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HomeLocalTrust in Election Integrity Amidst Concerns of Violence: The Harris-Trump Poll Analysis

Trust in Election Integrity Amidst Concerns of Violence: The Harris-Trump Poll Analysis

 

Poll on Harris vs. Trump: Americans trust the vote tally but fear potential violence


What comes next?

 

A recent poll by YSL News and Suffolk University reveals that Americans remain anxious beyond Election Day. The nation is sharply divided between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump, with many concerned about vote counting accuracy, the prospect of a peaceful transfer of power, and the likelihood of political violence.

This poll, which surveyed 1,000 likely voters from October 14 to 18 via landline and cell phones, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Here are seven key insights regarding the aftermath of the election.

Do you trust the vote count?

Almost 80% of voters say yes. A significant portion expressed high confidence in the counting process, with 43% indicating they are “very” confident and 36% “somewhat” confident that the election results will be accurately tallied and reported.

Confidence levels vary significantly between supporters of Harris and Trump. Among Harris’s backers, 70% expressed strong confidence, and 25% were somewhat confident; only 4% did not trust the process. Conversely, 34% of Trump’s supporters expressed a lack of confidence, a sentiment that Trump has perpetuated by claiming, without supporting evidence, that the 2020 election was “rigged.”

 

Pamela Anderson, 78, a Trump supporter from Alabama, expressed uncertainty about the outcome’s reliability, saying, “That’s kind of a toss-up.”

 

“I have faith in our established institutions,” stated Kyle Ejsmont, 32, a Harris supporter from Philadelphia. He also voiced concerns, noting reports of potential Republican lawsuits aimed at challenging the ballot process. “That makes me really worried,” he added.

 

Will you accept the result?

The majority indicate they will accept the outcomes, but not everyone feels that way.

If Harris were to lose, a large 88% of her supporters stated they would accept the election results as fair, while only 7% would not.

 

Lisa Dolan, 59, a retired business owner from Robinson, Illinois, commented, “I will accept it as legitimate, but I will struggle to cope with that.”

 

If Trump were to lose, only 61% of his supporters indicated they would acknowledge the results, while 24% would not accept Harris as a legitimate president. Rhonda Wax, 63, a Republican from Murfreesboro, Tennessee, remarked on her doubts, saying, “I noticed things in the last election that seemed strange.” She referenced historic accusations of election fraud but acknowledged that no substantial fraud evidence has emerged in recent presidential elections.

 

Trust is greater in local election officials

Supporters of Trump showed more confidence in their local election processes than the national level, with 79% trusting local officials compared to 12% who did not. Confidence was even higher among Harris voters, at 95% versus 12%.

This difference in trust may stem from voters witnessing their local voting operations firsthand, rather than relying on reports from other areas.

“I have done ID checks for incoming voters on Election Day,” explained Mark Lioi, 59, a political independent and copy editor from Wellington, Florida. “I’ve also taken part in a recount during the 2008 presidential race in Palm Beach County. Polling places are run efficiently by capable individuals,” he further stated.

 

Fear winning or dread losing?

This election cycle seems to be dominated more by the fear of losing than the excitement of winning.

If Trump wins, 37% of those surveyed would feel “scared,” compared to 23% who would feel “enthusiastic.” If Harris were to emerge victorious, 30% would feel “scared,” while 27% would feel “enthusiastic,” highlighting a similar trend where fear outweighs excitement.

“He’s just a very scary person,” Lisa Dolan remarked about Trump, criticizing his views on women and immigration, along with his economic policies.

 

Anderson, a Trump supporter, expressed concern for her family’s future if Harris were to win, particularly regarding illegal immigration’s effects on schools and crime.

“I’m expecting a granddaughter in February of ’25 alongside my five other grandchildren,” she said. “I don’t worry about my own future; I worry about theirs. Without change, I’m uncertain what the future holds for the United States.”

 

Americans Preparing for Potential Violence

A significant two-thirds of participants in the survey expressed worries about possible political violence occurring on Election Day and afterward.

This includes 27% who feel “very concerned” and another 39% who are “somewhat concerned.” In contrast, only 31% reported being “not very” or “not at all” worried.

There was a clear partisan split on this topic. About 86% of Harris supporters expressed fears about violence, while nearly half of Trump supporters (47%) claimed they weren’t too worried.

“Violence tends to escalate, and we’ve been seeing it grow for a while now,” stated Daniel Mori, a 45-year-old Republican from New York City who is voting for Harris. He feels there’s a lack of constructive “political dialogue” that could mitigate this trend. “I suspect we haven’t seen the last of political violence yet.”

 

Patricia Smith, a 54-year-old homemaker from Lawton, Oklahoma, who supports Trump, downplayed concerns regarding incidents similar to the Capitol attack during the counting of Electoral College votes on January 6, 2021.

“The violence wasn’t any worse than previous events in places like Wisconsin or Seattle during the race riots,” she commented. “Violence is violence.”

Will Power Transition be Peaceful?

Opinions vary widely.

Three-quarters of Trump supporters believe that power will be handed over peacefully in January. This includes 36% who are “very confident” and 38% who are “somewhat confident.” Only 13% were “not very confident,” with a mere 7% declaring they are “not at all confident.”

Conversely, Harris supporters were less assured. About 35% showed little or no confidence regarding a smooth transition, and only 17% felt “very confident.”

 

“I believe Harris will win both the electoral and popular votes,” remarked Erin Parker, a 52-year-old from Tangent, Oregon, who identifies as a registered Republican leaning independent and plans to vote for Harris. “However, I worry it may be close enough for Trump to challenge the results and attempt to overturn them.”

Voters Remind Candidates: Don’t Be a Sore Loser

A clear majority of voters—64% to 22%—want their candidate to participate in the inauguration on January 20, should they lose.

This sentiment includes 72% of Harris supporters, who would typically attend as the outgoing vice president. Meanwhile, 54% of Trump supporters think he should go as well. Former presidents traditionally receive an invitation. However, 27% believe he should not attend, with an additional 18% remaining undecided.

“I was disappointed when Trump skipped the 2020 inauguration,” stated Wax, a Trump supporter, while admitting she understands his perspective. “I think he felt he was cheated.”