Welcome to the top of the US LBM Coaches Poll, Oregon. Tread carefully. The ground’s a bit shaky this college football season, even for teams that have had their share of success.

By the end of a wild Saturday in Austin, Texas, the Longhorns found themselves with a loss, Georgia had regained its winning reputation, and Alabama suffered yet another defeat.

As Week 8 came to a close, “The Eyes of Texas” echoed a more somber note, while Iowa State, Indiana, and Illinois boasted records that surpassed Alabama’s.

Here are some lingering thoughts I have:

After the Tennessee defeat, is Alabama out of the College Football Playoff race?

No.

This situation falls into the category of multiple truths coexisting.

The facts are that since Alabama’s victory over Georgia three weeks ago, the Crimson Tide hasn’t played like a playoff contender. They lost to Vanderbilt and Tennessee, and barely escaped against South Carolina.

Another fact: Historically, Alabama is a favorite for the playoff selection committee. Moreover, the win against Georgia is one of the most notable triumphs this season, alongside Georgia’s win over Texas, Oregon’s victory against Ohio State, and Vanderbilt’s upset over Alabama.

No. 15 Alabama (5-2) shone brightly in its first half against Georgia in front of a lively home audience, while the Bulldogs experienced a significant downfall. Both teams have changed since then, revealing numerous flaws on Alabama’s side.

Quarterback Jalen Milroe made six turnovers in the last three games, which is unacceptable. Alabama’s chances for playoff contention hinge on Milroe’s ability to lead rather than hinder.

With so many two-loss teams in the playoff race, if Alabama can finish with a 10-2 record, they could still be in the running. By that time, their win over Georgia may look even more significant.

A 10-2 record would not be sufficient for No. 17 Missouri (6-1). Texas A&M has already overwhelmed Missouri, which faced one of the easier schedules in the SEC this season.

As Alabama faces off against Missouri this Saturday, treat it as a do-or-die game for the playoffs.

Neither team currently meets the expectations for a typical playoff team, but there’s no exact science to determine the “last team in” for a 12-team playoff system. In this expanded playoff, not all qualifying teams will resemble the 2020 Alabama or the 2022 Georgia.

This season, Alabama has mostly strived to outperform the disappointing 2007 Alabama team, which ended with a 7-6 record in Nick Saban’s debut year—and there hasn’t been a playoff big enough for the ’07 squad to fit in.

Fans of Alabama used to sport pins that read: BEAT EVERYONE.

This mindset worked well during Saban’s reign, but I envision a rebranding for this team: BEAT ANYONE. PLEASE.

Did Georgia reclaim its status as the team to beat after defeating Texas?

No, Georgia is not the top team, as no unstoppable force currently exists.

We’ve become accustomed to identifying one or two elite teams. During Nick Saban’s dynasty, Alabama was that team. Then, Kirby Smart transformed Georgia into a powerhouse.

This season is different. There’s no standout super team. Georgia’s defense showed strength against Texas, and its offense did just enough to win.

While I could support the idea that Georgia is the leading contender for the national championship, I could also present strong arguments for Oregon and Ohio State, who have better-performing offenses than Georgia.

Georgia’s 30-15 victory over Texas demonstrated that the Bulldogs, along with several other teams, are capable of winning the national title. However, it did not confirm that the championship is theirs to lose.

Different tiers of championship contenders are becoming evident. At the top tier are Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon, and … Texas.

The first three are clear choices, but … Texas? Yes, I’m placing the Longhorns in my top tier despite their recent loss. Their defense has been remarkable. Even though Georgia scored 30 points, four turnovers from Texas set up the Bulldogs in great positions. Only one of Georgia’s scoring drives exceeded 34 yards.

Few teams could dismantle Texas’ offensive line like Georgia did. Additionally, quarterback Quinn Ewers has more potential than he exhibited. If Ewers regains his early-season form and the matchups favor Texas, they could contend for the title. Similarly, Georgia, Ohio State, and Oregon are all capable. Collectively, they represent the current teams to watch.

With Southern California, Michigan, Florida State, and Oklahoma struggling, who faces termination?

None of the head coaches.

I recognize that frustrated fans often shout to “fire everyone!” when a season falters, but that approach isn’t practical for these elite programs facing tough times.

Let’s take a look at Michigan’s Sherrone Moore. This is his first year, and he has a hefty buyout of over $18 million. He’ll have another opportunity to show what he can do. Considering Michigan’s roster, the Wolverines’ current record of 4-3 is fitting. Jim Harbaugh left him with a tough quarterback situation that he needs to fix promptly, ideally by 2025.

Next, we turn our attention to Lincoln Riley. USC’s 3-4 record is disappointing for a coach in his third year at such a high price. Over the past 14 games, Riley’s record is 5-9. In comparison, Florida’s Billy Napier and Arkansas’ Sam Pittman stand at 6-8 in their last 14 games. Out of the three, only Riley seems safe, and that’s likely due to financial considerations. While his buyout isn’t publicly available—since USC is a private institution—it is suspected to be significantly high, more than Napier’s or Pittman’s buyouts.

Now let’s discuss Brent Venables from Oklahoma. The Sooners’ 4-3 performance has been particularly underwhelming. Surprisingly, Oklahoma gave Venables a raise and an extension before this season started, despite his mediocre record so far and the lack of interest from other programs. This decision results in a staggering $45 million buyout, meaning he can dismiss his offensive coordinator instead of facing termination himself.

Lastly, we look at Florida State, which makes sense given their situation. The Seminoles are struggling at 1-6 and seem disengaged. However, coach Mike Norvell has turned a successful 2023 season (13-1) and Alabama’s vacancy into a lucrative contract, resulting in a buyout of almost $64 million at the end of the season. So, Florida State fans may be frustrated, but Norvell is still at the helm.

A Potential Nightmare for the College Football Playoff Committee

My prediction for Selection Sunday: someone will be left out. While not every unexpected playoff team will last until December, the competition is heating up, making it likely for some to miss the cut. A potential nightmare scenario for the selection committee would involve both Brigham Young and Iowa State entering the Big 12 championship game undefeated, with a one-loss Clemson defeating an undefeated Miami for the ACC title.

If this occurs, both the Big 12 and ACC could secure an at-large bid each, which would leave only five at-large spots for teams from the SEC, Big Ten, and Notre Dame.

This could get messy.

Indeed, someone will be left on the outside looking in.