According to early statistics obtained by YSL News, migrant apprehensions at the U.S.-Mexico border fell by 75% in September compared to the same month last year, marking the lowest figures since the Trump administration.

Preliminary data reveals that the number of migrant encounters and apprehensions at points of entry dropped below 54,000 in September.

This drop suggests that U.S. Border Patrol may report about 1.5 million illegal crossings for fiscal year 2024, a reduction from over 2 million in fiscal year 2023, which runs from October 1 to September 30.

This annual decline would reflect the lowest numbers since fiscal 2020, when around 400,000 encounters and apprehensions were reported during the global COVID-19 pandemic. The last month when apprehensions and encounters fell below 50,000 was August 2020.

During the Obama presidency, migrant apprehensions fell below half a million per year for the first time in 2010, continuing under that threshold for the following eight years.

The numbers hit their lowest point around 310,000 in 2017, the first year of the Trump administration, before rising again. Under Trump’s leadership, illegal crossings increased in 2018 and surged to over 850,000 in 2019, as reported by U.S. Customs and Border Protection.

The current trend of decreased illegal migration began earlier this year and picked up pace in June, when the Biden administration enacted an executive order to limit asylum access at the U.S.-Mexico border. Concurrently, Mexico initiated stricter enforcement measures that have stopped many migrants from reaching the U.S. border.

Changes in U.S. and Mexican border enforcement frequently result in temporary reductions in illegal crossings as migrants assess how the new rules affect them, with smugglers also re-evaluating their strategies.

As the U.S. presidential election approaches, the number recorded in September may indicate a significant low point in illegal migration, according to Adam Isaacson, who serves as director for defense oversight at the Washington Office on Latin America.

“Eventually, migrants and smugglers will identify which policies—like the asylum ban—affect certain groups more severely and others hardly at all,” he commented, mentioning populations that are harder to deport.