Recent data indicates that a lower number of incoming college freshmen have opted to share their race or ethnicity on applications to several elite institutions this fall.

This emerging trend, which only affects a small segment of the country’s universities, signals potential effects stemming from last year’s Supreme Court ruling that restricted colleges from factoring race into admissions decisions.

Before this ruling, highly selective universities, which do not constitute the majority of U.S. college enrollments, were most inclined to consider race in their admissions processes. While most colleges remained unaffected by the June 2023 ruling, the impact does extend to some of the nation’s wealthiest and most resource-rich institutions. These include Ivy League schools, renowned for both exceptional return on investment and generous financial support for students in need.

Since the Supreme Court’s decision, many people have been monitoring how, if at all, the racial and ethnic composition of new students at preferred colleges might shift. Gradual data from various campuses has started to surface since the fall semester began.

The findings are still preliminary and comparing these varying figures presents challenges. Nonetheless, there are concerning trends, potentially linked to the Supreme Court’s ruling, highlighted by a decline in first-year enrollment of Black and Hispanic students at several prominent universities. Schools like Johns Hopkins University, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and Stanford University have reported reductions in enrollments among these groups, while others, such as Northwestern University and Yale University, have actually seen increases.

A recent analysis by YSL News and the nonprofit group Education Reform Now reveals another notable trend: at numerous elite colleges, an increasing number of applicants opted not to disclose their race or ethnicity. For example, at Pomona College, located about 30 miles east of Los Angeles, the percentage of entering freshmen who did not specify their race jumped from an average of 3.7% in 2022 and 2023 to 6.9% among 2024 applicants. Similar increases were recorded at Stanford, Princeton, Harvard, and other institutions.

At this early stage, it is challenging to determine the reasons behind these changes. However, researchers like Carson Byrd, who studies race in higher education at the University of Michigan, suggest it reflects uncertainty among students about the implications of the Supreme Court’s ruling on their applications.

“It shows how uncertain individuals are regarding the SCOTUS decision and its potential effects on them,” he observed.

Reasons for not identifying race

Despite the Supreme Court’s ban on affirmative action, many colleges have continued to request students to self-identify their race or ethnicity on applications for purposes beyond admissions. Schools frequently track students who identify with multiple racial backgrounds to emphasize their commitment to diversity.

When colleges release data regarding their incoming classes, they often use aggregated data to showcase their dedication to fostering diverse environments. This is important for potential students of color who wonder about their integration into these institutions, remarked James Murphy, director of career pathways and post-secondary policy at Education Reform Now.

“It’s significant for students of color who are considering these colleges and asking themselves, ‘Do I fit in here?’” he explained.

Many colleges were quick to acknowledge their shortcomings, especially regarding diversity, instead of boasting about their demographics this fall, pinning the blame primarily on the Supreme Court’s decision. Murphy recently created a tracker utilizing data from a number of selective schools, highlighting the complexities involved in comparing different institutions’ demographic data.

“These figures are not straightforward by any means,” he stated. “Often, the tracker compares very different data sets, making it a complex exercise.”

Decline in Black student enrollment at selective colleges

While tracking these trends remains challenging, some students report perceptible differences within their campuses.

Murphy’s tracker indicates that Black student enrollment at Amherst College, a private institution in Massachusetts, has plummeted by nearly 75% compared to the average figures from the previous two years. An open letter from Amherst’s Black Student Union, released this month, urged alumni to halt donations until the college administration takes stronger measures to increase the number of Black students.

“We felt as if we were used as symbols of diversity; now, when it truly counts, we find ourselves neglected,” the organization expressed.

Avery Cook, a junior at Amherst College and a member of the Black Student Union, shared that she chose this liberal arts college partly because her competitive high school in New York City had few students who resembled her. However, she observed a notable shift in the campus environment this fall.

“Amherst is a small school, so a significant drop in diversity is visibly felt,” she noted.

Michael Elliott, president of Amherst, affirmed the institution’s dedication to enhancing diversity.

“Many other colleges are experiencing similar effects, and all are assessing the results of this first admission cycle under the new legal standards,” Elliott and other administrators conveyed in a joint message to students and staff in late August. “At Amherst, we will intensify our efforts—while adhering to the law—to connect with and recruit students from diverse backgrounds and experiences.”

Context from Past Bans on Affirmative Action

Like other institutions, Amherst noted a slight increase in new students who opted not to disclose their race this year. Zachary Bleemer, an economics professor at Princeton who analyzed California’s 1990s ban on race-conscious admissions for public universities, observed a similar pattern during that time.

In California, most of the students who chose not to report their race were found to be white or Asian, according to Bleemer’s research. His findings indicated that the state’s contentious law, Proposition 209, resulted in freshman students from underrepresented minorities being forced into “lower-quality colleges.”

“The ban on race-based affirmative action in California pushed many Black and Hispanic students into less selective universities in the following years,” he explained.

It remains uncertain whether the decrease in student diversity at some institutions will continue in the upcoming years. Bleemer noted that the effects of affirmative action bans are typically most pronounced in their first year.

During a dinner with journalists in Washington, D.C., this fall, several notable college presidents candidly discussed the impact of the Supreme Court’s ruling on race-conscious admissions. John Bravman, president of Bucknell University in Pennsylvania, remarked that it’s a “statistical fact” the decision is “altering our populations.” However, he advised caution in drawing broader conclusions.

“We’re still in the initial stages,” Bravman stated. “Let’s wait to see how the numbers develop.”