Who will be victorious in the 2024 presidential elections?

This question is on the minds of many across the nation as various analysts—spanning pollsters, academicians, and global bookmakers—share their findings and predictions with an eager public curious about the possibility of either a Kamala Harris or Donald Trump presidency.

No one can accurately forecast the outcome of the election slated for November 5, especially since millions of Americans have already participated in early voting, while countless others are still preparing to cast their votes for the individual they believe should guide the country for the next four years.

Amidst a deepening political divide, there’s notable concern regarding the election results.

Over 70% of U.S. adults report that the nation’s future, along with its political and economic state, significantly stresses them, as indicated by a recent study from the American Psychological Association.

“People shouldn’t be passive about this; it’s vital for people to speculate since this particular election is crucial,” stated Imani Cherry, a media and public affairs professor at George Washington University.

“Many critical issues weigh heavily on the minds of millions of citizens,” Cherry continued.

As the unprecedented matchup between Harris and Trump nears its conclusion, experts caution against making predictions about a winner.

“Polling is not a predictive tool; it only reflects a moment in time,” remarked Republican pollster Robert Blizzard. “My role is not to forecast a result but to utilize polling to support my candidate or client’s goals effectively.”

This tightly contested election has shown remarkable resilience against significant news stories, including President Joe Biden’s recent departure, ongoing economic challenges, Harris’ historic campaign, and two assassination attempts directed at Trump.

Experts who shared insights with YSL News believe that attempting to predict whether Trump or Harris will reach the White House is fraught with inaccuracies, primarily due to the influx of polling data in the days leading up to the election and partisan surveys aimed at swaying supporters, alongside sports bettors wanting to profit, and predictive models relying on questionable methodologies.

Others emphasize the alarming shortage of quality surveys in swing states that usually fill the final days of a general election, suggesting it may be time for news organizations to rethink their dependence on polling narratives altogether.

“People need to stop riding the polling rollercoaster and take a step back, as there are efforts to manipulate public perception,” commented Democratic pollster Cornell Belcher, who has collaborated on both Obama campaigns in 2008 and 2012.

“It’s not the purpose of polls or pollsters to predict the future because simply put, we can’t,” he concluded.

Forecasting the Winner of the Race

The U.S. hasn’t experienced a significant presidential victory margin since 1984, when GOP incumbent President Ronald Reagan easily won by taking 49 out of 50 states against Democratic contender Walter Mondale.

Since then, elections have become increasingly competitive, as highlighted in the 2000 and 2016 elections, where the Democratic candidate won the popular vote but not the Electoral College. The current political environment is further complicated by a saturated media landscape, along with a burgeoning industry of pollsters, commentators, and even gamblers aiming to inform both sides—and anxious undecided voters—about potential outcomes.

Among the most notable sources is FiveThirtyEight, which has gained traction as a vital reference for strategists, media outlets, and even everyday viewers engaging with the perceived competition for the nation’s top role. This platform utilizes an intricate statistical model to assess possible outcomes, currently favoring Trump, who emerges victorious in 51 out of 100 scenarios.

However, skeptics caution against overinterpreting these models, considering they frequently employ polling firms with varied accuracy ratings.

FiveThirtyEight is reminding its readers that, not long ago, Kamala Harris had a greater chance of winning, and that can change if “a few positive polls” appear for her campaign.

The site emphasizes that when a candidate’s winning chances are around 50%, it means they have just slightly better odds than flipping a coin. Nate Silver, the founder of FiveThirtyEight, expressed in a New York Times op-ed that “50-50 is the most responsible prediction” for this election cycle.

Models don’t always get it right; for instance, during the 2012 election, President Obama defied expectations by winning against Mitt Romney. Similarly, forecasts erroneously indicated that Hillary Clinton would win over Trump in 2016 and underestimated his performance in the 2020 election.

Experts are concerned that as the 2024 election nears, predictive models could be swayed by partisan strategies aiming to inflate a candidate’s polling numbers. In a time when misinformation is rampant, supporters might mistakenly believe their candidate is guaranteed to win due to polling information or early voting figures.

