Researchers have found a way to enhance the precision of climate change models for the Global South by utilizing historical data gathered by missionaries and other travelers.
An international team, spearheaded by researchers from McGill University, has discovered a method to enhance the precision of climate change models for the Global South by incorporating historical data maintained by missionaries and other visitors.
A collaborative group of experts from various fields, including climate scientists, data analysts, and a historian, combined information from 19th century records of missionaries in Tanzania with contemporary data from climate models for the region. They developed a technique to quantify these historical records, which were mainly anecdotal rather than scientifically documented. This initiative yielded a more extended record of climate changes in the area than what was previously accessible, thereby boosting the reliability of climate change models. Their findings were recently published in Climate of the Past.
“The general scientific oversight of the Global South is just beginning to be addressed by institutions in these areas,” stated Philip Gooding, a researcher at McGill’s Indian Ocean World Centre and the principal author of the study. “Tanzania exemplifies many tropical regions in the Global South where evidence of climatic changes prior to the mid-20th century has yet to be collected or analyzed,” he added. “This challenge stems partly from the difficulties of climate change research in such areas. For instance, conducting tree ring analysis in tropical zones is challenging as many tropical species do not form annual rings or show different responses to climate fluctuations. Additionally, lake sediment analysis tends to reveal multi-decadal trends rather than seasonal or annual climate conditions.” Thus, the researchers turned to historical documents.
Missionaries and explorers observe changing rainfall and drought patterns
The team examined historical climate data for the towns of Ujiji, Tabora, and Mpwapwa in central Tanzania, covering the period from 1856 to 1890. These towns share similar latitudes, rainfall duration, and seasonal months.
European “explorers” and early imperialists began traversing the region in the late 1850s, documenting their weather observations and gathering climatic information from local communities about past seasons and years. From the 1870s onward, representatives from various European missionary societies began to stay longer, providing a more consistent and dependable source of climate information, as noted by the researchers.
A detailed record of rainfall trends over 30 years in the 19th century
While the Europeans’ letters and diaries varied widely in the details documented, they were keen on recording climate conditions, including rainfall variability, drought, flooding, and the state of pastures and harvests.
The data gathered between 1856 and 1890 offers valuable insights into long-term climate trends, especially when combined with modeled data.
Complex origins and lasting implications of the information
The researchers acknowledge the complex legacy and issues surrounding the historical data source.
“Missionary narratives regarding the struggles brought on by drought served as one of the foundations for European interventions in African matters, often failing to enhance drought resilience. This narrative was heavily racialized and problematic, reducing the colonized peoples to a state of childlike dependency,” Gooding mentioned.
Nonetheless, incorporating this historical data into climate models can lead to improved accuracy, as per Gooding’s belief. He is confident that the methodology developed in this research can be broadly applied across the Global South.
“Relying solely on climate model data is quite uncertain due to the lack of observations in this region,” said Melissa Lazenby, a climatologist from the University of Sussex and co-author of the article. “By integrating documentary data with climate modeling data, this research offers a more substantial and credible representation of historical events in such areas. Consequently, this enhances the validation of climate models in this data-sparse region and contributes to more accurate and reliable future projections.”
