Traditionally, the Native American Lumbee vote has leaned Democratic in North Carolina, but this pattern is shifting.

Robeson County, located in the southern battleground state, is home to the largest Native American tribe east of the Mississippi River—the Lumbee—who make up about 42% of the county’s population. For years, a Democratic vote was ingrained in their culture.

However, in both 2016 and 2020, Robeson County supported Donald Trump.

This change is significant as “Native voters generally tend to be very Democratic and progressive,” noted Jordan James Harvill, a Cherokee tribal member and the national program director for Advance Native Political Leadership.

This is evident in voter registration data, which shows that the largest voting bloc among Native American and all registered voters in the county is Democratic. Yet, the county’s transition from blue to red aligns with a broader trend observed in several areas.

The American Communities Project, which analyzes demographic data, categorized Robeson as Native American Land—areas with significant Native populations—and found that “President Donald Trump secured a win in these counties by approximately seven percentage points in 2020, flipping Barack Obama’s three-point win in 2012.”

Though the Native American vote is not monolithic, it could be crucial in pivotal elections. Vice President Kamala Harris, the presumptive Democratic nominee, likely needs the support of this community to reclaim Robeson County.

“Native communities are poised to be a critical voting bloc in this election, potentially swaying the outcome in places like Arizona and North Carolina,” Harvill emphasized.

The reasons behind this once strong Democratic community’s recent support for Trump are intricate but include enhanced Republican campaign engagement, a stress on traditional Christian values, and a community orientation valuing personal connections over party loyalty.

Rhonda Dial, 55, has been a lifelong resident of Robeson County and had voted Democrat ever since she was eligible. She recalled her grandmother teaching her: “We vote Democrat because it’s the party that cares for the poor.”

That belief changed this year when she and her husband Anthony Dial, 55, decided to register as unaffiliated voters.

The Dials chose this path to better reflect their voting style: prioritizing whom they feel most connected with in their community, regardless of political party.

Having met in high school and now parents to three children and eight grandchildren, the Dials supported Trump in 2016 and plan to do so again this November, observing a growing momentum for the Republican party in their area.

Voter turnout in Robeson County was low, at only 19% during the 2024 North Carolina presidential primary, about five percentage points below the statewide turnout rate.

Due to the county’s diverse demographic and low participation rates, Debra Cleaver, founder and CEO of Vote America, explained that it’s tricky to gauge whether the beliefs of the Lumbee people or the county as a whole have changed significantly. Instead, the recent voting shifts could indicate that different segments of the population are participating in elections.

Personal Connections Over Political Parties

Rhonda Dial has been politically engaged since childhood, growing up in a tight-knit community where her father served two terms as tribal chairman. She was expected to participate in electoral processes like working at polling stations and canvassing neighborhoods.

Her emphasis has consistently been on fostering trust and engaging in political matters, rather than strict loyalty to a particular party.

She has cast her votes for both Democratic and Republican candidates, and while her political preferences may vary, sometimes even splitting her votes, one thing remains clear: her allegiance lies with the connections she has within her community, not dictated by party labels.

To illustrate her point, Rhonda Dial highlighted the political history of Robeson County.

She reminisced about her first vote for North Carolina state Rep. Charles Graham, a Lumbee Democrat who served from 2011 until 2023. She trusted Graham, which led her to support him, and he just happened to be from the Democratic Party.

Before Graham, there was North Carolina state Rep. Ronnie Sutton, another Lumbee Democrat, who held office from 1993 to 2011 and whom Rhonda Dial referred to affectionately as ‘Mr. Ronnie.’

“He and my father were good friends,” Rhonda shared. “I grew up knowing Mr. Ronnie, so we had a lot of trust in him. Being a Democrat didn’t matter; we supported him because we believed in him.”

Now, the county’s representation includes three Republicans: Sen. Danny Britt, Rep. Jarrod Lowery, and Rep. Brenden Jones. The Dials spoke positively about their representatives, particularly appreciating Lowery, who is the brother of the current Lumbee tribal chairman, John Lowery.

Currently, these are the politicians the Dials have faith in.

James Hunt, a 79-year-old Democratic businessman, veteran, and Lumbee member, remarked that the Republican leaders in Robeson County have built strong relationships and earned the community’s trust.

When there’s a need for assistance or a solution to a community issue, you reach out to your representative, he explained, stressing that party affiliation matters less if they deliver results.

“When it’s time to cast your vote, what do you do?” Hunt pondered. “You tend to recall those past experiences. Over the last 20 years, this has slowly changed.”

This indicates that recent years have seen a shift towards Republican representation, fostering trust in the party and influencing voting choices across the board.

Christian Beliefs

In addition to valuing community ties, some Lumbee individuals feel overlooked by the Democratic Party, primarily attributing their discontent to “overly liberal” policies.

