COLUMBUS, Ohio – When JD Vance joined the debate stage on Tuesday night in New York, he quickly took the opportunity to present himself to the American public.

Raised in a working-class family, Vance’s mother and grandmother, whom he affectionately calls Mamaw, relied on food aid and Social Security to get by. His education was funded by the G.I. Bill after serving in the Marines, including a tour in Iraq.

“I am here to appeal for your support as vice president, filled with immense gratitude for this nation and the American dream that allowed me to pursue my aspirations,” Vance expressed before tackling the moderator’s initial question regarding the unrest in the Middle East.

Throughout the 90-minute debate, Vance, 40, showcased a friendly demeanor as he engaged with Minnesota Governor Tim Walz in typical Midwestern fashion during the CBS News Vice Presidential Debate. This platform allowed the Ohio senator to tell his narrative and enhance his image among viewers, many of whom were aware of little more than his viral observations about “childless cat ladies.” After the debate, his approval rating jumped by 9 points according to a CBS News poll.

Following the event, “Vance 2028” started trending online.

While Republicans, including Vance, remain focused on the primary goal of returning former President Donald Trump to the White House in 2024, Vance’s debate performance alleviated any reservations about his qualifications for the vice presidency – or the presidency, if that need arises – despite early concerns regarding Trump’s potential regret over endorsing him.

This performance solidified his role as a prominent successor to the movement initiated by Trump—a position that becomes easier to attain if he holds the vice presidency in four years.

“In my view, he not only positioned himself as the frontrunner for 2028 but also represents a new generation for the Republican Party,” noted Mike Hartley, an Ohio GOP consultant not associated with the Trump-Vance campaign.

Hartley likened the debate to Barack Obama’s pivotal 2004 Democratic National Convention address that propelled his political ascent: “There are occasions when individuals rise to the challenge and display their capabilities. For JD, this debate was such an opportunity, and he excelled.”

Is He Becoming Mr. Nice Guy?

Many were surprised by Vance’s friendliness, a marked shift from his usual combative and controversial campaign style—previously characterized by his confrontational approach to interviews and his remark that Vice President Kamala Harris could “go to hell.” Elements of that aggressive side remained during the debate: he refrained from acknowledging that Trump lost the 2020 election and criticized moderators for clarifying the legal status of Haitian migrants in Springfield, Ohio.

“The rules stated you wouldn’t fact-check,” Vance stated.

Nevertheless, Vance predominantly portrayed a cordial Midwest attitude and made efforts to seem relatable. He referenced his three children multiple times, humorously hoping they were asleep, discussed his mother’s battle with medical debt, and highlighted his wife, Usha Vance, to underscore points about childcare.

He also personalized the topic of reproductive health by sharing the story of a woman he knows who sought an abortion due to an abusive relationship. Despite previously supporting federal restrictions during his 2022 Senate campaign, Vance has aimed to moderate his views on the topic.

“As a Republican who is committed to safeguarding innocent life in this nation and wants to protect those in vulnerable situations, my party needs to improve significantly in rebuilding the American people’s trust on this issue, where they currently have serious doubts about us,” he remarked.

People close to Vance believe the kindness and compassion he displayed were authentic to his character. However, it was also a strategic choice: a source close to Vance, speaking off the record about debate preparations, indicated that the senator and the Trump-Vance campaign aimed to avoid aggressive personal attacks against Walz.

The notable age gap between Vance, who is 40, and Walz, 60, influenced this approach, the source explained. Vance’s team believed that Walz likely wouldn’t be combative, so they wanted to meet him on an equally civil ground.

“We felt that if we aligned our demeanor with (Walz’s), it would work to our advantage,” the source added.

Republicans view Vance as a future leader

During the debate on Tuesday, thoughts of 2028 were not a priority for Vance, according to his campaign.

“Senator Vance’s main focus is solely on ensuring that President Donald J. Trump returns to the White House,” stated spokesperson William Martin. “With fewer than 35 days remaining until the election, nothing will distract us from this objective. If we do not succeed this November, the prospects for 2028 will be irrelevant because our country will be in dire straits.”

Vance’s potential candidacy for the presidency in 2028 hinges on several aspects, particularly the outcomes of the upcoming election.

The road to the 2028 Republican primaries seems tough, and Vance could have an advantage as the vice president. However, if Vice President Harris wins, the senator might face criticism, especially if he is blamed for Trump’s loss, although experts generally consider vice-presidential nominees to have less influence.

“If Trump loses, I suspect the Vance vice-presidential ticket won’t appear favorable in retrospect,” commented Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.

Analyst Hartley mentioned that Vance has established himself as a strong candidate for 2028, even if he does not reach the presidency next year. However, Vance’s personal goals could also play a role; as a young father of three, he might prefer to seek reelection to the Senate and postpone ambitions for higher office.

Former Ohio Congressman Tim Ryan, who ran against Vance in the 2022 Senate race but did not succeed, stated that Democrats would be eager to face “(perhaps) the least likable person in politics.”

“He is almost thrilled at the prospect of Trump losing, placing him in a favorable position to run himself,” Ryan wrote in a text message. “However, he is fully committed to Trump. If Trump loses, the party could move past Trumpism, leaving Vance with a burden to bear.”

As the debate approached on Tuesday, Representative Byron Donalds from Florida mentioned that Vance represents a new wave of leaders concerned with the nation’s future.

“JD, along with myself and many others, embodies the future — not just for the party, but for our country’s leadership as well,” Donalds declared. “As we witness this shift in politics, I believe he contributes an invaluable perspective.”