CEDAR KEY, Fla. – The innkeeper is pondering if rebuilding this small island town is worthwhile – again. The clam farmer is anxious about the effects on their shellfish and tourists. Meanwhile, the business leader is left wondering what the changing climate will bring next.

“Natural disasters happen, but they seem different now,” said innkeeper Ian Maki, who has endured five hurricanes since moving to this coastal area in 2018. “These don’t feel natural anymore.”

Thousands of residents in Florida’s Big Bend region share these concerns following Hurricane Helene. This sentiment resonates from coastal communities in Alaska to California and Maine, where increasingly powerful storms and rising sea levels disrupt lives and livelihoods. Several insurers have already reduced coverage or exited certain markets, reflecting their concerns about future risks.

While officials have yet to publish precise damage figures from Helene, CoreLogic, a financial services firm, initially estimated that commercial and residential damages in Florida and Georgia could reach between $3 billion and $5 billion. This figure is anticipated to rise significantly due to severe flood impacts in Tennessee and the Carolinas.

A 2022 YSL News report warned of an escalating climate crisis in the United States as natural disasters become more common. Historically, the U.S. averaged eight disasters causing over $1 billion in damages each year since 1980. However, in the past five years, that average has increased to 18 such disasters annually, according to federal statistics.

Researchers studying climate and weather patterns suggest that storms like Helene will become more frequent. Unlike traditional hurricanes that accumulate strength over time, Helene quickly escalated from a weak tropical disturbance to a formidable Category 4 hurricane within just a few days. The heat driving these storms finds a significant source in the exceptionally warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, which has been unusually warm for several years now.

“The intensity of storms at landfall, especially those that rapidly gain strength in the Gulf of Mexico, is likely linked to climate change,” explained Jim Kossin, an atmospheric scientist with First Street Foundation. “The unusually warm waters in the Gulf are significant contributors, and climate change plays a role in that.”

Hurricane Parties Are a Thing of the Past

For coastal towns like Cedar Key, Horseshoe Beach, Key West, and other isolated locations, the increasing speed of storms complicates evacuation efforts, potentially leading residents to stay home during a storm. In the past, many had “hurricane parties” to celebrate their survival through milder storms.

This was the situation for Bill and Debbie Dotson when they retired to Horseshoe Beach in spring 2021. They have now experienced five hurricanes, including Helene, which hit on Bill Dotson’s 67th birthday. Although horseshoe Beach is only 25 miles from Cedar Key, it takes a 70-mile drive along narrow roads to travel between the two.

The Dotsons’ house is elevated on 14-foot concrete pillars, but last year Hurricane Idalia claimed one set of stairs and damaged another. They had just repaired both for $15,000 when Helene wiped them out again. As they looked around their neighborhood, they noticed at least eight homes destroyed. Idalia took 41 houses, and Helene’s toll seems even heavier. The town has around 170 full-time residents.

While waiting for a contractor to rebuild the stairs to their otherwise unscathed house, the Dotsons plan to stay in a tent. Zoning regulations in Florida increasingly acknowledge storm risks, requiring most new constructions in danger zones to be elevated. However, just a few houses down from the Dotsons, a neighboring home’s concrete pillars were flattened like grass due to the storm.

“We were drawn here by the beauty and our love for fishing in retirement,” shared Debbie Dotson. “We knew about hurricanes, but you never expect it to be this bad. You just never expect it.”

Increased Migration to Storm-Prone Areas

Recently, real estate firm Redfin reported a net gain of 16,000 people moving to high-risk flood areas last year, primarily in Florida, attracted by the warm climate, lack of snow, excellent fishing, and beautiful beaches. Additionally, Florida has no state income tax.

Many counties in Florida permit residents to live in RVs, providing an affordable housing solution for the numerous retirees, though RVs are particularly at risk from hurricanes. Given the state’s vastness, the statistical chances of facing a damaging hurricane might seem low.

This was the reasoning Maki and his partner, Darrin Newell, considered before purchasing the Firefly Resort in Cedar Key. Maki had spent years working in public health in the Pacific Northwest, and they were ready for a new adventure in “Old Florida.”

