Based on the emission reduction commitments made by various countries, it is expected that global temperatures could rise by 2.7 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial times by the end of this century. A recent review paper emphasizes the significant transformation this would bring to the Arctic, which is experiencing the most rapid warming on the planet.
In 2024, the global average air temperature exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels for the first time, leading to severe weather events, including unprecedented rainfall and flooding in the Sahara Desert, as well as extreme heat waves worldwide. Nevertheless, the rise in global temperatures is not expected to halt there. With the current commitments from nations to limit their greenhouse gas emissions, a rise of 2.7 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels is anticipated by the century’s end. This scenario would lead to significant changes in the Arctic, the region warming the fastest on Earth.
A new review article published in Science on February 7, 2025, sheds light on these transformations and their wide-ranging effects. The paper, titled “Disappearing landscapes: The Arctic at +2.7°C global warming,” was authored by Julienne Stroeve, a senior research scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) and a professor at the Centre for Earth Observation Science at the University of Manitoba.
“The Arctic is warming at four times the rate of the rest of the planet,” stated Stroeve. “If global temperatures reach 2.7 degrees Celsius, we can expect to see more severe and cascading impacts in this region than anywhere else, including summers without sea ice, faster melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, extensive permafrost loss, and more extreme temperatures in the air. These alterations will wreak havoc on infrastructure, ecosystems, vulnerable communities, and wildlife.”
In the review, the authors utilized the Sixth Assessment Report from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change as a foundation. They updated findings related to three key aspects of the Arctic environment: sea ice, the Greenland Ice Sheet, and permafrost, highlighting existing research that confirms anticipated changes in the area.
With a temperature increase of 2.7 degrees Celsius, the Arctic region is likely to face the following consequences:
- Nearly every day of the year will see air temperatures surpassing pre-industrial extremes.
- The Arctic Ocean will likely be ice-free for several months each summer.
- The portion of the Greenland Ice Sheet experiencing surface temperatures above 0 degrees Celsius for more than a month will quadruple compared to pre-industrial times, leading to a faster rise in global sea levels.
- Surface-level permafrost will decrease by 50% relative to pre-industrial levels.
“Our paper indicates that humanity currently possesses the ability to erase entire landscapes from our planet’s surface,” remarked Dirk Notz, a professor specializing in polar research at the University of Hamburg and a co-author of the study. “It would be remarkable if we could acknowledge this power and the responsibility that accompanies it, as the fate of the Arctic genuinely depends on us.”
Other co-authors of the paper included Jackie Dawson from the University of Ottawa, Edward A.G. Schuur from Northern Arizona University, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen from the University of Manitoba and the University of Copenhagen, and Céline Giesse from the University of Hamburg. The study received funding from various sources, with the largest portion of Stroeve’s support coming from the Canada 150 Research Chairs Program, C150 grant 50296. Data from NSIDC’s Sea Ice Today and Ice Sheets Today projects were incorporated into the review.
