Following another unpredictable weekend in college football, Matt Hayes shares his insights in the First-and-10 column, spotlighting pressing topics nationwide as Week 7 approaches.

1. USC Football: The Decline of Troy

We have reached a pivotal moment, a crossroads that leads to one crucial question.

Is Lincoln Riley the right coach for Southern California?

“That’s the frustrating part for our team currently,” Riley remarked after facing the harsh realities of the Big Ten. “We’re just two plays away from likely being 5-0.”

And maybe just a few plays away from the struggles seen under Clay Helton.

This is how the cycle begins, everyone. The path to unemployment is often laden with the cliché excuses: coulda, woulda, and shoulda.

We are not even halfway through October, and the Trojans are already facing a make-or-break moment this season. They need to defeat No. 5 Penn State this Saturday in a game that begs the question of who is the real contender (more on this later), or the unfolding disaster could seep into every corner of the program.

Consider this: What do Billy Napier (Florida), Sonny Dykes (TCU), Sam Pittman (Arkansas), Hugh Freeze (Auburn), and Riley share in common?

They have all dropped seven of their last 12 matches.

If you’re Lincoln Riley, aligning with this group of coaches is the last thing you want. For the first time in his rapid ascent as a head coach and offensive guru, he seems to lack solutions.

Michigan and Minnesota physically dominated USC in the latter parts of their games, revealing a persistent issue Riley’s squads at Oklahoma and USC have struggled to shake off: the perception of being a finesse team.

Weak at the lines of scrimmage, faltering when it matters most.

USC exited the field last weekend staggered and defeated by a mediocre Minnesota team that had just a single win in its last seven attempts against ranked opponents—a victory over Iowa in a game where defense’s scoring was the focus. We’re not talking about heavyweights like Ohio State or Oregon.

This was “Row The Boat” with players USC wouldn’t give a second glance for recruitment.

And there was Riley’s offense, the hallmark of his coaching legacy, only managing a measly 17 points against a Gophers defense that had previously allowed 31 points to a struggling Iowa team just two weeks ago.

If your offense struggles against Iowa – a team that last year executed more punts than offensive yards – there’s a clear disconnect somewhere.

2. Recruiting Challenges

Late in the final quarter against Minnesota, when USC failed to protect quarterback Miller Moss and the defense crumbled under the persistent Minnesota run game, the evident flaw in Riley’s tenure at USC came to light.

He is not effectively recruiting and nurturing talent along both lines of scrimmage.

Three recruiting classes into Riley’s era, and only two of the starting offensive linemen were recruited and developed organically. On the defensive front, all four starters are transfers from the portal.

You cannot thrive in the Big Ten with such a recruitment strategy.

Riley’s recruiting classes at USC ranked 70^th (2022), 8^th (2023), and 17^th (2024) according to the 247sports composite rankings, but what’s more alarming is the staff’s failure to scout the talent-rich state of California.

In 2022, 2023, and 2024, USC secured three of the top 20 players in California in 2022, four in 2023, and two in 2024—totaling just nine of the top 60 players (15 percent) for that period. Six remain on the team, and not one was an offensive or defensive lineman.

During those three years, California produced 13 ranked offensive and defensive linemen in the top 20, yet USC didn’t sign a single one.

USC has commitments from two of the top 20 California players for the 2025 recruiting class, and there are four offensive or defensive linemen among them. Two are committed to Oregon, one to Texas A&M, and one to Alabama.

Curious how USC ended up losing to Minnesota? There’s your explanation.

3. The Decline of Troy: The Epilogue

This Saturday, Penn State will visit the Coliseum, and it’s clear what’s at stake: a battle of wills.

Who will show more determination?

Penn State, which has triumphed in every regular season game against teams other than Michigan and Ohio State since 2021—or USC, which has faltered since reaching its peak under Riley in 2022.

Since USC’s defeat against Utah in the 2022 Pac-12 Championship Game, where a playoff spot was on the line, the Trojans’ record stands at 8-8 against power conference teams. Riley’s brief record exemplifies the dual nature of nurturing another Heisman Trophy winner (Caleb Williams) while simultaneously experiencing significant failure a year later.

With the transition to the Big Ten ahead, there’s the potential for three defeats in the first four games and an uncertain future looming. If USC can lose to Minnesota, they could very well drop games to middle-tier Big Ten teams like Rutgers, Washington, and Nebraska.
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Additionally, who’s experiencing a mediocre season?

That’s the situation with Riley at USC, a relationship worth over $100 million that is filled with missed opportunities.

4. Ashton Jeanty: Pursuing Barry Sanders’ Record

It’s time to bring this up: Ashton Jeanty sits just 1,598 yards away from breaking Barry Sanders’ single-season NCAA rushing record.

However, if you delve into the statistics, Jeanty’s current season is honestly more impressive than one of the highest benchmarks in sports history.

Sanders accumulated 2,628 yards from 344 carries in just 11 games (bowl game statistics weren’t counted back in 1988), boasting an average of 7.6 yards and 31.2 carries per game. In contrast, as Jeanty approaches Saturday’s match against Hawaii, he’s averaging 10.8 yards on 19 carries per game.

While Jeanty will have more games to play (at least 13, possibly more if Boise State secures a win in the Mountain West Conference), he hasn’t had as many opportunities. If Jeanty matched Sanders’ average of carries, he’d have racked up 1,782 yards after just five games.

