11 College Football Teams Remain Undefeated: When Will They Face Their First Loss?
As the college football regular season hits the halfway mark, only 11 teams in the Bowl Subdivision remain undefeated, down from 22 at the start of October. The numbers are shrinking each week; just last Saturday, Ohio State suffered its first defeat in a thrilling Big Ten matchup against Oregon.
A noteworthy fact is that only two of these unbeaten teams will clashing later this season — Army and Navy, who will face off in their traditional rivalry game scheduled for the Saturday following the final College Football Playoff rankings.
This situation might lead to several unbeaten teams, particularly from the Power Four, heading into the conference championship weekend. Due to recent conference expansions, there could be unbeaten teams battling it out in early December to claim titles in the ACC, Big 12, and Big Ten.
However, history suggests this is unlikely. Last postseason, only Michigan, Washington, and Florida State maintained their perfect records, while in 2022, only Michigan and Georgia were unbeaten.
Expect the list of undefeated teams to shrink to its usual numbers in the upcoming weeks. Here’s a projection of when each unbeaten team might taste defeat:
No. 1 Texas (6-0)
Projected first loss: At some point during the playoffs (if at all).
Texas, the sole unbeaten team in the SEC, has consistently shown dominance, securing the top spot in the US LBM Coaches Poll. Recently, they convincingly defeated Oklahoma 34-3, even with Quinn Ewers struggling after missing two games due to injury. Their hardest challenge will be the upcoming game against Georgia, a team still reeling from a previous loss to Alabama. Texas is favored in this matchup, and justifiably so.
No. 2 Oregon (6-0)
Projected first loss: In the Big Ten championship game against Ohio State, Dec. 7.
Although it may be premature to assume both teams will clash again, especially with Ohio State needing to overcome Penn State on the road next month, last Saturday’s thrilling encounter allows for high expectations of a rematch in Indianapolis with a playoff bye at stake. Odds favor Ohio State making the most of this anticipated second chance.
No. 3 Penn State (6-0)
Projected first loss: Against Ohio State, Nov. 2.
While the Nittany Lions have a chance to defeat the Buckeyes, optimism comes from their improving offense under new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki. Nonetheless, it’s tough to overlook the fact that Penn State has lost seven consecutive times to Ohio State, with three defeats at home, even if many were by narrow margins.
No. 6 Miami (6-0)
Projected first loss: At Georgia Tech, Nov. 9.
After some narrow victories against Virginia Tech and California, doubts have arisen regarding Miami’s capacity to remain unbeaten in what appears to be a manageable ACC schedule. However, these close victories demonstrate progress, as the Hurricanes likely would have lost such games in coach Mario Cristobal’s earlier seasons. A safe bet is for Miami to handle Louisville, Duke, and Florida State at home before facing a tough road game against Georgia Tech; the Yellow Jackets have won three of their last five matchups against them.
No. 12 Iowa State (6-0)
Projected first loss: Against Texas Tech, Nov. 2.
The schedule could allow Iowa State to continue their undefeated run up to the final game against Kansas State in late November. Their consistent progress and potential make this a viable option, especially with them not facing BYU, Arizona State, or Colorado this season. The second half of their schedule, however, includes Central Florida, Texas Tech, Kansas, Cincinnati, Utah, and the crucial game against K-State. While there’s a chance they could start 11-0, I’m predicting the Cyclones will suffer a loss at home to a Texas Tech team currently on a winning streak.
No. 13 Brigham Young (6-0)
Projected first loss: Against Oklahoma State, Saturday.
BYU has been somewhat overlooked despite notable victories against SMU and Kansas State. However, their unbeaten run may end on Saturday. Although Oklahoma State has struggled recently with three consecutive losses, their return after a bye week could spark a turnaround for coach Mike Gundy and the Cowboys.
No. 18 Indiana (6-0)
Projected first loss: Against Nebraska, Saturday.
Under new head coach Curt Cignetti, Indiana has emerged as a remarkable success story in the Power Four. However, Nebraska offers a different challenge with their strong defense, which has only experienced a brief lapse during their loss to Illinois but is still ranked sixth nationally for yards allowed per play.
No. 20 Pittsburgh (6-0)
Projected first loss: Against Syracuse, Saturday.
Pittsburgh has probably been fortunate not to lose at least twice thus far. While their defensive efforts have been commendable, they are likely to face challenges against Syracuse.
Unbeaten Teams Midseason Showdown
A team that only achieved three victories last year has remarkably managed to stay undefeated at the midpoint of the season. Kyle McCord and the Orange pose a significant challenge for a defense that allows an average of 101st in the nation for passing yards permitted per game. Conversely, Pittsburgh ranks somewhat better at 62nd for yards allowed per attempt. Syracuse stands out as the second-best team in the FBS for passing yards per game, leading the league with an impressive 47.8 passes per game.
No. 24 Army (6-0)
First loss: at North Texas, Nov. 9.
It’s difficult to accurately assess Army since they haven’t faced any notable opponents yet. However, the way the Black Knights have overpowered teams like Rice, Temple, and Alabama-Birmingham is commendable. This trend is expected to persist against weaker rivals such as East Carolina and Air Force, but North Texas’s high-octane offense will likely prove too challenging for them.
Liberty (5-0)
First loss: vs. Jacksonville State, Oct. 30.
Liberty’s flawless record could last until a home matchup with Western Kentucky on Nov. 23 and perhaps even into the postseason. Yet, they might face tough competition from Jacksonville State, which has bounced back with three consecutive victories, two of which were in Conference USA. These wins came with a staggering combined score of 161-44, with the Gamecocks amassing 991 rushing yards and an impressive 18 rushing touchdowns.
Navy (5-0)
First loss: vs. Notre Dame (in East Rutherford, N.J.), Oct. 26.
In contrast to Army, Navy has gained national respect due to their win against Memphis on September 21. They are expected to maintain their strong performance with a victory against Charlotte this Saturday. However, upending Notre Dame the following week at a neutral site will require an extraordinary effort on their part.
