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HomeSportEvaluating Underdogs in the College Football Playoff Race: From Indiana to Illinois

Evaluating Underdogs in the College Football Playoff Race: From Indiana to Illinois

 

Assessing College Football Playoff dark horses  from Indiana to Illinois


 

Coach “Google Me” saw a surge in search inquiries Saturday afternoon.

 

Indiana’s impressive 56-7 victory over Nebraska caught the attention of college football fans, prompting many to look into Curt Cignetti, the confident first-year head coach of the Hoosiers who has a track record to support his bravado.

“There was a general belief that Nebraska had a solid defense,” Cignetti mentioned after the dominant win. “So, people are starting to take notice, right?”

Count me as one of those paying attention.

The Hoosiers are among seven undefeated teams in the Power Four conferences, and while many are surprised by their 7-0 record, Cignetti anticipated this, boldly proclaiming upon his hiring: “It’s simple: I win. Google me.”

Now, halfway through Cignetti’s inaugural season in Bloomington, the possibility of the Hoosiers making the College Football Playoff is creating some buzz online.

 

Indiana’s playoff chances are legitimate for three main reasons:

1. Favorable schedule. The Hoosiers will not face other undefeated teams in the Big Ten, such as Oregon and Penn State, during the regular season. They only have one ranked opponent, Ohio State, ahead. This gives Indiana a strong shot at finishing with an 11-1 record, which might attract the attention of the College Football Playoff committee, provided they don’t suffer a heavy defeat against the Buckeyes.

 

2. The Hoosiers are not just winning; they are dominating their opponents. While their victory over Nebraska, currently ranked No. 25, stands out as their best win, their average margin of victory of 35 points is also noteworthy and shouldn’t be overlooked by the selection committee.

 

3. Indiana doesn’t showcase any significant weaknesses, and veteran quarterback Kurtis Rourke is a key asset.

Cignetti has debunked the idea that turning around a program takes years. In this fast-paced era, he revitalized the roster with 31 transfers, which ranks third nationally. Rourke, who transferred from Ohio, was a notable addition but may miss next week’s game due to a hand injury.

 

Among those transfers are several talented players from James Madison’s squad that finished last season with an 11-2 record.

If you haven’t done so yet, give Cignetti a Google search. You’ll find he has never had a losing record in his 14 coaching seasons across Division II, FCS, and FBS. He has led three different programs to playoffs in their respective divisions, boasting a career winning percentage of .783. He isn’t satisfied with Indiana being merely a fleeting October narrative before basketball season kicks in.

“I’ll make sure the players and coaches remain focused,” Cignetti emphasized. “I went all out in the fourth quarter of this game, completely focused.”

In this situation, being all in is definitely a positive trait. I’ll verify it online, just to be sure.

What’s happening with Indiana and other playoff darkhorses? Let’s take a closer look:

Analyzing College Football Playoff sleeper teams

Indiana (7-0): Indiana’s schedule might be detrimental if the playoff bubble gets crowded. They did not face a Power Four nonconference opponent, and games against Western Illinois, Charlotte, and Florida International lower their strength of schedule. However, considering their balanced offense and defense along with multiple decisive victories, Indiana is a Strong contender.

 

Southern Methodist (6-1): The Mustangs suffered a narrow loss to Brigham Young, but it doesn’t heavily impact their standing given BYU’s undefeated status and potential to win the Big 12. SMU is favored in its upcoming games, positioning themselves for a chance at the ACC championship game. Strong contender.

 

Pittsburgh (6-0): Similar to Indiana, Pitt’s weak strength of schedule may put them at risk of being overlooked. However, unlike Indiana, the Panthers have managed to win close games, with three victories by four points or fewer. While their resilience is commendable, they are likely to struggle as the schedule toughens up with games against SMU and Clemson. Longshot contender.