Currently, Jeanty stands at 1,031 yards and must average 200 yards per game over the next eight games to break the record. Here’s where things get interesting: if Jeanty were to replicate Sanders’ average of 31.2 carries per game, he would reach the record a game earlier than Sanders.

5. The Weekly Five

Here are five recommendations for new Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer to turn things around.

1. The player wearing No. 2, who resembles Lynn Swann? Involve him more.

2. The former holder of your position? Advise him to ease off the bulletin board material.

3. Offensive lineman Kadyn Proctor is a beast. Run plays to the perimeter behind him.

4. Master the zone-read offense – before South Carolina QB LaNorris Sellers gets ahead of you in doing the same thing this week that Diego Pavia did last week.

5. As much as possible, dismiss all this absurdity.

6. NFL Scout’s View on Boston College DE Donovan Ezeiruak

An NFL scout shares insights on a potential draft prospect while requesting anonymity to maintain the integrity of the team’s draft prep.

“He chose to stay in school and has significantly elevated his performance. Now, he’s more explosive and displays better awareness. Last year, I observed him frequently, thinking he was on the verge of making plays but often didn’t for various reasons. This season, though, he’s much more impactful and difficult to block. His ability to create disruption has greatly improved, along with his technique and hand usage. These are the success stories you hope to see when players decide to stay one more season and benefit from solid NFL coaching from Bill O’Brien’s staff.”

7. Power Play: Ohio State Faces a Major Challenge

This week’s College Football Playoff power ranking, along with one significant takeaway.

1. Texas: The last time we witnessed QB Quinn Ewers in a high-stakes game, he was undoubtedly the best player in a victory against Michigan.

2. Ohio State: The defense has allowed just four touchdowns in five matches, now taking on a dynamic Oregon offense on the road.

3. Miami: When the Hurricanes fell behind against South Florida, Virginia Tech, and California, QB Cam Ward responded by scoring nine touchdowns (seven passing, two rushing).

4. Brigham Young: The Cougars should stand at 8-0 (with games against Arizona, Oklahoma State, and at Central Florida) ahead of their visit to Utah for the Holy War.

5. Georgia: It’s good to see that coach Kirby Smart has found a new target: the Georgia fanbase. Time to tighten up, everyone.

6. Alabama: Suddenly, the games at Tennessee (Oct. 19) and at LSU (Nov. 9) appear more intriguing and potentially perilous.

7. Oregon: If QB Dillon Gabriel starts the game against Ohio State slowly like he did against Michigan State, the Buckeyes could end up with a big win.

8. Penn State: The clash with USC justifies the hefty salary paid to offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki ($7.1 million for four years): find winning plays for crucial games.

9. Tennessee: The Volunteers play quite differently at home, and QB Nico Iamaleava will carry more confidence against their rival, Florida.

10. Ole Miss: Take a deep breath, everyone. Just a week after the shock of losing to Kentucky, everything seems to be back on track.

11. Iowa State: The Cyclones are 5-0 for the first time since 1980 and have a clear path to a potential 10-0 record.

12. Boise State: A victory by Oregon over Ohio State enhances Boise State’s standing following their narrow three-point loss to the Ducks.

13. Clemson: Following a dismal 34-3 defeat against Georgia, QB Cade Klubnik has thrown for 18 touchdowns (four rushing) with only one interception.

14. Notre Dame: QB Riley Leonard needs to improve his completion rate on straightforward, drive-sustaining passes.

15. Texas A&M: No team has demonstrated as much development throughout the first six weeks of the season.

16. Kansas State: The Wildcats have utilized two weeks to prepare for Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders and the Buffs’ unpredictable offensive line.

8. Mail Bonding: Those ACC Officiating Issues

Matt: I’m getting tired of ACC officials enabling the favorites just for the sake of the College Football Playoff financial rewards. When will this be addressed? – Vick Fisher, Atlanta.

Vick:

Are you referencing the (take your pick) non-targeting incident involving Miami against Cal, or the overlooked illegal men (multiple offensive linemen) downfield play on Miami’s game-winning touchdown, or the overturned Hail Mary call in Miami’s win over Virginia Tech that was blatantly not “indisputable” in any capacity, or the revival of SMU’s fumble which was clearly a fumble during a crucial scoring drive?

Well, I’m unclear about what exactly you’re referring to.

9. The Numbers Show Florida State’s Increasing Woes

70. Is this just a temporary setback for Florida State? Are they just a few (or 8-10, depending on how you interpret it) mistakes in the transfer portal away from the team that achieved 19 consecutive victories from 2022-23?

Currently, FSU appears headed toward a two-win season.

However, before jumping to conclusions regarding potential firings, it is essential to note: following last year’s close call with Alabama and the resulting contract extension (thanks to Jimmy Sexton), coach Mike Norvell remains secure with a near $70 million buyout. Plus, FSU’s ongoing legal disputes with the ACC has placed the university in a significant financial bind.

Alternatively, FSU might combine that $70 million with a prospective ACC buyout and see where that takes them in whatever conference might accept them later.

Here’s a hint: the Florida State Seminoles, supported by Blackstone.

10. Final Thoughts: Let’s Celebrate Diego

Let’s keep things respectful, everyone.

However, anyone who can defeat the formidable Alabama deserves to express themselves freely, especially considering it’s the first time it has happened since 1984.