OMAHA – As you drive through Omaha, the largest city in Nebraska, it’s hard to miss the white signs featuring a simple blue circle adorning numerous front yards. These signs, though unbranded and wordless, have turned into a recognizable emblem of Democratic support in this traditionally Republican state, all thanks to Jason Brown’s first sign in his yard.

This “blue dot,” as Democrats have dubbed it, reflects the electoral importance of Nebraska’s 2nd District. They aspire to present these symbols to Vice President Kamala Harris. Since the initial blue dot appeared at the end of August, Brown and his wife, Ruth, have been inundated with requests for similar signs from locals and supporters throughout the state.

“I was unaware of how much people wanted validation that their vote truly matters in our district,” Brown remarked. “It’s sparked a fascinating conversation. Notably, here in CD-2, it’s a great way to showcase that Nebraska is getting recognized and discussed.”

Meanwhile, in another part of town, volunteers reached out to voters from the Trump campaign’s headquarters, located in a strip mall. Among them is Carolyn Neopdal, a retired nurse who recently joined the campaign and has been canvassing neighborhoods.

“I might be busy, but I’m dedicating time to this effort because I believe it’s vital for us to reclaim this country and secure a win for Trump, especially in this district,” Neopdal stated. “Thus, I am putting in the effort and engaging with the community.”

Despite their differing political views, residents in the area backing either Harris or Trump acknowledge that the results of the presidential election could very well depend on this specific district.

Unlike the remaining states, where the winner receives all electoral votes, Maine and Nebraska utilize a proportional method for electing their representatives.

Current polls in Nebraska’s 2nd District indicate Harris is leading Trump by approximately eight points, as reported by the Nebraska Examiner.

With fewer than eight weeks left until the election, both Republicans and Democrats are fiercely competing for Nebraska’s lone electoral vote, which could be pivotal in deciding the winner who reaches the crucial 270 electoral votes needed to become president.

The intense political rivalry

Both the Trump and Harris campaigns have established a presence in the district for several months, but they have recently intensified their activities, investing heavily in grassroots operations and dispatching surrogates to assert their influence in the area. Acknowledging the significance of Nebraska in the election, both campaigns are treating it as a vital battleground.

While many congressional districts can typically be predicted to lean towards either party, Nebraska’s 2nd District stands out as one of the few remaining truly competitive districts in the U.S., according to Barry Burden, a political science professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

“Even with the transition from Biden to Harris, it seems this district has the potential to be a key factor in the electoral college, especially if Harris maintains the support of the three Midwestern states often referred to as the ‘blue wall,'” Burden elaborated.

Nebraska’s distinctive electoral system gained national attention in April when conservatives, including Trump, urged Governor Jim Pillen to promote a bill in the legislature to reinstate the state winner-take-all system. Although the bill lacked sufficient support, there remains speculation that Pillen might call for a special legislative session to pursue it.

Prior to Biden’s exit from the race, his campaign appointed Nebraska organizers Precious McKesson and Meg Mandy as senior advisors in the state. Since Harris announced her candidacy in July, her campaign has invested over $1.3 million in advertising in Omaha’s television market, while Trump’s ads have not aired since January, according to filings from the Federal Communications Commission.

Nonetheless, the Trump campaign remains enthusiastic.

Last month, they opened a field office in Omaha, where they hosted several phone banking sessions and door-knocking initiatives.

Michael Whatley, the chair of the Republican National Convention, visited the district as part of the Protect the Vote tour, which prioritized election integrity. Attendees were trained on poll observation. Even though there were no reported cases of voter fraud in Nebraska during the last presidential election, Whatley aims to bolster confidence among Republican voters who feel their votes are undervalued.

“We will be focusing our efforts in several battleground states, particularly in a couple of congressional districts that warrant our attention, one being in Maine and this one in Nebraska,” Whatley informed the audience.

