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HomeLocalArctic Invasion: The Surprising Shift from Mild Winter Forecasts

Arctic Invasion: The Surprising Shift from Mild Winter Forecasts

 

 

A Frigid Arctic Invasion Is Upon the US. What Happened to the Predictions of a Warm Winter?


Are you wishing for a warm spell in January? You might be disappointed.

 

Weren’t we expecting a winter that was milder than usual for the Eastern and Southern regions? “Cozy” is definitely not the word to describe the bitter cold that’s on the way.

“Several waves of frigid Arctic air are continuing to build over northern Canada, targeting the central and eastern US in the upcoming days and weeks,” said AccuWeather meteorologist Paul Pastelok.

The most intense cold front will strike the north-central US on Friday, as per the National Weather Service, sweeping across much of the country over the weekend. The Arctic air will move in from the northern Rockies and Great Plains, traveling through the Gulf Coast and Midwest on Saturday night and reaching the Eastern Seaboard by Sunday night.

“By Tuesday, the entire continental US will be hit by extreme Arctic cold. The early days of the new Trump administration will have a significant focus on weather emergencies,” posted meteorologist Ryan Maue on X this week.

 

Even certain areas on the west coast of Greenland are expected to be warmer than parts of Texas, he mentioned.

“It’s essential to start getting ready for a prolonged period of cold weather,” the weather service cautioned.

How low will the temperatures drop?

As usual, the most severe cold will be felt in the northern Plains and upper Midwest, where some areas might experience high temperatures below zero next Sunday and Monday. Low temperatures could drop to 20 degrees below zero or even further.

 

Wind chill factors will make it feel even colder and more perilous.

“Dangerously low wind chills are anticipated” in North Dakota, with potential readings of 40 degrees below zero expected on both Sunday and Monday mornings, according to the weather service. “This poses a severe risk of hypothermia and frostbite for exposed skin. Always carry a cold-weather emergency kit when traveling.”

Meteorologist Paul Douglas from Minnesota shared on X that “This isn’t exaggerated hype: the frigid air arriving Sunday through Tuesday originates from Siberia. Prepare for subzero highs on Sunday and Monday with wind chill warnings of -20 to -30°F. This could be the chilliest air of the winter.”

 

Chilly forecasts

In New York City, next week’s highs are expected to stay mainly in the 20s, with nighttime temperatures dropping to the 10s. “There’s a chance that on at least one day, temperatures may barely reach 20 degrees, and overnight lows could fall into the single digits,” said AccuWeather meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.

 

In Atlanta, temperatures are predicted to be in the 30s for the first part of next week but may see a recovery later on. Overnight lows may remain in the 20s starting Monday when the Arctic air moves in.

In Houston, a few days may see temperatures not exceeding 40 degrees with nights dropping into the 20s or close to freezing, creating the potential for a hard freeze. “Hard freezes can be hazardous for people, pets, plants, and plumbing,” warned the weather service in Houston. Sosnowski noted that “at this level, which is 20-25 degrees below the historical average, exposed or unheated pipes could freeze and burst.”

In Chicago, at least one day is likely to bring temperatures peaking in the single digits, as indicated by AccuWeather. Multiple nights of subzero temperatures are also expected next week. “This new spell of cold weather could lead to an increased risk of ice jams on local rivers next week,” the weather service in Chicago stated.

 

What about snow?

Accompanying the harsh cold, there will be several opportunities for snowfall across central, southern, and eastern US. A potentially significant storm is anticipated for next week in the South: “The path and strength of this storm will determine whether heavy snow affects parts of the Southern states and whether any of that snow reaches the Mid-Atlantic around the middle of next week,” noted Sosnowski.

 

Does this cold snap align with the preseason winter forecast?

The federal government’s winter forecast—which covered December, January, and February—predicted a warmer-than-normal winter for the southern and eastern US. So far, January has been quite frigid, especially in the eastern half of the country, while December recorded the fourth warmest temperatures on record nationwide.

 

Thus, the evaluation on NOAA’s preseason temperature prediction remains inconclusive. “I usually feel cautious making winter predictions with months still left in the season,” stated NOAA meteorologist Tom DiLiberto in a recent email to YSL News. “We’ve seen in previous years how one month can significantly affect the overall winter pattern.”

Concerning precipitation, he mentioned that “thus far this winter, the observed patterns in the US, including drier conditions in the southern regions and wetter ones in the Pacific Northwest, are in line with the historically expected La Niña pattern, and generally consistent with the winter outlook provided in November 2024.”