The Bayesian embarked on a leisurely journey along the southern coast of Italy on a bright day in late July.

This opulent super yacht, featuring one of the tallest masts globally and accommodating a crew of elite individuals, including British tech entrepreneur Mike Lynch and his family, as well as a chair from Morgan Stanley, left the Amalfi Coast headed for Sicily.

Remarkably, within a month, the vessel sank to a depth of 160 feet, resulting in the death of its cook and leaving six passengers, including at least two Americans, unaccounted for, triggering a significant search operation that garnered worldwide attention.

Specialists are now investigating the events that led to the Bayesian being swiftly submerged beneath the waves during a storm that was said to have generated at least one tornado over the sea.

Experts attribute Bayesian’s sinking to a perfect storm

The rare combination of circumstances that may have led to the yacht’s demise has been described as a “black swan event” by Matthew Schanck, chairman of the Maritime Search and Rescue Council, in a discussion with YSL News.

The Bayesian was constructed in 2008 by the Italian shipbuilding company Perini and met all international maritime standards, earning commercial certification from the U.K.’s Maritime and Coastguard Agency, according to Schanck.

The severe weather conditions present when the yacht sank were unusual for the northern Mediterranean, an area typically not known for extended significant storms, Schanck noted.

He added, “It is quite remarkable that these two factors culminated in the sinking of a super yacht. Such incidents are not commonplace.”

The yacht went under just before 5 a.m. local time, with 15 individuals, including a 1-year-old, rescued from the water. Some were retrieved from a life raft by the crew of a nearby docked ship.

Authorities reported that Ricardo Thomas, the vessel’s cook from Antigua, was found deceased.

As of Tuesday, six individuals remained unaccounted for, including Lynch and his 18-year-old daughter. Some of the missing passengers had connections to Lynch’s recent fraud trial, such as Jonathan Bloomer, a chair at Morgan Stanley who testified on his behalf, and one of Lynch’s lawyers. Lynch had been acquitted of all charges after selling his company to Hewlett-Packard.

Tornado emerged over unusually warm waters

Meteorologists suggest that storms that evening may have spawned a water spout, which is essentially a tornado occurring over the water.

Rick Shema, a certified meteorologist and former Navy member, indicated that the unusual warmth of the water was likely a contributing factor.

“The water spout was indeed an unusual event,” he stated, “yet such phenomena tend to occur more frequently in warmer waters.”

The sea temperature was recorded at 83.7 degrees, over 3 degrees hotter than average on the day of the sinking, likely influenced by climate change, Shema observed.

“Hurricanes can develop at water temperatures of around 80 degrees. This was nearly four degrees above that,” he explained.

Shema explained that the water spout may have originated when cooler air from the mountains mixed with the heated water, creating a fast-spinning vortex that lifted water and moisture.

Although these water spouts reach speeds of around 120 mph—much less than tornadoes on land, which can exceed 300 mph—Shema noted, “You don’t need 200 mph winds to sink a vessel.”

A water spout at an average speed of 120 mph is certainly powerful enough to potentially tip a ship over,” he articulated, adding, “The sudden onset of a water spout can catch crews off-guard, especially if winds were initially calm.”

Shema remarked that prior to daybreak, the crew of the yacht may not have been able to perceive the water spout approaching due to limited visibility.

With the yacht’s windows likely open in the warm weather, the rising water from the spout could have flooded the interiors through the portholes, leading to the sinking.

The search continues, but a shift towards recovery is imminent

According to Italian officials, it seems the Bayesian was anchored when the storm hit, preventing the yacht from adjusting to the waves, as noted by Mitchell Stoller, a captain and maritime expert witness. Ships that activated their engines during the storm were better able to navigate the conditions, he remarked.

“When you’re at anchor and bad weather approaches, it’s essential to start your engines and position the bow against the wind,” he advised, “instead of allowing the wind to hit the side of the vessel.”

Schanck highlighted that an important factor to consider is the location of the keel, a substantial weight located at the bottom of the boat that helps maintain its balance. When the ship sank, the position of the keel could have influenced the boat’s stability. Schanck noted, “If you lift it, that will raise the vessel’s center of gravity, affecting stability.”

At the time, the Bayesian was situated over 160 feet of water, deep enough for the keel to normally be in position. However, Schanck expressed doubt due to the “heavily tilted” state of the vessel.

Experts believe the root cause of the tragedy may remain unidentified until a thorough examination of the ship can be conducted. Authorities in a nearby area have begun an investigation.

According to Schanck, once the operation transitions to a recovery phase, investigators will have ample information to analyze. “The vessel is undamaged and in good shape on the ocean floor,” he remarked. “Numerous eyewitness accounts from nearby boats and the shore will also aid in the investigation.”

As the search operation entered its second day on Tuesday, it is likely that focus may soon shift towards recovery. “I anticipate that later today or by tomorrow, there will be an announcement regarding recovery operations,” Schanck indicated.

The transition to recovery will depend on whether rescuers can detect signs of life within the vessel and locate any air pockets or areas that might provide survivable conditions. Currently, the possibility of finding survivors on the water’s surface is slim. “In my professional view, casualties are likely to be inside the ship,” he stated.

He emphasized, “In every maritime search and rescue situation, there’s a balance between risk and benefit. As we shift to a recovery phase, that balance will change.”

Contributing: Reuters