The competitive landscape in Nebraska’s 2nd District extends beyond the presidential race. Representative Don Bacon, known for being one of Congress’s more centrist Republicans, is once again challenged by Democratic state Senator Tony Vargas.

Bacon first defeated Vargas in 2020 by nearly three points, but national Democrats are optimistic about flipping the seat this November. Polls have frequently shifted between the candidates, and the Cook Political Report recently shifted its stance from leaning Republican to a toss-up. Both candidates are securing substantial campaign funds in hopes that the presidential election will enhance voter turnout.

In a district characterized by moderation, where both candidates maintain a centrist approach, Bacon voiced concerns that the choice of Republican presidential candidate might deter some independent and nonpartisan voters.

“It’s difficult to overcome if the top candidate is trailing significantly,” Bacon remarked. “I’d prefer our nominee to be former President Trump, but we need to concentrate on the important issues. Personality attacks do not resonate well in our district, and neither does name-calling, particularly in suburban America, especially in the Midwest.”

The Walz Influence

Nebraska is also notable for another reason: it is the home state of Tim Walz, the Democratic vice presidential nominee, which the Harris campaign believes could provide them a significant advantage.

Walz kickstarted his campaign as Harris’ vice presidential pick in Omaha, where he leveraged his Nebraska connections and emphasized local issues while criticizing Trump’s weak ties to the state.

“In Nebraska, we have a saying: ‘Nebraska, it’s not for everyone.’ Well, it undoubtedly isn’t for Donald Trump,” Walz stated.

Having grown up in various small towns in Nebraska, including West Point, Butte, and Valentine, Walz spent the majority of his life in the state. He attended Chadron State College, was a member of the Nebraska Army National Guard, and taught in Alliance, Nebraska, where he met his wife, Gwen.

Jane Kleeb, the chair of the Nebraska Democratic Party, believes Walz’s Midwest upbringing and relatable nature appeals to voters looking for authentic leadership.

“There’s this feeling that he doesn’t need a briefing book. We don’t have to provide him with a Carhartt t-shirt. He inherently understands it,” Kleeb mentioned. “This authenticity will significantly impact not only CD-2, which has a rural county component, but it will also resonate throughout the state and influence some of our lower-profile races.”

This election cycle isn’t solely focused on the Minnesota governor’s candidacy; the Midwest is center stage as the races heat up.

Senator JD Vance of Ohio, who is Donald Trump’s vice presidential candidate, also comes from the Midwest. Recently, Vance held a private fundraiser in Omaha, Nebraska, where he engaged with his supporters.

According to Randy Adkins, a political science professor at the University of Nebraska-Omaha, the choice of Walz as a candidate will positively impact their prospects in the 2nd District, particularly among moderate and nonpartisan voters.

“I wouldn’t claim that Republicans are suddenly swayed to vote for Harris simply because of Tim Walz. It’s more about people recognizing the values and straightforwardness associated with Midwestern principles, which resonate well in this region. Setting aside specific issues and positions, I believe this approach is very effective here.”

However, Bacon, who understands the centrist tendencies of the district, argues that Walz’s Nebraska background may not influence voters as much as anticipated, especially regarding his record as governor of Minnesota.

“I feel fortunate that the Democrats did not select Shapiro. I believe he would have had a greater impact in my competitive district,” Bacon remarked. “When it comes to policy, I don’t think Walz will be well-received here. His Nebraska ties might have been a minor advantage, but once we delve into policy matters, they skew too far left for our district.”

Ryan Wilkins, a contributor to the Blue Dot Energy Facebook page, is thrilled to have a Nebraskan candidate and feels this adds excitement to what he describes as one of the most energized campaigns the district has seen.

“For me, it felt like a huge relief, as if a burden was lifted off my shoulders, reflecting my concerns as an American citizen and as a father who desires a democratic future for my daughters,” Wilkins expressed. “I recognize that there’s a possibility my hometown could play a crucial role in this election, and that’s not even an outlandish thought.”