WASHINGTON — Republicans have made significant gains in early voting, particularly in crucial swing states, making Vice President Kamala Harris’s early vote numbers lag behind where Democrats were at the same point four years ago.

This shift comes after a focused effort from Republican nominee Donald Trump’s campaign to motivate supporters to take advantage of early voting options, including mail-in ballots, despite Trump’s previous criticism of the practice during the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2020 election.

During a rally in Duluth, Georgia, Trump highlighted the record early voting numbers in the pivotal state, stating that “people have never seen anything like it.” Yet, experts in election data warn that the Republicans’ increased early votes don’t present a definitive picture, and Harris’s allies are maintaining that there’s no need for concern.

Democratic strategists anticipated some Republican progress due to Trump’s increased emphasis on early voting and a change in behavior from Democrats who tended to vote by mail during the pandemic, suggesting many are now planning to vote on November 5 instead.

As of Thursday, approximately 30 million Americans had cast their votes early—either in person or by mail—according to the University of Florida Election Lab, which monitors these numbers daily. In 2020, over 100 million individuals voted early out of a total approximately 158 million votes cast, leading to a victory for President Joe Biden, a Democrat.

In states permitting party registration for voters in 2024, 42% of early votes have been cast by registered Democrats, while 35% come from registered Republicans, with the remaining 23% from non-registered voters.

This early-vote lead is smaller for Democrats compared to 2020. In that election, Democrats represented a larger share of early votes—45%, compared to 31% for Republicans and 24% for those unaffiliated with any party. Even though Trump and the Republicans excelled on Election Day in 2020, it wasn’t sufficient to secure a second presidential term.

With just 12 days to go before Election Day, Republicans have narrowed the Democrats’ 14-point early-vote lead from 2020 to just 7 points.

“It appears that Trump has encouraged his supporters to vote early in-person this time,” noted Michael McDonald, a political science professor at the University of Florida, who leads the Election Lab.

However, he pointed out that many loyal Trump voters who preferred to vote on Election Day in 2020 may now be voting early, which could potentially “cannibalize” the usual Republican turnout on Election Day itself.

“It seems there’s an adjustment happening, but the extent is unclear,” McDonald remarked. “That said, having more of their voters vote early is advantageous for Trump’s campaign.”

Republicans gain ground in early voting in battleground states

Among the seven most fiercely contested states—Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada—voters can register with a party.

• In Pennsylvania, where all early voting is done via mail, 61% of the 1.2 million ballots cast thus far have come from registered Democrats, compared to 29% from Republicans and 9% from voters not registered with any party. In the same period of 2020, Democrats made up 72% of returned mail ballots, while Republicans accounted for 19%, and unaffiliated voters 9%.
• In North Carolina, where a total of 2 million early votes have been cast both in person and by mail, the distribution is close, with 35% from registered Democrats, 34% from registered Republicans, and 31% from those not affiliated with either party. At this point in 2020, Democrats represented 43% of the state’s early votes.

• In early and absentee voting, 28% of the ballots are from Republicans, while non-affiliated voters account for 29%.
• In Nevada, where all voters receive a mail ballot, 40% of early ballots are from registered Republicans, 37% from Democrats, and 23% from unaffiliated voters. This differs from 2020, when Democrats represented 45% of Nevada’s early votes and Republicans 33%.
• In Arizona, 42% of returned early mail ballots are from registered Republicans, 36% from Democrats, and 22% from non-affiliated voters. During the same period in 2020, Democratic voters made up 44% of Arizona’s early vote, while Republicans accounted for 34%.

The distribution of early votes between the Democratic and Republican parties will keep fluctuating until Election Day. Other factors also influence this in certain states. For instance, in Arizona, there are more registered Republicans than Democrats, despite Biden winning the state four years ago.

Nevada’s new automatic voter registration law has increased the number of voters without an affiliation to any party. Democrats believe these unaffiliated voters lean in their favor.

Tom Bonier, CEO of TargetSmart, a firm aligned with Democrats that monitors early voting statistics, noted that Democrats were more cautious during the COVID pandemic in 2020 and therefore, were more inclined to vote early.

With more Democrats shifting to voting on Election Day in 2024, compared to early voting in 2020, and Republicans doing the opposite, Bonier anticipated the early voting increase for Republicans. He cautioned against drawing definitive conclusions from these early voting numbers in an analysis posted on Substack.

Bonier commented, “While this was anticipated, does it indicate increased Republican enthusiasm?” in a conversation with YSL News. “At this stage, it’s hard to say.”

Trump Alters Approach to Early Voting

In the lead-up to the 2020 election, Trump consistently criticized early mail-in voting with unfounded claims regarding its legitimacy. His statements helped Biden and the Democrats build a significant lead from early votes before the actual Election Day voting commenced.

This year, however, the Trump campaign has shifted its stance by promoting early and mail-in voting to prevent a repeat of the past experience.

Georgia has seen a record-breaking 2.1 million individuals vote early, either by mail or in person; it is not classified among battleground states with party registration. North Carolina has also experienced record-breaking early voting.

Karoline Leavitt, the Trump campaign’s national press secretary, stated, “We are significantly outperforming our share of early votes compared to two or four years ago in all battleground states,” adding that Trump is “in a strong position for victory on November 5.”

The campaign for Harris has downplayed the Republican gains in early voting. They attribute the Republicans’ increase to the significant Democratic early voting seen during the 2020 pandemic and point to Trump’s newfound support for early voting in this election.

According to Lauren Hitt, spokesperson for the Harris campaign, “There’s no evidence that these early returns indicate a broader increase in GOP participation this election. Instead, Trump is no longer criticizing early voting openly as he did in 2020, leading more of his core supporters to utilize it now.”

The Harris campaign also pointed to voter file data showing that many Republicans voting early in 2024 were voters on Election Day in 2020. Additionally, they expressed optimism about voter participation trends among Black voters in Detroit and Black women in Georgia.

A recent poll from YSL News and Suffolk University, conducted from October 14 to 18, found that Harris leads Trump among early voters, 63%-34%. In contrast, likely voters planning to wait for Election Day prefer Trump, 52%-35%.

McDonald, head of the Election Lab, noted that while the Trump campaign has reason to be optimistic about early voting among Republicans, it remains early in the voting period for definitive conclusions.

For instance, in North Carolina, organized efforts to mobilize Black voters haven’t officially started yet, and younger voters often wait until the final week of in-person early voting. These aspects should influence the

Democratic early voting statistics in North Carolina.

“What will this mean?” It’s tough to predict,” McDonald remarked, pointing out that a major concern is how many Republicans will opt to vote on Election Day, given that a significant number have already cast their ballots early. “This is going to be the unpredictable factor. How conservative will Election Day turnout be?”