Unlike many coastal towns in Florida, Cedar Key’s economy relies mainly on aquaculture – specifically, clam farming – rather than tourism. It was this genuine, small-town atmosphere that attracted Maki and Newell to Cedar Key. Maki analyzed past hurricane data and estimated that Cedar Key experiences a damaging hurricane approximately every seven years on average, providing ample time for recovery and rebuilding.

Helene caused flooding and damage to parts of their cottages, many of which were originally constructed in the local “cracker” style.

The buildings are constructed in a “stilt style” using local softwoods, raised on cinder block foundations. This design lets the wood adjust as it gets wet or dries out, and makes repairs straightforward when necessary.

However, hurricanes continue to wreak havoc on the interiors. Parts of this complex are only five feet above sea level, and Helene generated a storm surge that exceeded the previous highest recorded surge by over two feet.

“In the last year, I’ve purchased more appliances than in my entire lifetime,” Maki shared. “I have experienced a range of emotions, from wanting to abandon the island forever to fiercely committing to stay rooted here. I’m scared that nature and human actions are making choices for me, which may render the place I chose to live uninhabitable within my lifetime.”

While Maki shared his story at a community barbecue organized by a local church, the Cedar Key “Clambassador,” Michael Presley Bobbitt, joined the discussion. Bobbitt, a commercial clam farmer as well as an author and playwright, expressed his concern that Helene might have permanently changed his beloved island.

In the aftermath of similar calamities elsewhere, developers have swiftly acquired damaged properties or newly cleared lands from distressed owners, often converting unique town centers into generic, cookie-cutter environments. The locals of Cedar Key are very protective of their island’s distinctive character, which values locally owned businesses rather than chain stores.

But when everything local property owners owned is lost, what can they do?

“Every commercial building in town has been impacted. There are areas where a familiar home, one that has stood for around 160 years, is now absent,” Bobbitt noted. “In some instances, there’s not even debris left; it’s just an empty spot where a house stood.”

Even though the cleanup has commenced, the lasting effects of the storm are just beginning to impact this small community of 700, which relies on aquafarming and tourism.

Building resilience for the future

Doug Lindhout, at 71, considers himself fortunate: despite some water damage, his rowhouse on A Street is still standing. Less than 24 hours after Helene moved north, Lindhout and his wife began assessing the damage in their home and on the island, contemplating their next steps.

“It feels as if we’ve been kicked in the teeth and punched in the kidneys,” he remarked.

As the island’s Chamber of Commerce president, Lindhout is dedicated to Cedar Key. This involves seeking positive attention whenever possible – he mentioned that last year’s adverse coverage of Idalia led to an 18% drop in tourist interest – alongside efforts to bolster the island’s aquaculture and other local enterprises.

“Cedar Key must seriously consider ways to minimize future damage. While we can’t stop storms from arriving, we’ve learned valuable lessons since Idalia,” he said. “A community that is more resilient can withstand bigger hits.”

For Cedar Key, resilience could mean enhancing the shorelines to better absorb wave impacts, which would help safeguard clam populations. It might also involve a community initiative to relocate the grocery store, which sits in a flood-prone area of the island that frequently experiences flooding even in minor storms.

Prior to his retirement, Lindhout handled numerous computer models and has been closely examining estimates from the University of Florida that predict how future storms will inundate the island as ocean levels rise. NOAA studies also indicate an increase in sea level at Cedar Key, forecasting that the number of high-tide flooding days in the community will double within the next decade.

In the absence of an immediate Ice Age, Cedar Key needs to realistically assess what life will be like in the upcoming decades, he asserted.

“It’s going to be far wetter than it is today,” Lindhout commented on Friday, shortly after Helene passed.

Despite openly contemplating their future on the island, Maki stated that he and Newell are devoted to Cedar Key, regardless of the challenges posed by nature. However, maintaining that commitment gets increasingly tougher each time.

“I never imagined I would be discussing places in the U.S. facing such regular and worsening severe weather events with increasing frequency,” he shared. “This pattern leaves little to no opportunity for recovery.”