Lowery mentioned he frequently receives calls from constituents sharing this view.

“Many Lumbee folks will tell you that the Democratic Party has moved on from them,” Lowery remarked. “They feel the party no longer addresses issues that matter to them.”

Concerns such as access to healthcare, the ongoing opioid crisis, affordable housing, soaring gas prices, and the failure to recognize the Lumbee Tribe federally contribute to this disillusionment, according to Lowery. In contrast, he noted, the Democratic Party’s focus has shifted towards abortion and LGBTQ+ rights, which many in the community feel disconnected from and misaligned with their values.

For Gerald Goolsby, a 65-year-old Lumbee member and Tribal Council representative for District 2, his Christian faith profoundly influences his voting decisions.

Growing up in a community that traditionally cast Democratic votes, Goolsby eventually reevaluated his stances and found that they resonated more with the Republican Party. He cited his discomfort with the Democratic stance on abortion and LGBTQ+ rights due to his Christian values.

Christianity influences Lumbee member Hunt as well; however, he still supports Democratic candidates during elections.

Hunt believes that religion plays a significant role in why many of his neighbors are changing their party allegiance. While local churches refrain from making explicit political endorsements, they do engage in discussions about controversial issues like abortion and LGBTQ+ rights.

Local Investments from the Trumps

The Trump family has been actively involved in Robeson County over the past few years, especially during critical times of need.

In 2016, Co-Chair Lara Trump came to Robeson County shortly after Hurricane Matthew struck. According to Cara Pearson, the chair of the Robeson County Democratic Party, her visit significantly changed how voters viewed the Democratic Party. Residents began to notice the presence of Republicans and questioned the Democrats’ absence, which ultimately influenced their voting decisions.

Later, in 2018, Ivanka Trump traveled to Lumberton to lend a helping hand following Hurricane Florence.

In 2020, both Donald Trump Jr. and former President Donald Trump visited the county, openly advocating for federal recognition of the Lumbee tribe, which currently has only state acknowledgment—leaving them without access to federal resources available to other federally recognized tribes.

Harvill speculated that the Trump campaign’s interest in Robeson County stemmed from recognizing the need for broader voter support beyond just white voters. “They realize they must strategize on how to attract new voter coalitions,” Harvill noted. “This starts with the Latino community and extends to the Native community.”

Democrat Hunt remarked that while Trump knows how to energize a crowd, he often neglects crucial issues. “He engages the audience well, that much is true,” Hunt stated. “However, in my view, it’s mostly for show.”

Besides the Trump family’s engagement in the area, the Republican National Committee established a community center in Pembroke, the main hub for the Lumbee tribe. However, some Lumbee Democrats claim the community center hasn’t been of significant benefit to the local residents.

The visits from the Trump family may have also resonated with conservative voters in the county, who previously felt underrepresented by the Republican Party in North Carolina.

Unlike the predominantly Democratic registered Black and Native American voters in Robeson, the roughly 20,000 white voters in the area are fairly divided between the Democratic and Republican parties.

Ronnie Lamb, 53, a lifelong resident of Robeson County, works at Lumberton Barber Shop alongside his brother. The shop is adorned with taxidermy, plays the show Duck Dynasty, and clients wear barber capes featuring the American flag.

Lamb identifies as an unaffiliated voter but considers himself inherently conservative. He noted that while his personal beliefs have not changed much over the years, the transformation in his community has been remarkable.

“Two decades ago, associating with the ‘R’ party would have been a political death sentence,” Lamb remarked. “If you had an ‘R’ next to your name, you wouldn’t stand a chance at the polls.”

Harvill commented that Trump’s influence energized conservative voters while simultaneously dampening enthusiasm among Democrats.

“Democratic voters are losing enthusiasm for participating in elections as time goes on,” Harvill pointed out. “They may begin to feel that voting is no longer a way to bring about change, especially as Republicans keep winning these contests cycle after cycle.”

Will Democrats regain the county in 2024?

After two victories for Republicans in Robeson County, everyone is watching to see if the area will stay red or return to its Democratic origins.

Many people feel inspired and hopeful with Harris stepping in for President Joe Biden, but Harvill suggests she still needs to work hard to win over the Native vote.

“When Kamala announced her campaign for president following the president’s departure, she mentioned her desire to earn the electorate’s support, and we truly think she has significant work ahead to achieve that,” Harvill explained.

The Harris campaign plans to establish an office in Robeson County soon, adding to their existing locations — more than 15 throughout the state.

Harvill mentioned that Harris should focus on addressing Native American-specific issues such as mental health treatments, support for higher education, safety from violence, and workforce development.

“If she can achieve this along with establishing a strong local presence, I believe the outcome is up for grabs,” Harvill remarked.