DURHAM, North Carolina – Nadeen Bir is firm in her stance: she won’t vote for Kamala Harris in 2024 unless the Democratic presidential candidate pledges to halt weapon shipments to Israel.

This 44-year-old Palestinian-American, who has been a loyal Democratic voter throughout her life, now resides in North Carolina. Her father fled Jaffa during the 1948 conflict that led to the formation of Israel, and her mother was displaced in the 1967 war. Bir has family in the West Bank, where she says they live under constant threat.

“I’m torn because I recognize the potential danger of splitting the vote and allowing (Donald) Trump to return as president,” she remarked about the former president and current Republican candidate.

“However, if Kamala loses, it won’t be on us,” she emphasized, explaining that she cannot ethically support someone who has not done enough to alleviate the suffering in Gaza.

Bir shared her thoughts with YSL News on a sunny day in September in Durham, where about a dozen members of the group Mothers for Ceasefire gathered at a busy intersection during rush hour. Two toddlers in a stroller munched on Goldfish crackers while their legs swung back and forth as adults waved signs advocating for Palestine. Many passing cars honked in support, while one woman jogged by and shouted, “Get a life!”

Another member of Mothers for Ceasefire, Kelly Harris Perin, expressed her disappointment in Harris, suggesting that the vice president has not done more than President Joe Biden to resolve the ongoing conflict.

“But I’m not just a single-issue voter,” Perin stated, noting that healthcare, reproductive rights, education, and gender-affirming care are also vital issues for her.

“We can’t risk another Trump presidency,” she said, indicating her intention to support Harris while continuing to advocate for peace in Gaza. “I hope I can pursue both priorities without conflict.”

Bir and Perin belong to a segment of voters in critical swing states who registered as “uncommitted” in the Democratic presidential primary last March, expressing their frustration over the incumbent’s handling of the Israel-Hamas situation. Many of these voters are now evaluating how—or if—they will participate in the presidential election.

In North Carolina, over 88,000 individuals opted for an uncommitted vote in the primary. In the previous election, Trump outperformed Biden by fewer than 75,000 votes in that state. Analysts suggest this election may be even more competitive.

In Michigan, home to the largest percentage of Arab Americans in the nation, more than 101,000 voters also marked uncommitted in the Democratic primary. Biden secured a victory over Trump by about 154,000 votes there in 2020.

Capturing at least one of these states could prove essential for Harris or Trump to carve a path to victory.

The recent conflict in the Middle East escalated just over a year ago when Hamas attacked Israel, resulting in the death of more than 1,200 individuals and approximately 250 hostages taken into Gaza, as reported by Israeli authorities. In retaliation, Israel launched air and ground assaults that have reportedly killed over 41,500 people in Gaza, according to the Gaza Health Ministry controlled by Hamas, many of whom are women and children.

Israel has also initiated airstrikes and ground operations in southern Lebanon against Hezbollah, which has been firing missiles into Israel in support of Hamas since last year. Recently, Biden announced the deployment of 100 U.S. troops to Israel to assist with an advanced anti-missile system.

This war has intensified divisions within the Democratic Party and triggered numerous protests on college campuses as the presidential election approaches, now featuring Harris in place of Biden, and resulting in a statistical tie between candidates. A small portion of the electorate in essential battleground states is expected to influence the outcome.

After Biden withdrew from the race in July, some voters dissatisfied with his stance on Israel expressed a newfound openness to Harris, believing she adopted a different approach to the issue, even though her policies have largely mirrored those of Biden.

However, as November approaches, many are weighing whether Harris has made sufficient efforts to differentiate her position from that of her predecessor. Pro-Palestinian advocates and voter mobilizers insist that their backing—or lack thereof—could still sway the election.

“The situation feels quite complicated, and it remains to be seen how it will unfold,”

“It’s a complex situation,” remarked former Rep. Andy Levin, D-Mich., a proponent of the uncommitted voter movement in Michigan who is now encouraging support for Harris. This complexity is heightened by the war’s spread into Lebanon, where Michigan hosts a significant Lebanese American population.

“This makes things difficult,” he stated. “We’re navigating a storm. We need to find a clear path.”

For nearly a year, the Iran-supported militant group Hezbollah has escalated its rocket attacks on northern Israel. The situation has become tenser since Hamas’s assault on Israel on October 7.

U.S. officials worry that escalating tensions between Hezbollah, recognized by the U.S. as a terrorist organization, and Israel might trigger a wider regional conflict in the Middle East, prompting efforts to negotiate a cease-fire.

Changes at the Top of the Democratic Ticket

Since the October 7 attack, President Biden has generally supported Israel publicly, despite significant pressure from the more progressive members of his party, a stance influenced by his long-standing relationship with the country.

He has pressed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to minimize civilian harm, indicated he isn’t doing enough to secure the release of Israeli hostages, and used strong language during private discussions with Netanyahu. In May, he temporarily halted the delivery of 3,500 bombs to Israel.

