During the summer, Americans were on the edge of their seats awaiting two significant political declarations.

The first remark came from Taylor Swift, who endorsed Kamala Harris as she rose to the forefront of the Democratic Party after Joe Biden stepped back from his reelection efforts. Swift showed her support for the vice president right after her debate with Donald Trump, labeling her a “steady-handed, gifted leader.”

The second awaited announcement didn’t come from another celebrity but was from Allan Lichtman, a 77-year-old renowned history professor at American University based in Bethesda, Maryland.

Lichtman has successfully predicted the outcomes of nearly every presidential election over the past few decades, with the exception of the 2000 election. His predictions are based on a set of 13 “keys” that encompass various factors from the economy to the candidates’ appeal.

His model operates on a simple principle: if six or more keys favor the opposing party, the party currently in the White House is likely to lose. If not, he predicts they will win a second term.

Earlier this month, Lichtman predicted that Harris would win against Trump, creating a stir among political analysts and garnering extensive news coverage. He mentioned to YSL News that the reaction to his 2024 prediction is larger than any previous year.

“Perhaps because this election is particularly high-stakes and extraordinary: the sitting president stepping down right before the convention, and the challenger facing 34 felony convictions,” Lichtman stated.

“This has triggered an avalanche.”

Why are Americans captivated by political predictions?

Lichtman’s work stands out from typical academic research, and he has attracted significant attention over the years. But can a rigid history professor truly become an A-list election figure every four years?

A quick search for Lichtman online reveals a plethora of videos of him discussing his “keys” and sharing insights on the latest elections. You’ll find him predicting that Trump and his MAGA supporters would triumph over Hillary Clinton and foreseeing America’s first Black president elected in 2008.

When reflecting on the public’s fascination with his predictions, Lichtman smiles and thoughtfully notes that he and his family find it “very bemusing.”

“I’ve been struck by the extent of their interest,” Lichtman said. “They’ll find out who won or lost soon enough; why the need for advance knowledge?”

But why are Americans so enchanted with not just Lichtman’s predictions but all election forecasts? He believes it stems from a culture of “instant gratification.”

“We live in an age of immediate results. That’s part of it,” he explained. “Moreover, we are a society steeped in predictions. It’s not restricted to politics—look at sports. Sports talk shows constantly provide predictions on upcoming games, coaching changes, trades, and more.”

“It’s the same with entertainment. There’s speculation about who will win an Oscar or when celebrity couples might split up,” he mused. “It’s all around us.”

Interestingly, Lichtman claims that the “scandal” key is his favorite among the 13, as it provides a more thrilling angle compared to merely analyzing economic statistics or electoral results.

Despite this, he mentioned that participating in numerous interviews during election cycles is not the most enjoyable aspect of his profession. Neither are the keynote speeches or accolades from the academic world.

“The most fulfilling part of recognition is receiving appreciation from everyday people: security personnel at AU, Uber drivers, or restaurant staff,” Lichtman shared.

He’s aware of the critics

Lichtman is accustomed to criticism. The feedback on his predictions often includes skepticism not only from media outlets but also from voters in the D.C. area. This year, he mentioned receiving accusations of being a “Democratic agent” or having financial ties to Harris.

This is nothing new for him.

Lichtman’s journey in prediction began in 1982 when he forecasted Ronald Reagan’s reelection. His model was created alongside Vladimir Keilis-Borok, a Russian seismologist focused on earthquakes.

The initial backlash he encountered came from other forecasters.

“I breached the cardinal rule of objectivity. Some of my keys extend beyond straightforward statistics like economic growth,” he elaborated. “But I maintained that it’s not subjective; it’s about making judgments. We are analyzing human behavior, and human beings are ultimately judgmental in nature.”

However, as his work gained traction, it also attracted criticism from political strategists, journalists, pollsters, and analysts outside academia. These critics have often argued that his keys rely more on subjective interpretations rather than on fixed indicators.

In response, Lichtman claims that his work clearly establishes specific criteria for each key. For instance, a favorable short-term economy does not merely reflect the perspective of the evaluator; instead, it assesses whether the economy is experiencing a recession during an election campaign.

The professor continues to address online criticism, but he reminds himself that over the years, critiques have even included remarks about the authenticity of his hair. “As if my hair has anything to do with my predictions,” he commented, pulling on his brown hair to demonstrate its genuineness.

“But I must say,” Lichtman added, “being criticized isn’t the worst outcome. The worst is being overlooked. And fortunately, I haven’t been overlooked for the last two decades.”

Lichtman Predicts a Win for Harris

Nearly every major national poll shows the race is too close to call, lying within the margin of error.

Yet, earlier this month, Lichtman indicated that his keys suggest a historic victory for Harris this fall. This is attributed to the fact that she faced minimal primary competition before securing the Democratic nomination, there’s no significant third-party candidate following Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s exit from the presidential race, and his economic criteria are presently favorable for her.

He also pointed out that Democrats have not experienced “prolonged social unrest.” Lichtman maintained that the pro-Palestinian protests related to Gaza do not meet his criteria for unrest, along with other considerations.

In 2000, Lichtman observed that eight out of the thirteen keys suggested positive prospects for Democrats, yet Al Gore ultimately lost the election to George W. Bush in a contentious aftermath that reached the Supreme Court.

Lichtman raised some eyebrows in June when he advised that Democrats should keep Biden, despite the president’s poor debate performance, which caused controversy and eventually led to the end of his campaign.

The professor elaborated that he was concerned Democrats might neglect two crucial keys as doubts about Biden’s reelection grew: the advantages of incumbency and the impact of primary contests. If Biden withdrew, Democrats would lose the immediate recognition and advantages gained from incumbency.

Conversely, since Harris didn’t navigate the usual primary route for the Democratic nomination and faced no contenders, the party managed to retain that aspect of Lichtman’s framework.

And just to clarify, the recent Harris-Trump debate and the second assassination attempt against the former president do not alter anything.

“None of these fleeting incidents, not the debate, not the alleged assassination attempt, and not JD Vance’s fabricated story about immigrants eating pets,” Lichtman commented. “All of these do not shift the fundamental dynamics of the election. Hence, they don’t affect my prediction.”

Political Forecasts and Senior Olympics?

But Lichtman doesn’t just focus on elections.

He has been a runner for 60 years, starting at age 16 and remaining active today. Recently, he enjoyed success at the Maryland Senior Olympics, earning both bronze and gold medals, qualifying for the national competition next year.

His wife, Karyn Strickler, is a triathlete, and they both have a long-standing passion for basketball. Lichtman shared that among friends, they would joke about their competitive nature, saying, “When Allan and Karyn face off, there’s blood on the floor.”

Nonetheless, they are a family deeply engaged in political affairs. Strickler is the founder and president of Vote Climate U.S. PAC, which aims to help elect candidates committed to eliminating all human-made greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, as stated on its website. Lichtman also hosts a regular live YouTube show discussing political topics with his son, Sam.

Lichtman shared that he, along with Americans nationwide, is drawn to political predictions for one key reason.

“It’s exciting. It’s fascinating. I’ve been doing this for 40 years. At 77, I still feel butterflies every four years, knowing I might be proven incorrect,” he said. “Certainly, I could be wrong. Anyone can be wrong.”

Contributors: Karissa Waddick, Elizabeth Beyer