Army (7-0): Army’s unique option offense is impressive. To maintain playoff aspirations, they need to defeat Notre Dame, win all remaining games, and hope for a two-loss team to emerge from the Mountain West. An interesting note is that the Army-Navy game on December 14 won’t count toward the playoff selection process, which may complicate things for the committee in determining playoff inclusions.Longshot contender.

Navy (6-0): Solid fundamentals, retention of players, and development are evident in both Army and Navy. Everything mentioned for Army also applies here. The Midshipmen must conquer Notre Dame, remain unbeaten, and also wish for a two-loss Mountain West champion. Longshot contender.

 

Illinois (6-1): Bret Bielema’s Returning to the Big Ten has been “borderline exciting,” as he describes it. The strategy that Bielema successfully implemented at Wisconsin is also working for him at Illinois. The Illini, along with Indiana, are basketball-focused schools hoping for a playoff chance. However, Illinois faces a more challenging schedule than Indiana and is a 21½-point underdog on Saturday against Oregon. A loss would effectively eliminate Illinois from contention, making them the ultimate underdog.

Fight for the Bottom

Alabama fans who are ready to send Kalen DeBoer back to Washington can take comfort in this: at least the Tide didn’t recruit Mike Norvell. And hey, at least you’re not Auburn.

 

With five games left, Norvell’s Florida State Seminoles (1-6) have already secured the title for the biggest disappointment. Following a 13-1 season, the ‘Noles have plummeted from the penthouse to the outhouse.

Next door, Southern California (3-4) is facing its own issues. While losing to Penn State isn’t catastrophic, losses to Michigan, Maryland, and Minnesota compound their troubles. M-M-Mercy.

 

Lincoln Riley wanted to avoid the SEC when he left Oklahoma for USC, but he’s discovering that the Big Ten is no walk in the park. Perhaps it would be wise to reconsider a return to the Big 12. If L.A. is tough, give Waco, Texas, a shot.

The staggering buyouts make it difficult for both Norvell and Riley to be let go.

On the other hand, Hugh Freeze is eyeing a bronze medal in the bust competition.

Auburn (2-5) continues to invent new ways to lose games. Their latest defeat came when Missouri drove 95 yards to snatch a 21-17 win. Freeze’s buyout, exceeding $20 million, is still a fraction of what it would cost Florida State or USC to find a new coach. Plus, Auburn has a history of handling buyouts well.

A top-ranked 2025 recruiting class at No. 5 nationwide per 247sports offers Freeze a thin line of defense. In this era, where booster influence reigns supreme, are a few committed recruits enough to salvage a struggling coach?

Ask me again next month based on Auburn’s record and whether that top recruiting class remains intact.

 

Three Takeaways

1. Georgia’s 30-15 upset of Texas boosted the SEC’s ambitions for the most playoff spots. Texas was the last undefeated team in the conference, and despite the loss, they still have a favorable route to the playoffs, while Georgia strengthened its position. Unless there are significant changes in the bubble, achieving five bids for any conference seems unlikely, but the outcome in Austin improved the SEC’s chances for four spots.

 

 

2. Coaches will go to great lengths for an advantage. How long until a coach proposes building a hospital next to the stadium like we saw at Missouri? Missouri quarterback Brady Cook had to visit the hospital mid-game during the Tigers’ win over Auburn for an MRI on his injured ankle. University Hospital is conveniently located just across the street from Faurot Field. Cook managed to return and lead a fourth-quarter comeback. “The top quality of an elite quarterback is toughness,” said Missouri coach Eliah Drinkwitz. “And that guy embodies it.” Proximity to healthcare is also a significant attribute of any hospital.

3. Here’s my latest “Topp Rope” playoff prediction: Georgia (SEC), Ohio State (Big Ten), Clemson (ACC), Brigham Young (Big 12), Boise State (Group of Five), along with potential at-large teams Texas, Texas A&M, Tennessee, Oregon, Penn State, Notre Dame, and Miami. Next up: Iowa State, LSU, Indiana, SMU, Kansas State.