WASHINGTON – In recent weeks, polls show Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are in a close competition, a trend that seems to be consistent according to two new surveys released on Sunday.

A CBS News/YouGov poll indicates that Harris holds a slight lead over Trump nationally with 50% to 49% among likely voters, which is a slight drop from a previous 51%-48% lead in mid-October. However, this margin still falls within the survey’s margin of error.

Meanwhile, an ABC News/Ipsos poll shows Harris leading Trump by 51% to 47% among likely voters, attributed in part to her strong support among women. This result is marginally outside the poll’s margin of error, which is +/-2.5 percentage points.

Experts believe the election will ultimately depend on which campaign can effectively mobilize voters in the weeks leading up to Election Day, particularly in the seven key battleground states expected to be pivotal for the presidential race.

Here are the key takeaways from the presidential polling results on Sunday, October 27.

ABC: Harris in the Lead – but the Race Remains Close

ABC reports that while Harris has a 51%-47% lead nationally among likely voters, the contest is still too close to call in crucial states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada.

The competition is also quite tight among all registered voters, not just those likely to participate in the election, with Harris leading Trump by 49%-47%, which again falls within the margin of error.

This particular poll was conducted online from October 18-22, in both English and Spanish, and involved 2,808 adults. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2.5 percentage points for likely voters, +/- 2 percentage points for registered voters, and +/-5.5 percentage points for swing states.

Key Issues: Economy and Immigration for Republicans, Health Care and Democracy for Democrats

Harris has strong support among those who prioritize health care access and the protection of democracy, while Trump appeals more to voters focused on the economy and immigration policy.

Among Democratic respondents, 90% emphasize the importance of health care, compared to 64% of Republicans. Furthermore, 91% of Democrats prioritize “protecting American democracy,” versus 80% of Republicans.

Conversely, 96% of surveyed Republican voters regard the economy as a major concern, in comparison to 86% of Democrats. Additionally, 90% of Republican respondents highlight the significance of the immigration situation at the U.S.-Mexico border, while 50% of Democrats share this view.

CBS: Trump and Harris in a Stalemate

The CBS poll reflects a 1 percentage point lead for Harris nationally, but reports a tie at 50%-50% in key battleground states.

This report identifies demographic factors, particularly the notable gender gap, with women voters being 10 percentage points more likely to believe that only Kamala Harris possesses the mental and cognitive abilities to serve as president, while Trump does not.

Overall, 55% of Democratic respondents likely to vote this fall indicate they support Harris, compared to 45% of Democratic men. Among Trump supporters, 43% of Republican women back him, while 54% of GOP men do.

The CBS/YouGov survey was conducted with 1,261 voters from October 23-25, and it has a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points, including swing states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Understanding Polling Data

The margin of error denotes how accurately we can rely on the survey results to represent the wider population.

When a candidate’s lead falls “within” the margin of error, it is deemed a “statistical tie,” as stated by the Pew Research Center.

Pew has also noted that many pollsters have adjusted their methodologies since the 2016 and 2020 elections, during which Trump’s performance was significantly underestimated.