CUMMING, Ga. – When Rebekah Peltz and Jordon Frechtman relocated from Los Angeles to Forsyth County in 2021, they were unaware of the area’s troubling past.
During that time, the COVID-19 pandemic was rampant, prompting the couple to seek a life closer to family in the East, away from the crowded West Coast.
The growing film industry in Greater Atlanta attracted these entertainment professionals, especially after Democratic victories in Georgia during the 2020 elections involving President Joe Biden and Senators Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock made the state more appealing.
“We thought, ‘What a great time to move to Georgia. Let’s do it!’” recalled Peltz, 28.
They settled in Cumming, a suburb about 50 minutes from downtown Atlanta, drawn by the affordable housing and a peaceful lifestyle.
Over the past ten years, many people from traditionally left-leaning states have flocked to the Greater Atlanta area, attracted by lower living costs and a more desirable lifestyle.
This influx has expanded from Democratic strongholds like Fulton and Dekalb County to previously Republican-oriented suburbs like Gwinnett and Cobb, reaching even further to the historically conservative area of Cumming.
These new residents have been instrumental in transforming Georgia into a swing state. Activists from the Democratic Party view this migration as a chance to reclaim Georgia’s Democratic background.
According to an analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data by YSL News, over 70,000 people relocated to Georgia in 2022 alone. This movement is characterized by a liberal leaning, with many coming from younger, college-educated, and diverse backgrounds.
Lauren Groh-Wargo, CEO of the voting rights organization Fair Fight Action and former campaign manager for Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams, emphasized that while these new demographics indicate a potential shift, they’re not guaranteed results for Democrats. Nonetheless, they signal a shift toward a more left-leaning landscape.
“When determining targets and budgets, these individuals can be crucial,” Groh-Wargo noted.
Stacey Abrams’ Influence
Joe Biden’s unexpected victory in Georgia during the 2020 election marked the first win for a Democratic presidential candidate in the state since 1992.
This was largely the result of years of dedicated efforts by Democratic activists working to register disenfranchised Black voters and mobilize other Democratic supporters who typically didn’t participate in elections.
In 2012, when Abrams and Groh-Wargo observed a significant disparity in the number of Democratic versus Republican voters in Georgia, they realized an opportunity existed to register the numerous unregistered Black voters and reach out to the many Democrats relocating from the Rust Belt.
They established the New Georgia Project two years later, successfully registering over 200,000 new voters in preparation for Abrams’ 2018 gubernatorial campaign and an impressive 800,000 ahead of the 2020 presidential election.
Simultaneously, Atlanta enjoyed a cultural renaissance. The city’s hip-hop scene, which began gaining prominence in the 1980s, exploded in the mid-2010s with a surge of new artists defining the genre, further validated by the 2016 launch of Donald Glover’s show “Atlanta.”
The term “y’allywood” emerged during a significant change in Georgia’s film industry. A tax incentive for film productions implemented by former Governor Sonny Perdue in 2008 ignited a surge in movie and television projects in the state. Popular series such as “Stranger Things” and “The Walking Dead” started filming in nearby suburbs, while Marvel Studios began its large-scale superhero films in studios located just south of Atlanta.
Amid this revival, the city also took steps to convert 33 miles of unused railroad tracks surrounding Atlanta into a bike trail known as the Beltline.
Starting in 2015, stylish apartments, upscale restaurants, and markets began appearing along the finished parts of the trail, bringing countless new residents to the area.
Don Lowell, at 54, has witnessed these changes firsthand. He grew up near what is now Krog Street Market, a repurposed industrial site now serving as a food hall, and has lived within a one-square-mile area since the 1990s.
Working as a retail manager at a boutique on the market’s outskirts, Lowell has seen his rent skyrocket as the district in central Fulton County has become increasingly crowded. Five years ago, he rented a two-bedroom bungalow from the 1920s for $900; now, he is paying $1,350 for a studio apartment, nearly forcing him out of the neighborhood.
Despite the challenges, Lowell finds some positives in the changes, as he enjoys his lunch at a picnic table under a metal awning outside the market.
