Can you guess which state has the most powerful votes in the 2024 presidential election? Pennsylvania? Georgia? Arizona?
While all these could be valid answers, WalletHub’s recent analysis indicates that voters in Nevada may possess the most impactful votes this election cycle. Unsurprisingly, voters in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona will also have significant influence. WalletHub, a personal finance platform, considered three key factors to determine these results:
â—¾ The competitiveness of the races: Recent models from YouGov indicate that North Carolina and Georgia may see the closest presidential votes, while states like West Virginia, Wyoming, and Washington, D.C. are expected to be the least competitive.
â—¾ The number of electoral votes from each state: For example, California has 54 electoral votes while Texas has 40, whereas six states along with D.C. have just three.
â—¾ The state’s registered voter population: We adjusted WalletHub’s formula to focus on registered voters from November 2022, leading to similar rankings but with higher “vote power scores” for battleground states.
Comparing the power of votes in Nevada and Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania, with its 19 electoral votes and competitive polling, has seen numerous visits from the campaigns of former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. How do votes in Nevada, which has only six electoral votes, compare to those in Pennsylvania?
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Even though the voting influence of Pennsylvanians is significantly lower than that of Nevadans, their votes still hold considerable weight compared to the rest of the nation. The voting power scores of the seven battleground states, as identified by Real Clear Politics, are much higher than those of most other states, with only six others reaching triple-digit scores.
Comparing voter power rankings across states
Ultimately, WalletHub multiplies each state’s score by one million. This adjustment makes the numbers simpler to understand and symbolically emphasizes that while the weights of our votes differ in national elections, they tend to carry the most weight in local and state elections.
Interactive list of each state’s voter power rankings
Interactive list of Senate voter power rankings for 2024 elections
WalletHub employs a different approach in assessing voter power in Senate races, considering each state’s two senators relative to the number of Electoral College votes each state yields.
States with smaller electorates exert greater influence in Senate races
In Senate elections, states with a lower number of registered voters can have a disproportionate effect. For instance, Montana, with just over 600,000 registered voters in 2022, may play a crucial role in determining whether Democrats keep their Senate seat in a race where incumbent Democrat Jon Tester is trailing Republican Tim Sheehy.
