While climate change is poised to create significant obstacles for agriculture in the upcoming decades, it may also pave the way for the cultivation of crops like chickpeas, soybeans, and oranges throughout the UK. By the year 2080, locally made hummus, tofu, and marmalade could become common items in our grocery stores. A recent study indicates that the rising temperatures in the UK could make it feasible to grow various crops such as oranges, chickpeas, and okra, which traditionally thrive in warmer regions.
Although climate change is expected to pose major challenges for agriculture in the next few decades, it might also lead to an increase in the cultivation of crops like chickpeas, soybeans, and oranges across the UK. By 2080, products such as homemade hummus, tofu, and marmalade could be regular features on our supermarket shelves.
A comprehensive study, conducted by the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH) in partnership with the University of East Anglia (UEA), forecasts that warmer temperatures in the UK will create favorable conditions for growing a variety of crops, including oranges, chickpeas, and okra, which are typically associated with warmer climates.
The research examined the potential suitability of over 160 established and new food crops in various UK regions under two warming scenarios: one of 2 degrees Celsius and another of 4 degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial climate conditions.
This modeling study is regarded as the most thorough of its kind to date and is unique in illustrating how the suitability for certain crops may differ throughout the UK. It provides mapped projections for every 1km square in the UK, offering crucial insights to the agricultural and food sectors regarding future opportunities and challenges in cultivating new crops.
Need for resilience
Dr. John Redhead, the lead author and a Spatial Ecologist at UKCEH, stated, “As our climate is predicted to undergo significant changes over the next few decades coinciding with an increasing food demand driven by population growth, it is vital that arable farming becomes more resilient. One approach to achieve this is by growing different crops that are better suited to the evolving local conditions.”
Climate change is already profoundly affecting agriculture in the UK, impacting both crop growth and farmers’ management capabilities. There have been multiple instances of record low yields due to extreme weather conditions, often involving a combination of factors such as a wet winter followed by an exceptionally dry spring. Additionally, new agricultural pests and diseases are either becoming established or are increasing as a result of climate change.
Winners and losers
The study highlights that many of the new crops identified by UKCEH, which received funding from UK Research & Innovation (UKRI) and were published in the journal Climate Resilience and Sustainability, are not only more adaptable to hotter, drier summers but also thrive in milder, wetter winters.
Researchers examined whether future climate scenarios would either improve or diminish suitability for various crops when compared to recent average temperatures in the UK, which are currently estimated to be around 0.5 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial levels. The key findings include:
- Climate change will enhance the suitability for many existing and potential new crops across much of the UK.
- However, some staple crops may become more challenging to cultivate in the South East and East Anglia, which are the UK’s most productive arable regions. Under 2 degrees of warming, wheat and strawberries are expected to face decreasing suitability, and at 4 degrees, other major crops like onions and oats will also likely struggle.
- Significant increases in the suitability for a variety of crops that are not currently widely cultivated in the UK, such as sunflowers, durum wheat, soybeans, cow peas, citrus fruits, okra, and even wine grapes, are anticipated.
Diversity offers multiple benefits
The authors of the study emphasize that the global food supply relies heavily on a limited number of crops, and enhancing crop diversity would strengthen food security by improving resilience to climate change.
Moreover, there could be beneficial effects on biodiversity and overall diet quality. Legumes like chickpeas and soybeans, which have recently registered their first commercial harvests in the UK, are vital sources of protein. This could support a transition from excessive meat consumption towards a more balanced diet with a reduced carbon footprint. Additionally, legumes enrich the soil with nitrogen, thereby minimizing the need for fertilizers.
Risks and challenges
While the changing climate in the UK is anticipated to favor a range of new crops, the study indicates that the areas with the most significant benefits will be in the southwest and Scottish borders, where the advantages of rising temperatures outweigh the potential water shortages during summer, particularly under the 4-degree warming scenario.
Nonetheless, many regions outside South East and East Anglia feature smaller field sizes, varied topography, and distances from current food processing and supply chains, which may hinder the transition to new production areas. Additionally, there are economic risks associated with adopting new agricultural practices and technologies, as well as environmental risks tied to moving crops to novel locations, such as impacts on pollinators, wild relatives of crops, and pests.
Dr. Redhead remarked, “It is clear that simply relocating large-scale food production from southeastern England to Scotland, for instance, isn’t a practical solution. However, climate change is already taking place, and its effects will escalate by 2080. Thus, any actions we take will involve considerable challenges related to our food sources and the management of agricultural landscapes.”
Solutions
Approaches to address the challenges outlined in the study include:
- Conducting further research into the feasibility of crops deemed ‘winners.’
- Modifying agricultural supply and distribution networks to better assist farmers in growing new crops in different locations.
- Implementing new agricultural methods like paludiculture (wet farming) and indoor vertical farming.
- Developing and cultivating more heat- and drought-resistant varieties of existing staple crops.
While it is impossible to definitively predict whether a specific crop will be viable or profitable in 2080, this study fills a knowledge gap regarding the climatic suitability of crops in identified regions, which currently restricts the adoption of new varieties.
Co-author Professor Rachel Warren from the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at UEA stated, “Without this kind of data, our agricultural systems risk becoming ‘locked in’ to current crops, with adaptations failing to keep pace with the effects of climate change, or relying on methods that worsen its impacts, such as excessive irrigation leading to increased water scarcity.
“Fundamental changes to agricultural systems and diets can take many years to implement, which makes our long-term forecasts essential for farmers, supermarkets, researchers, policymakers, and the public to understand the potential opportunities, challenges, and trade-offs in adapting to the effects of climate change.”
The authors of the study assert that their approach to evaluating how climate change influences crop suitability could be applicable to other countries as well.