A devoted Democrat, Lowell believes that the influx of primarily young individuals has helped bolster Democratic support in Fulton County and played a role in Biden’s 2020 election victory.
“No one saw that coming,” Lowell remarked while spearing pasta salad with his fork. “It was a close race, but nobody anticipated it to be that tight.”
Between 2005 and 2022, Fulton County’s population grew by about 15%. In the 2008 election, President Barack Obama won 67% of the vote in the county. In 2020, Biden surpassed that, winning with nearly 73%, totaling 381,144 votes. The trend was similar in other Democratic-leaning counties within Atlanta.
Dontaye Carter, an officer with the Fulton County Democratic Party, views the increased voter turnout as a product of continuous outreach efforts and the population boom in Atlanta over the past decade.
“If you think of an engine, adding new parts to a running engine just makes it go faster,” Carter explained. “That’s what we’re witnessing.”
Gwinnett’s Transformation
As residents like Lowell gradually find themselves priced out of Atlanta’s city center, growth has surged in the previously quiet suburban counties surrounding it, including Gwinnett, Cobb, Clayton, and Henry.
Today, Gwinnett and Cobb lead the way in Georgia as the counties attracting the most newcomers from other states. The population increase is visible in every corner.
New six-story apartment complexes are rising at intersections, with small newly planted trees yet to mature.
Recently remodeled downtown areas, like Duluth and Peachtree Corners, boast artificial grass and colorful Adirondack chairs.
The Hispanic population in the county has risen by 36% in the last decade, according to the Atlanta Regional Council. In addition, the Asian population has expanded by 60% from 2000 to 2019.
With the population growth, the percentage of votes cast for Democrats in these counties has also risen. Take Gwinnett as a prime example.
From 1980 to 2012, the county was solidly Republican, but that began to change. In the 2000 presidential election, former President George W. Bush won Gwinnett by over 30 points. However, by 2012, Republican candidate Mitt Romney’s victory margin had shrunk to just 9%.
Fast forward to just eight years later, and Biden won it by a margin of 18.2%.
Brenda Lopez, the chair of the Gwinnett County Democrats, credits part of this remarkable shift to the local party’s rigorous voter outreach efforts. Since the lead-up to the 2016 presidential election, they observed an increase in voters lacking a prior voting history in Georgia.
Typically, these individuals would have been categorized as inactive voters, people unlikely to show up at the polls, leading to less investment in reaching out to them.
However, the party recognized that most of them were new residents without any voting data because they hadn’t voted in Georgia before. They invested millions in targeted outreach initiatives, including mail campaigns, canvassing, and local events.
The excitement was immense.
Tangi Johnson, 28, recalls receiving frequent door-to-door visits in 2020 from individuals verifying if she was registered to vote. Johnson had moved from Ohio to Georgia in 2011 with her mom for a change of environment but only began to feel the political landscape intensely that year.
“It was a completely different experience,” she remembered.
Political Outlook
As for the entire state, predictions for the upcoming election are still quite close. Republican Donald Trump holds a narrow lead over Democrat Kamala Harris, just over 1 percentage point, based on the latest polls, though results fall within the margin of error.
Because polls are seldom conducted at the county level, it remains uncertain how fierce the competition will be in Atlanta’s growing suburbs, although voter engagement in this densely populated area might significantly influence the election results in Georgia.
Democratic strategists, however, are acutely aware of the growing fatigue among voters.
When discussing how the growing lack of engagement might influence the political landscape in battleground states, many echo Stacey Abrams’ mantra: “Demographics are not destiny.”
“We’re a battleground state,” said Groh-Wargo. “No one should feel at ease. This is a tough challenge. It’s going to require significant effort over time.”
Republicans are also aiming to connect with new residents, especially those from diverse backgrounds.
The Republican National Committee established a Hispanic Community Center in Gwinnett in 2022, as part of a substantial outreach program designed to attract support for the party. The center organized candidate forums and community events, including a World Cup viewing party, but it closed in early 2023 due to the conclusion of that fiscal year’s RNC budget.
Sammy Baker, chair of the Gwinnett County GOP, indicated that the local party is actively engaging diverse voter communities with door-knocking campaigns and regional events.
