MEXICO CITY – The number of migrants attempting to cross into the U.S. has sharply decreased. What is the U.S. government’s secret strategy for reducing illegal crossings?

Mexico.

According to experts, Mexico has maintained strict border enforcement due to a carefully arranged – albeit informal – agreement made last year with the Biden-Harris administration. This arrangement remains effective as it benefits Mexico economically to maintain order at the border and facilitate trade with the U.S. Furthermore, the political implications of the upcoming U.S. presidential election add urgency to Mexico’s situation.

Illegal crossings are a central theme in Republican Donald Trump’s campaign.

On the other hand, immigration is often viewed as a vulnerability for Democrat Kamala Harris. Relaxing enforcement measures could harm Harris’ political standing and strengthen Trump’s campaign, which capitalizes on American anxieties surrounding border issues.

Claudia Sheinbaum, Mexico’s new President, recognizes her country’s critical role in controlling migrant flows and its impact on the U.S. election, noted Arturo Sarukhán, the former Mexican ambassador to the United States.

“While it cannot be said that they have explicitly chosen to interfere or influence American voting, they are certainly conscious of the impact Mexico has regarding the U.S. election,” he stated. Sheinbaum “will likely aim to ensure that migrant influxes do not affect this issue as Americans head to the polls in under a month.”

According to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, encounters with migrants at the U.S. border have dropped from almost 250,000 in December of the previous year, during urgent talks, to fewer than 60,000 last month—the lowest figure in a single month since the Trump presidency.

In the first seven months of this year, Mexico’s immigration agency reported a 160% surge in migrant encounters based on federal statistics.

Refugees face barriers at the border

Mari Eduvid Sarmiento and Samuel Malave Sarmiento spent weeks navigating through Mexico’s southern regions while trying to reach the U.S. border with their 12-year-old child, always avoiding detection by Mexican immigration authorities. They were only able to reach the capital city.

The family’s experience resonates with the stories once shared by other migrants about sneaking into the United States. “Our passports meant nothing,” Eduvid Sarmiento remarked. “We kept trying without success.”

They took taxis for shorter trips and, at one point, walked for 13 hours through Chiapas to evade highways and “la migra,” a term previously associated only with the U.S. Border Patrol. They sold coffee by the roadside until they reached Veracruz, where they risked their lives climbing atop a cargo train—a choice that still terrifies Eduvid Sarmiento.

“It felt like we were staring death right in the eyes,” she expressed.

Just a decade ago, or even five years back, the Mexican government might have granted the Sarmiento family a seven-day travel visa, allowing many migrants to travel unhindered to the U.S. border by bus or plane. They would face some sporadic enforcement, usually triggered by frustrations from either the U.S. or Mexico wanting to curb the number of migrants.

However, their journey ended in Mexico City, where, in late September, they lived in a tent among many others facing similar challenges, trying to shield themselves from the rain.

If they had attempted this journey nine months prior, they would have encountered fewer challenges inside Mexico on their way to their desired destination—New York.

In December 2023, roughly 10,000 migrants were arriving daily at the U.S. border.

Details of the U.S.-Mexico agreement on migration

Four days before last Christmas, President Joe Biden reached out to his Mexican counterpart.

The unprecedented volume of migrants had created humanitarian crises in U.S. cities—ranging from El Paso, Texas, to Chicago, Denver, and New York. Many cities were overwhelmed by the influx, threatening to become a political liability for Democrats as the election approached. Meanwhile, a border security bill was being debated in Congress, but its chances of passing were slim.

The border with Mexico has seen escalating illegal crossings, reaching unprecedented levels, despite earlier commitments made by both nations. In 2022, Mexico pledged to invest $1.5 billion in infrastructure along its northern border over a span of two years. However, the number of illegal border crossings has continued to increase.

Following a presidential phone call six days prior to the holidays of Christmas and New Year’s, top officials from the U.S. government, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas, traveled to Mexico City.

According to Tony Payan, the director of the Center for the U.S. and Mexico at Rice University’s Baker Institute, the U.S. delegation likely presented a combination of incentives and pressures. “I’m sure what Blinken, Mayorkas, and Sherwood-Randall brought was a mix of carrots and sticks,” he commented.

One of the “sticks” included halting traffic at five key ports of entry between the U.S. and Mexico, notably affecting two major commercial railway crossings into Texas.

According to data from the U.S. Census Bureau, over 80% of Mexico’s exports are directed to the United States, equating to more than $475 billion each year. Any reduction in cross-border commercial exchanges directly impacts Mexico’s economy.

“The move to close the bridges to trade was a considerable show of force, especially when Mexico relies so heavily on trade,” Payan noted.

The U.S. officials brought “specific requests” for Mexico’s cooperation, as revealed by senior State Department officials who opted for anonymity while discussing the talks with YSL News. These requests included heightened migration enforcement on cargo trains and passenger buses, along with a demand that Mexico “decongest” its northern border with the U.S.