This month, The New Republic highlighted the surge of Trump-aligned polls released over the summer designed to shift election forecasts in his benefit.

Many Trump supporters are apprehensive that if he loses, it might trigger a reaction similar to the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot.

Blizzard, a Republican pollster, stated he hasn’t conducted surveys for Trump this year, but he’s confident that firms on both sides of the political spectrum often promote only favorable data while ignoring negative results.

“If I don’t recognize the pollster—for instance, if they lack credible clients, a proven history, or solely focus on horse race polling—I’m less inclined to take their results seriously,” he noted.

Blizzard added that most polling for campaigns has concluded at this stage, with reputable firms now using their data to strategize advertisement placements and allocate resources effectively.

Experts are more worried about the influence of dishonest actors manipulating narratives than about the small percentage leads indicating a statistical tie that can easily swing either way.

According to Cheery, a professor specializing in media and public affairs, the media significantly shapes this narrative, as polling stories tend to attract audience interest.

She believes there should be a greater emphasis on the implications of policy differences between Harris and Trump.

Instead of merely predicting outcomes, Cheery encourages her students to engage in grassroots discussions about the significance of the White House race and how citizens can actively participate in democracy instead of being distracted by entertainment-oriented coverage focused on potential winners.

“I believe polls do have a role in political discussion, but they often provide a narrow perspective,” she said. “It’s crucial to acknowledge various factors affecting voter choices, especially for those who might claim, ‘all the polls indicated Trump would win, and he didn’t—it was rigged.'”

‘A risky and uncertain situation’

As of now, around 34 million Americans have already voted early in 2024, with Democrats slightly ahead, according to the University of Florida Election Lab, which tracks these numbers regularly.

The data points to approximately 41% of early votes coming from registered Democrats compared to 35% from registered Republicans. However, experts who’ve studied voter behavior for years warn against reading too much into early voting statistics.

One important factor is that early voting data is mainly from states where voters register by party. Additionally, the comparison base is the 2020 election, when access to ballots was expanded for the first time due to the global COVID-19 pandemic.

Cathy J. Cohen, a political science professor at the University of Chicago, has been conducting surveys among Black and Hispanic voters as part of the GenForward youth project at the university.

She highlights that the average American may not fully grasp the limitations or subtleties of polling data, including factors like sample size,

Cohen pointed out that the demographics represented in a survey, as well as how the questions are phrased and sequenced, play a significant role in shaping the survey’s outcomes.

“There’s a notable distinction and a considerable divide between someone participating in a survey and someone who takes the time to put on their coat, travel by car or bus, wait in line, and ensure they are registered to vote,” Cohen explained.

Political analysts should prioritize observing trends throughout an electoral cycle rather than fixating on potential results. However, this has not deterred other organizations from stepping in as many traditional firms seem to be retreating during the 2024 election.

Numerous offshore betting platforms, including Polymarket—the biggest crypto trading site in the world—have been referenced by Trump and his supporters, with forecasts suggesting he could win a second non-consecutive presidential term. An individual trader from France reportedly staked a staggering $28 million across four separate accounts on the GOP candidate regaining power.

Joshua Barton, a representative for BetOnline.ag, noted that betting on U.S. elections, which includes wagers on who will win and about voter turnout, has seen a tremendous rise in interest over the last ten years.

“In terms of total amount bet, it will surpass Super Bowl figures due to the influx of large gamblers eager to place their bets on the election outcome,” Barton shared during an interview.

He further mentioned that some individuals may not bet on anything else for another four years, but they are keen to risk money on the election results.

It remains unclear how much these and other indicators, such as stock market trends prior to elections, can reliably forecast who might win between Trump and Harris. This unpredictability worries Cohen and other scholarly experts, who assert that polls should focus more on understanding Americans’ thoughts rather than attempting to predict the future or turning a profit.

“Polls can offer a glimpse into predictions, but it is unwise to heavily rely on them for forecasting outcomes,” she cautioned.

“Engaging in this realm is risky and uncertain when it comes to human behavior.”