He believes that Republicans have promising prospects with Latino and Asian business owners, who may resonate with the party’s economic agenda.
“As they expand their presence by owning businesses and purchasing homes, I think you’re seeing a shift towards the Republican side,” he stated.
However, he noted that the real challenge lies in mobilizing these voters to participate in elections. Baker doubts that Republicans will completely regain Gwinnett County, but with improved outreach, he envisions a more balanced representation between Republicans and Democrats.
Conversely, Lopez envisions not just a Democratic Gwinnett County, but a Democratic Georgia by the time of the 2032 presidential election. This forecast hinges on ongoing efforts to reach out to emerging voter demographics.
“We haven’t fully tapped into the Democratic votes available in Gwinnett County, and we’re talking about far more than 12,000 votes. We’re looking at well over hundreds of thousands of votes,” she pointed out. “It all boils down to who approaches them first.”
Forsyth: The next frontier
If Georgia is viewed as a battleground swing state, Kannan Udayarajan, chair of the Forsyth County Democratic chapter, regards Forsyth, located north of Atlanta, as “the frontlines of that battleground.”
Historically, Forsyth was a sundown town, with no Black residents inhabiting its 247 square miles for much of the 20th century. In 1912, a white mob expelled approximately 1,100 Black residents after accusations were made against three Black men.
In 1987, when demonstrators marched in Forsyth to expose the deep-seated racism, they faced hostility and attacks from white supremacists, including Klan members. The violence moved Oprah Winfrey to cover the county in a special, which she labeled the “battlefield of the civil rights movement” for that decade.
Today, the divides are less pronounced as black and white and more centered around red and blue affiliations.
Forsyth, situated northeast of Gwinnett, was the fastest-growing county in Georgia and the 15th fastest nationwide in 2020, according to the Census Bureau.
A significant portion of its growth stems from an influx of South Asian residents. From 2010 to 2019, the county’s Asian population multiplied four times, making up 18% of Forsyth’s overall population, as reported by the Atlanta Regional Commission.
More population growth is anticipated shortly.
The county has recently greenlit an 84-acre development, which will feature 1,800 multi-family housing units and an 18,500-seat arena that the county hopes will become home to a national hockey team.
This project is reminiscent of The Battery, a development in Cobb County from 2017 that introduced a new stadium for the Atlanta Braves along with shopping spaces and thousands of residential units. It is recognized for driving population growth in Cobb, which has also leaned Democratic over the past election cycles.
Udayarajan believes Forsyth’s political evolution mirrors that of Cobb, Gwinnett, and other suburban areas nearby Atlanta. In 2012, Romney secured 80% of the vote in Forsyth, while Trump won only 66% in 2020.
According to Udayarajan, Biden would have struggled in Georgia without Forsyth. The county contributed over 16,000 new Democratic voters during that election, which is roughly 5,000 more than the margin by which Biden triumphed in the state.
Udayarajan isn’t alone in recognizing this potential. For the first time this year, a Democratic presidential candidate has launched a campaign office in Forsyth.
Is this a sign of the increasing enthusiasm among Democrats in the area? The local party had anticipated around 60 attendees for the office’s inaugural event, but over 300 individuals showed up, including Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, who was previously considered as a potential running mate for Vice President Kamala Harris.
Udayarajan expressed a clear awareness among the top leadership about the significant work required in Forsyth County.
Nikki Melendez has observed the increasing involvement and political dynamics from an outsider’s view. At 20 years old, Melendez relocated to Cumming in 2017 with her family. As a military child, she has lived in diverse places worldwide, including Germany, New Jersey, and a quiet town in Oklahoma.
Melendez described Forsyth as being in a phase of “transformation.”
In the lead-up to the 2020 election, she noted that on one part of her street, Biden-Harris signs were visible, while the other side displayed Trump signs and bumper stickers featuring conspiracy theories.
“Many residents who’ve been here for a long time feel a bit frustrated when the topic of lots of newcomers arises,” she stated.
“There’s significant development occurring,” Melendez remarked. “It’s Cumming. There’s simply no other way to say it.”