Continuing a tactic from the Trump administration, the Biden-Harris administration reassigned customs officers in December to assist Border Patrol in managing migrant processing. The closures of ports “got everybody’s attention,” a State Department official remarked.

In reaction, Mexico promptly took several measures, such as enforcing visa requirements for migrants from specific countries and complicating the asylum application process, a system that some migrants previously relied upon for a safer journey to the U.S. border.

Mexico also accelerated deportation flights back to Guatemala and Honduras and increased immigration enforcement along routes heading north via bus, plane, and train. This intensified effort has not ceased, and once apprehended, migrants are taken by Mexican immigration agents to the country’s southern region, restarting their difficult journey northward.

“People are being left on the streets,” said Gretchen Kuhner, who directs the Institute for Women in Migration in Mexico City.

She explained that Mexico has historically maintained this “carousel” system, which initially targeted Central Americans for swift deportation. Now, however, the same system is reportedly being used to disperse migrants, essentially exhausting them. This situation creates opportunities for exploitation, violence, and kidnapping.

The Migrant ‘Carousel’

Mari Eduvid Sarmiento finds herself in a difficult situation in Mexico City, unable to leave without an appointment arranged by U.S. Customs and Border Protection through the CBP One app, part of the “legal pathways” established by the Biden-Harris administration to encourage migrants to present themselves at designated ports of entry. Her family applied for this appointment back in August but has not received a response.

Earlier that week, a group of Venezuelan migrants attempted to climb aboard a cargo train heading north. Yampier Sanchez recorded a video of himself wearing a Los Angeles baseball cap, with the passing scenery behind him. However, Mexican immigration agents halted the train shortly after departure, detaining him and others and putting them on a bus heading to Villahermosa in southern Mexico’s Tabasco state.

In the same week, a video circulated online showing a raid by Mexican immigration officials on ten different apartments in a Mexico City neighborhood where migrants were staying. Reports indicated that at least 60 individuals were detained and also sent on a bus to Villahermosa.

The Sarmiento family had been making a living selling boxer shorts from a stand on a busy street in Mexico City’s historic area. They navigated through heavy traffic among others selling a variety of goods, while sex workers lingered by the roadside.

Despite the challenges, Sarmiento expressed relief at the relative safety of the city compared to their perilous journey through Mexico.

“Every day was filled with fear,” her husband, Malave Sarmiento, shared, recounting the psychological toll it took on them.

Their 12-year-old son sat on a plastic stool, having been out of school for months.

“We were so worried for him,” Sarmiento said.

‘Weaponizing’ Migration and Placing Individuals in Danger

Former ambassador Sarukhán stated that Mexico has “weaponized” migration, transforming a matter that necessitates “shared responsibility” into a form of political bargaining.

“I have never seen this level of influence held by Mexico in the current U.S.-Mexico relationship,” he remarked.

However, he noted that Mexico has compromised its own immigration law values, according to Sarukhán.

“We have abandoned our responsibilities under international agreements to properly address the challenges faced by migrants due to organized crime and unscrupulous authorities who exploit them,” he stated.

Andrew Selee, the head of the nonpartisan Migration Policy Institute, pointed out that written agreements between the U.S. and Mexico are uncommon outside of trade.

“It’s generally based on understandings,” he explained. “What Mexico chose to implement was a concept the U.S. hadn’t even considered: the carousel. This was a choice made by Mexico. There are discussions between the governments, but ultimately, each is responsible for its own decisions.”

Mexico’s immigration agency has not publicly commented on its strategies, and a spokesperson for Sheinbaum’s transition team declined to participate in an interview.

Without a formal agreement, it’s uncertain to what degree the U.S. supports Mexico’s methods.

According to officials at the State Department, the U.S. is not funding Mexico’s migration enforcement programs. In the fiscal year 2023, the United States allocated nearly $87 million in “humanitarian assistance for refugees, asylum seekers, and vulnerable migrants in Mexico,” as stated by a State Department spokesperson.

Migrant crisis managed – for the moment

During the first two years of the Biden administration, encounters with migrants reached record levels, exceeding 2 million each year in 2021 and 2022. This increase was partly fueled by a strong desire for employment following the global pandemic that had halted travel and harmed economies.

After cabinet secretaries hurried to Mexico City, the number of migrants encountered by Border Patrol agents along the U.S.-Mexico border was cut in half almost immediately.

Migrant encounters declined again following an executive order issued by the White House in June that limited access to asylum at the U.S. border, dropping below 60,000 in July, August, and September.

On September 30, the Biden-Harris administration reinforced its previous executive order with a final regulation limiting asylum access at the U.S. border.

It remains uncertain if Mexico, along with Sheinbaum’s newly inaugurated government, will sustain the enforcement measures. Recently, she appointed a new director for the National Migration Institute, following criminal charges against the current leader related to the deaths of 40 migrants in a detention center fire in 2023.

The State Department officials informed YSL News that there is an informal agreement that Sheinbaum will maintain Mexico’s enforcement policies.

“They recognize, for various political reasons,” Sarukhán, the former ambassador, stated, “that their actions in Mexico could influence the upcoming election in November.”