However, the devastation in Gaza and the Biden administration’s association with it have drawn criticism from younger, progressive, Arab, and Muslim voters, who have been vital to the Democratic base in recent elections. The “uncommitted” campaign was introduced to demonstrate their electoral influence in the primary to encourage a policy shift, though it had limited impact.

Some of these voters were contemplating abstaining from the general election entirely, according to Our Revolution Executive Director Joseph Geervarghese, a political action committee aimed at motivating progressive supporters to vote uncommitted.

However, when Biden exited the presidential race and endorsed Harris, the situation seemed to change, Geervarghese noted, whose organization was established by Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., to promote progressive causes after his unsuccessful 2016 campaign.

Biden was distinctly pro-Israel, he explained, adding, “I believe Harris indicates a more balanced perspective on this issue.”

Harris has consistently expressed her support for Israel’s right to defend itself, and her campaign rejected attempts from protesters outside Chicago’s United Center to allow a Palestinian American to speak at the Democratic National Convention.

Throughout her presidential campaign, Harris has garnered support from a wide array of foreign policy experts, including defense advocates like former Vice President Dick Cheney and his daughter, former GOP Rep. Liz Cheney from Wyoming, alongside Sanders, who has openly criticized the Biden administration’s approach to the conflict in Gaza but is endorsing and campaigning for Harris.

Similar to Bir, leaders in the uncommitted movement have urged Harris to pledge to halt arms shipments to Israel. Nonetheless, the campaign has indicated she will not entertain an arms embargo. “I will always ensure Israel can defend itself,” she asserted during the September debate with Trump.

While Harris has called for a cease-fire earlier this year, supported a two-state solution, and acknowledged the Palestinian right to “dignity, security, freedom, and self-determination,” she shares these views with Biden as well.

“Within our base, there appears to be more openness due to this signaling, particularly since she is not Biden,” Geervarghese observed. “However, there isn’t enough assurance that she will genuinely pursue peace.”

Due to this, he noted, “There’s a significant chance” that uncommitted voters could influence the election in crucial states like Michigan.

James Zogby, the founder of the Arab American Institute and a longstanding member of the Democratic National Committee, was one of the first national Democratic figures to propose a plan to succeed Biden following his poor debate performance in late June.

He is optimistic that Harris will approach the conflict differently than Biden, not only based on her public comments but also because her campaign is dedicating resources to engage with Arab and Muslim communities in ways that the Biden administration did not.

“The Biden administration has been the most frustrating Democratic administration I’ve ever dealt with,” Zogby remarked. “I cannot comprehend their behavior, not just in this matter, but overall.”

A Chance for Both Trump and Harris

The Arab American community has largely favored Democrats for many years, according to the Arab American Institute.

However, the Biden administration’s handling of the Gaza conflict has eroded some of that support and even pushed certain voters toward Trump, as revealed by a recent survey of 500 individuals conducted by the group. The poll disclosed that Arab American voters.

The opinions among voters are fairly balanced between the two presidential candidates and their parties, with almost 20% identifying as independent.

“In our three decades of surveying Arab American voters, we haven’t seen anything comparable to the impact the Gaza conflict is having on voting patterns,” the analysts noted in their review of the data.

This is certainly not overlooked by the Harris campaign. Earlier this month, Harris met with Muslim and Arab American leaders in Michigan to share her “concern regarding the immense suffering in Gaza,” as mentioned by the campaign. Just days prior, her national security advisor also engaged with Arab, Muslim, and Palestinian leaders, while Democratic vice presidential candidate Tim Walz conveyed to Muslim advocates that the war in Gaza “must come to an end.”

Harris “is committed to working towards a resolution in Gaza that ensures Israel’s safety, the release of hostages, the alleviation of suffering in Gaza, and the recognition of the Palestinian people’s rights to dignity, security, freedom, and self-determination,” stated Nasrina Bargzie, the Harris campaign’s director for outreach to Muslim and Arab Americans.

The Trump campaign is also exploring opportunities to appeal to Muslim and Arab American voters by promoting peace in the Middle East, despite past actions that continue to concern some. They have engaged community leaders and gained the support of the mayor of Hamtramck, Michigan, the first Muslim-majority city in the United States. A recent Wall Street Journal survey indicated that voters in swing states favored Trump over Harris by 15 percentage points regarding the Israel-Hamas war.

In a statement to YSL News, Brian Hughes, a senior advisor for the Trump campaign, accused Biden and Harris of having “brought death, chaos, and war” to the Middle East. “Only President Trump can restore peace and stability in the region for everyone and will safeguard religious freedoms for all Americans,” he asserted.

As president, Trump backed Netanyahu’s administration. While campaigning, he has positioned himself as Israel’s “protector” and underscored that Jewish Americans who support Democrats may be partly responsible if he loses. His son-in-law and former advisor, Jared Kushner, suggested that Gaza’s “waterfront property” could be of “great value” and that Israel should “relocate the people and then clean it up.”

