Recent surveys in Pennsylvania indicate that voters are almost evenly split between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. However, betting markets are showing a different trend. If their predictions hold, Trump might have an advantage in Pennsylvania and the overall election results.
Since the vice presidential debate featuring JD Vance and Tim Walz, offshore betting markets have seen increased support for Trump, as reported by Polymarket, a cryptocurrency trading platform. This shift is largely due to a rise in bets that have elevated Trump’s chances of winning in Pennsylvania.
Additionally, Trump’s campaign gained more momentum over the weekend when he revisited Butler, Pennsylvania, the site of an assassination attempt against him in July. As of Wednesday at 7 a.m. ET, bettors on Polymarket rated Trump’s chances of winning the election at 53.1%, marking his best odds since early August. It’s important to note that betting on presidential elections is illegal in the U.S.
Changes in Trump’s chances of winning over the past two weeks
Trump’s likelihood of winning the presidency has improved alongside his prospects in Pennsylvania. In prior weeks, bettors on Polymarket favored Harris slightly in Pennsylvania, a key state with 19 electoral votes. If she were to win all states where she’s currently favored, Harris would exceed the 270 electoral votes necessary for victory, including Pennsylvania.
State-specific chances for Harris and Trump
With just four weeks until November 5, Trump’s chances in the 2024 election appear significantly stronger compared to his previous campaigns in 2016 and 2020. In 2016, he had only a 17% chance of defeating Hillary Clinton right before the polls opened, according to Betfair Exchange, the largest peer-to-peer betting platform in the U.K.
Public Awareness of Harris
Potential voters and betting markets have shown that they were far less familiar with Trump than they were with Clinton in 2016. This time, it seems the situation may be reversed, as suggested by Harry Crane, a statistics professor at Rutgers University, who analyzes electoral outcomes based on betting market predictions.
According to Crane, “Harris is a relatively unknown candidate. While she has been the vice president, she’s not been active in media appearances. Her recent interview on ’60 Minutes’ was the first of several she plans to undertake.”
He added, “She contrasts sharply with Trump, who is constantly in the spotlight. It’s hard to imagine any new information about Trump that could be shocking. Will this situation benefit Harris, or might it be detrimental?”
States Still Considered Toss-Ups
Real Clear Politics consistently monitors and compiles polling nationwide. Their findings indicate that over 100 electoral votes from nine states remain uncertain.
Bettors Raise Trump’s Chances Higher Than Prior Elections
While the recent betting trends for Trump and Harris have diverged significantly, they are still far from where Trump’s chances stood on the first day of the Republican National Convention. On July 16, Trump’s winning odds were over 70% on both Polymarket and Betfair Exchange.
Betting Odds Did Not Foreshadow Trump’s 2016 Victory
As of Wednesday at 7 a.m. ET, Trump had a 6.5 percentage point lead over Harris on Polymarket, while Betfair Exchange reported only a 3-point difference, which they deem too close to call. This margin is the narrowest between the candidates during Trump’s three campaigns, compared to the significant lead Biden had over Trump on October 9, 2020, when bettors gave him a 65% chance of winning.
Betfair had Clinton with an 81% probability of winning on the day of the 2016 election. Historically, the betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866, as reported by the Conversation, a nonprofit news organization. The only other occasion when bettors didn’t predict the winner was in 1948 when Democrat Harry Truman overcame 8-to-1 odds against Republican Thomas Dewey.
