A tropical storm brewing in the Gulf of Mexico may transform into a weak Category 1 hurricane by Wednesday, forecasted to make landfall on the Upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana coasts.

After a period of calm, the National Hurricane Center reported a 90% chance of a tropical storm developing within 48 hours in their Sunday evening update.

A tropical storm watch was declared for southern Texas, stretching from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande River, indicating potential tropical storm winds along the coast by Tuesday evening. A similar watch is in effect along the Mexican coastline down to Barra del Tordo.

The system was located approximately 320 miles southeast of the Rio Grande and about 550 miles south of Cameron, Louisiana, as of Sunday night. With sustained winds around 50 mph, the elongated system was moving slowly at merely 5 mph in a north-northwest direction.

The hurricane center anticipates that this system will evolve into a tropical storm on Monday, with conditions favorable for a storm in the watch zone along the northeastern coast of Mexico and the southern tip of Texas.

If no other systems ahead of it in the tropical Atlantic develop, this storm will be designated as the sixth named storm of the 2024 season and will be called Francine. Hurricane and tropical storm watches are likely to be issued for the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts on Monday.

This system, identified as Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, is among three systems being monitored by the hurricane center. Another system in the central tropical Atlantic has a 60% chance of becoming a tropical storm within the next 48 hours, while a third system further east holds a 50% development chance over the week ahead.

The current forecast predicts the storm will reach low-end Category 1 hurricane status by Wednesday, with winds expected to peak at 80 mph. Rainfall estimates suggest totals of 4 to 8 inches along the coast, with some areas in northeastern Mexico and along the Texas and Louisiana coasts potentially receiving up to 12 inches through Thursday, raising the risk of flash flooding, according to the center.

The Gulf of Mexico system is projected to increase its speed northeastward by late Tuesday as it interacts with a cold front along the coast. It could be positioned just offshore from the Texas coast, moving towards a possible landfall along either the upper Texas or Louisiana coast on Wednesday, as explained by Donald Jones, a meteorologist in the National Weather Service office in Lake Charles, Louisiana, during a Sunday night briefing.

Jones cautioned residents in southwestern Louisiana to stay updated on the weather, indicating the possibility that the storm could strengthen into a Category 2 hurricane. Currently, landfall appears imminent on Wednesday evening along the southwestern Louisiana coast, he noted.

Jones reported that the Gulf waters are warmer than usual, which may facilitate hurricane development. Once a well-defined center is established, the hurricane center indicated that steady intensification could occur. However, the storm may face increased wind shear and slightly drier air that could hinder significant strengthening.

“We anticipate 8 to 12 inches of rain south of Interstate 10 in southwestern Louisiana,” Jones pointed out.

Currently, the most pressing threat is flooding, according to Jones. The tropical storm’s path shifted slightly eastward on Sunday and could continue to adjust further east.