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HomeLocalDeciding Factor: The Crucial 'Torn 20' Voters Who Will Shape the Trump-Harris...

Deciding Factor: The Crucial ‘Torn 20’ Voters Who Will Shape the Trump-Harris Faceoff

 

‘Torn 20’ voters, still undecided, will play a key role in determining if Trump or Harris wins


BOSTON ― The late economist and U.S. ambassador John Kenneth Galbraith famously stated, “Politics is the art of choosing between the disastrous and the unpalatable.”

 

You probably have a good idea about where your family, friends, and colleagues stand regarding the choice between what’s disastrous and what’s not-so-great this November. (I’ll let you decide which is which.) However, some people remain undecided. Common questions I get include:

  • “How can anyone still be undecided?”
  • “With RFK Jr. no longer in the race, why would voters still consider third-party options?”
  • “Are there really voters still caught between Harris and Trump?”

In a national poll by YSL News and Suffolk University conducted in August, we explored these concerns: we asked prospective voters who lean towards third-party candidates or remain undecided what was stopping them from casting their ballot for former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris.

 

Our findings revealed a group of voters (75 respondents, approximately 8%) who, with just two months until the election, are still undecided or prefer third-party candidates as both their first and second choices. This segment is nearly double the current gap between Harris and Trump, with Harris holding a lead of 47.6% to 43.3% over Trump.

 

The main takeaway? As summarized by YSL News’s Washington Bureau Chief Susan Page, “Voters are hesitant to back Harris mainly due to a lack of familiarity with her, while they’re reluctant to support Trump because they’re overly aware of him.”

 

Among the 75 participants, 55 come from states reliably red or blue, meaning their votes won’t make a significant difference in the outcome. This leaves 20 respondents in swing states, whom I’ve dubbed the “Torn Twenty.”

 

Votes in these swing states are crucial, as each poll participant represents hundreds, if not thousands, of other likely voters who might share similar opinions. The accompanying table outlines the characteristics (home state, gender, party affiliation, age) and personal reasons (in their own words) these voters have for not supporting Harris or Trump.

 

Who might ultimately be their choice? You can decide that:

The table provided is not a statistical analysis; rather, it seeks to understand the thought processes of swing state voters who, so far, have expressed their reluctance to support either Harris or Trump while indicating they do plan to vote. As pollsters, we can only capture the feelings of respondents and analyze their voting tendencies, but we must be cautious not to overgeneralize or draw inappropriate conclusions from the actual sentiments of likely voters.

 

 

The outcome of the 2024 election may hinge on these individuals navigating their hesitations about both Harris and Trump. The campaign that finds the perfect strategy to capture these voters’ support in the next eight weeks will likely emerge victorious. Essentially, this election comes down to a mixture of debate preparation, political tactics, an understanding of voter psychology, and a dash of luck.

Thus, we’ve illuminated the dilemma posed to pollsters (and candidates) in 2024: the evaluation of the disastrous versus the unpalatable.

 

David Paleologos is the director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center.