The research reveals how climate change and natural weather fluctuations can result in rapid shifts over decades in both extreme temperatures and rainfall.
A significant portion, nearly 75% of the global population, is expected to face swift and intense changes in extreme temperatures and rainfall within the next two decades if substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions do not occur, as indicated by a recent study.
Conducted by experts from the CICERO Center for International Climate Research in collaboration with the University of Reading, the study finds that with sufficient emission cuts to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, about 20% of the global population might encounter extreme weather threats, compared to a staggering 70% if actions taken are minimal.
The recently released research in the journal Nature Geoscience illustrates how global warming can interrelate with typical weather variations, leading to rapid changes in extreme weather conditions over decades.
Few studies have addressed how extreme weather will affect various countries. According to Dr. Carley Iles, the primary author from CICERO, “We concentrate on regional variations, as they are more relevant to people’s experiences and ecosystems when compared to global averages, and we identify areas likely to experience significant changes in extreme event rates in the coming decades.”
Unprecedented conditions
This study utilized extensive climate modeling simulations, indicating that vast areas of the tropics and subtropics, housing 70% of the global population, are projected to undergo significant increases in both temperature and precipitation extremes over the next 20 years, particularly under a high-emission scenario. If strong emissions reductions are implemented, this number could fall to around 20%, impacting approximately 1.5 billion people.
These swift changes pose a heightened risk of extraordinary conditions and extreme events, which currently contribute significantly to the observable impacts of climate change. For instance, heatwaves can result in heat stress and increased mortality rates among humans and livestock, adversely affecting ecosystems, lowering agricultural productivity, complicating cooling operations at power plants, and disrupting transportation. Likewise, extreme rainfall can lead to flooding that damages homes, infrastructure, crops, and ecosystems, increases erosion, and deteriorates water quality. Consequently, society appears particularly susceptible to rapid changes in extreme weather, especially when faced with multiple simultaneous hazards.
Clean-up risks
Dr. Laura Wilcox, a co-author from the University of Reading, stated, “We also discovered that swiftly addressing air pollution, predominantly in Asia, correlates with accelerated increases in warm extremes and impacts the Asian summer monsoons. While improving air quality is essential for health, air pollution has obscured some effects of global warming. Thus, the necessary clean-up could intensify along with global warming, leading to striking changes in extreme weather conditions in the forthcoming decades.”
Although the focus of the new paper is on the possibility of rapid change, the authors highlight that these findings carry significant consequences for climate adaptation. “In the most favorable scenario, we predict that rapid changes will impact 1.5 billion individuals. The only way to confront this challenge is to prepare for a future with a much higher probability of extraordinary extreme weather events, likely within the next one to two decades,” emphasizes Dr. Bjørn H. Samset from the CICERO Center for International Climate Research, who contributed to the study.
