Online shoppers are anticipated to spend a record amount during this holiday season, with a significant proportion of those purchases being made via mobile devices, according to a new holiday forecast.

Adobe’s online shopping predictions for the 2024 holiday season, covering from November 1 to December 31, estimate that U.S. online sales will reach a staggering $240.8 billion, reflecting an 8.4% growth compared to the previous year.

Mobile shopping is projected to outdo desktop or laptop purchases, hitting $128.1 billion, which marks a 12.8% rise. This implies that mobile transactions will make up 53.2% of all online holiday purchases, according to Adobe.

“This season will be dominated by mobile,” Vivek Pandya, the lead analyst for Adobe Digital Insights, told YSL News.

Black Friday and Cyber Monday remain key shopping days

As shoppers have already started their holiday purchases, the period often referred to as “Cyber Week,” or “Cyber Five,” which spans from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday, is expected to generate a large portion of online sales, according to Pandya.

During Cyber Week, “we anticipate a significant amount of growth to be front-loaded due to early shopping, but shoppers still consider this time to offer the best deals,” he stated.

A survey conducted with 5,000 U.S. consumers revealed that 71% plan to shop online on Black Friday, and 70% are actively looking for deals throughout Cyber Week.

Adobe expects online sales to total $40.6 billion during this five-day period, marking a 7.0% increase from last year. Cyber Monday is forecasted to continue being the top online shopping day of the season and year, with a projected $13.2 billion in sales, up 6.1%.

For Black Friday, sales are predicted to reach $10.8 billion, which is a 9.9% increase, while Thanksgiving Day is expected to bring in $6.1 billion, showing an 8.7% rise.

Overall, both Thanksgiving and Black Friday are forecasted to show more growth compared to Cyber Monday, as consumers capitalize on early promotions from retailers.

Retailers to compete for shoppers with discounts

Adobe anticipates that retailers will offer substantial discounts, potentially up to 30% off regular prices, as they vie for consumers’ spending during the holidays. This aligns with trends seen during the 2023 holiday shopping season, as mentioned in Adobe’s news release.

Analyzing 18 product categories, Adobe predicts that discounts on electronics could reach 30%, with toys, TVs, and clothing seeing reductions of 27%, 24%, and 23%, respectively.

“The online retail sector continues to provide significant value to consumers, offering them a reprieve from rising costs in other areas,” noted Pandya.

Other notable trends for this holiday season

Here are some key takeaways from Adobe’s extensive analysis, which included over 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail websites, covering 100 million product listings and 18 different categories.

• Consumers are upgrading their purchases. Despite opting for cheaper products due to inflation earlier in the year, shoppers are expected to shift back to higher-end goods this holiday season. The proportion of expensive purchases is predicted to rise by 19% compared to earlier trends.
• Social media influencers are directing consumer spending. While paid search has been the leading source of retail sales, contributing 27% of online revenue in the first nine months of the year, affiliates and social media partnerships are forecasted to account for 17.2% of online sales, with a growth rate of 7% to 10%. Notably, shoppers who engage with influencers are converting at a rate 10 times higher than average social media interactions. In a survey, 37% of Gen Z respondents admitted to making purchases influenced by an influencer’s suggestion.

• Buy now, pay later (BNPL) is becoming increasingly popular. The BNPL method is anticipated to set new records this holiday season, projecting $18.5 billion in online spending, an 11.4% increase from last year. November is forecasted to be the peak month for this payment option, while Cyber Monday is expected to see the highest single-day sales at $933 million. In Adobe’s survey, 39% of millennials expressed plans to utilize BNPL, with 38% of Gen Z shoppers indicating the same. The main reasons for resorting to this payment method include freeing up cash (22%) and enabling purchases that may not be affordable otherwise (19%).
• AI usage in online shopping is on the rise. According to Adobe’s findings, 40% of shoppers plan to utilize AI for their holiday shopping, and 20% will use generative AI to hunt for the best deals.

Betty Lin-Fisher is a consumer reporter for YSL News. You can  follow her on X, Facebook, or Instagram @blinfisher.