With just 10 days left until Election Day, the weather predictions for this pivotal occasion are becoming clearer.

Weather experts predict that the central United States will experience the most significant weather activity on Tuesday, November 5, due to a cold front that may bring showers and thunderstorms, potentially impacting key swing states like Wisconsin and Michigan.

Although weather typically isn’t viewed as a critical influence on voting behavior, long-standing studies show that inclement weather “deters voter turnout on Election Day, particularly among younger people, infrequent voters, and those who usually lean Democratic,” according to a recent article by Journalist’s Resource.

Even if weather could influence the election, the forecast appears to be largely calm across many parts of the country for November 5.

Severe Weather in the Central U.S.

Fortunately, there are no extreme temperatures expected anywhere in the U.S. this Election Day, with typical early November weather predicted. The densely populated areas on both the East and West Coasts are expected to remain dry and clear.

The central part of the U.S. is likely to see the most weather activity on Election Day, as a cold front is expected to pass through, leading to rain and thunderstorms, some of which could become severe, according to AccuWeather meteorologist Paul Pastelok in an interview with YSL News.

Major cities like Houston, Chicago, and Detroit could experience rain and storms, with the potential for severe weather in areas like the Tennessee Valley, mid-Mississippi Valley, and lower Ohio Valley.

When it comes to how these storms might affect Election Day, Pastelok pointed out that this is contingent on their severity and whether they create hazardous conditions like tornadoes or hail. He also mentioned that lightning could pose a risk for individuals waiting in line to vote outdoors.

Clear Conditions on the Coasts

Most of the West and East Coasts are expected to be clear and dry on Election Day, including several crucial swing states like Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada.

However, one potential exception is the Pacific Northwest, where rain might affect voters in Seattle and Portland, according to Pastelok.

Impact of Rain on Voter Turnout

An interview with Bill Kirk, CEO of weathertrends360, revealed that multiple academic studies indicate that for every inch of rainfall on Election Day, voter turnout decreases by 2.5 percent, irrespective of political affiliation.

Additionally, Kirk noted that research suggests rainy weather tends to disadvantage the Democratic Party, as polling places in urban areas—often leaning liberal—frequently have longer lines outside. In contrast, rural voters, who generally lean Republican, may find it easier to drive to polling centers.

According to Paul Walsh from the Weather Company, who communicated with YSL News prior to a previous election, “Weather can greatly influence voter turnout, and adverse conditions disproportionately affect Democratic voters’ access to polling places compared to their Republican counterparts.”

Extreme Weather on Election Day

Reflecting on past elections, weathertrends360 shares some memorable weather events:

∎ In 1924, Arizonans voted in scorching 100-degree temperatures (Calvin Coolidge was the victor).

∎ Alaskans faced -41 degrees during Ronald Reagan’s reelection in 1984.

∎ Hurricanes have also impacted elections, with Hurricane Sandy affecting the Obama-Romney race in 2012.