Numerous groups that actively support Palestinian advocacy have recently backed Harris, claiming that a Trump presidency would be a greater threat to their goals, including Emgage Action, the largest Muslim American voter advocacy organization in the nation.

“If we are genuinely aiming to promote our anti-war objectives and encourage peace in the Middle East, including backing Palestinian self-determination, we believe there’s no feasible path to achieving that under a Trump presidency,” Emgage Action CEO Wa’el Alzayat expressed to YSL News.

Last month, the Uncommitted National Movement issued a statement indicating that it could not endorse Harris but opposed a Trump presidency, advising against voting third-party as that could lead to a Trump victory. Movement representatives declined to comment when approached multiple times for this article.

Zogby from the Arab American Institute and Alzayat from Emgage are both engaged in efforts to demonstrate to Arab and Muslim voters that supporting Harris is a strategic and moral choice, considering the potential repercussions of another Trump administration.

“I have been advising people that while it’s valid to be angry, we cannot afford the luxury of simply being angry,” Zogby remarked. “For certain groups to suggest we must teach the Democrats a lesson – that’s irresponsible. It’s childish and potentially hazardous.”

Assessing the Prospects

It is challenging to pinpoint exactly how many voters are still undecided in the 2024 presidential race. A YSL News/Suffolk poll conducted in early September indicated that about 7.5% of participants were undecided or considering third-party options for the presidential election.

Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent candidate Cornel West are both campaigning on pro-Palestinian platforms and are garnering approximately 1% and 2% of the voter support, respectively, according to the poll.

Among those withholding their votes from Harris, 21% disagreed with her stance, and 11% mentioned the ongoing conflict in Gaza as a concern. Twenty-nine percent indicated they required more information, suggesting potential opportunities for the vice president.

Alzayat reported that his organization only has reliable data from before Harris secured the Democratic nomination. Back then in mid-summer, around 30% of those surveyed were contemplating not voting or selecting a third party due to the Biden administration’s response to the crisis.

Currently, “many individuals are leaning toward voting for Harris because they comprehensively understand their options and the rationale behind their decisions,” he indicated, based on the group’s unofficial internal polling. “However, they are hesitant to voice it publicly due to the current circumstances.”

Richard Czuba, the leader of Glengariff Group, a polling organization based in Michigan, shared insights from a recent poll he conducted among 600 voters in the state between October 1 and 4. The findings suggest that very few voters are likely to avoid voting for Harris due to the Gaza situation; only about 3% indicated they might support third-party or independent candidates such as Stein or West. Nearly 5% expressed intention to back Robert F. Kennedy Jr., even though he has withdrawn from the 2024 race and endorsed Trump while remaining on Michigan’s ballot.

In another poll of 600 voters in North Carolina reported by the Wall Street Journal, about 10% of participants said they were likely to vote for Kennedy, while 2% favored West, 1% preferred Stein, and another 9% were undecided.

Czuba acknowledged that quantifying the influence of Muslim and Arab American voters on the election is challenging. However, he noted that another essential segment of the Democratic base—young voters—has shown a strong preference for Harris in Michigan.

Regarding the potential impact of the Gaza conflict on Harris’s electoral chances in Michigan, Czuba stated, “we’re not seeing it in the numbers.”

Levin, a former Democratic congressman from Michigan, expressed his concern that the war in Gaza could play a pivotal role in determining the next president, urging efforts to mobilize Palestinian, Lebanese, Arab, and Muslim voters for Harris up until the closing of polls on November 5th.

“After that, on November 6th, we can all return to advocating for peace and change,” he stated.

As the election nears, Bir from Durham has firmly maintained her stance. She believes Harris has missed opportunities to win over undecided voters and suggests that supporting an arms embargo against Israel could improve her chances. Previous surveys conducted by pro-Palestinian organizations like the Institute for Middle Eastern Understanding Policy Project, the Center for Economic and Policy Research, and the Arab American Institute may indicate this approach.

Additional polling shows a divided American public. For instance, an Associated Press-NORC poll indicated an equal number of Americans think the U.S. contributes “too much” versus “the right amount” in aiding Israel. Meanwhile, a poll by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs revealed that 60% of Americans believe the U.S. should maintain military support until the release of Israeli hostages.

Bir draws parallels between contemporary pro-Palestinian activism and the opposition faced by anti-Vietnam War activists in the 1960s and ’70s. She argues, “There’s a history of resistance that is often regarded negatively, even though it holds significant importance.”

Despite this, Bir understands that many face tough decisions. Her own husband plans to vote for Harris, and her organization, Mothers for Ceasefire, intends to remain neutral in the election process. She commented, “Everyone will make their own choices, and we support that.”

She wishes there were a genuine third option and is fatigued by consecutive elections offering what she considers two undesirable candidates. In the meantime, she vows to continue advocating for change from the streets of Durham.