The latest weekend of college football brought some unexpected outcomes and raised several questions. Matt Hayes shares his insights in the First-and-10 column, focusing on crucial topics across the nation as we approach Week 11.

1. The CFP: The Playoff Begins Now

Reflecting on our history with clear perspectives, I pose a straightforward question.

How foolish were we?

How blind was the college football world for over a century, accepting a ridiculous bowl game and voting system to crown a national champion?

Before we dive into the encouraging melody of the new 12-team College Football Playoff, where even Vanderbilt — believe it or not — has a shot at making it to the CFP, let’s quickly summarize the absurd journey that led us to this exciting final month of the regular season.

Once, a group of sports writers (yes, I’m one of them) and television pundits were responsible for voting on the nation’s best teams.

Then, those same members teamed up with — believe it or not — computer analysts, devising a “formula” to determine a one-game playoff. A f-f-f-f-ormula.

Eventually, a selection committee made up chiefly of former coaches and athletic directors (think of a fox in a henhouse) picked four teams to compete in the new CFP.

Finally, we have reached a well-deserved 12-team playoff structure, still with a quirky selection process (more on that soon), but this one allows for less margin for error.

Welcome to your new CFP. Not in a month when the selection committee gathers for their final round under the secrecy of an opaque selection process, but right now.

Games like Georgia at Ole Miss? A playoff matchup. Alabama at LSU? Also a playoff game.

Colorado at Texas Tech, Michigan at Indiana, Washington at Penn State, Utah at BYU — all have CFP implications.

Every game counts, a notion that was once used to market an exclusive postseason division — where November was routinely seen as a crowning time for Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, Oklahoma, and/or Clemson instead of this thrilling, 25-team free-for-all.

“Everything is still in front of us,” said Penn State coach James Franklin following last week’s loss to Ohio State.

In a four-team CFP, Franklin’s “everything” includes a loaded roster of NFL prospects potentially opting out of a meaningless bowl game.

Now, Franklin (and Penn State) have a shot to win a game that really matters — and maybe even more than that.

2. The SEC and the CFP

As we enter the second week of November, eight SEC teams have a real opportunity to make it to the CFP. The challenge? They will knock each other out on their race to the top.

On the other hand, there’s everyone else in college football, where a few matches will secure spots for champions of the ACC, Big 12, and Group of Five. Even the Big Ten, the SEC’s counterpart, seems to have narrowed down to four teams — two (Indiana, Penn State) lacking significant wins.

In fact, Penn State will not secure a significant win, and unless Indiana beats Ohio State in two weeks, they’ll be in the same boat. However, because of a bit of luck in conference scheduling, both could still advance to the CFP with 11-win seasons.

SEC commissioner Greg Sankey isn’t saying it publicly (yet), but this is the reason he has consistently pushed for 12 at-large selections from the committee when the new CFP contract kicks off in 2026.

This brings us to South Carolina, which narrowly lost to LSU by three points and to Alabama by two points – matches they might have won – and now aims to finish with nine wins, potentially outshining half the CFP field.

Yet, there appears to be no room for South Carolina in the CFP, and likely only four SEC spots – unless Notre Dame falters against Florida State, Virginia, Army, or Southern California.

The details for the 2026 CFP format are still in the air, but don’t assume the results of 2024 won’t influence ongoing negotiations. There’s also a genuine chance a two-loss SEC team could miss out entirely, especially if six SEC teams end with two conference losses.

3. Every Game Counts, The Conclusion

If you think politics haven’t played a part in the CFP selection process, you clearly haven’t kept track since the inaugural playoff vote in 2014.

2014: In the final week, TCU trounced Iowa State 55-3, yet slid from No. 3 to No. 6. Meanwhile, a couple of high-profile teams (Ohio State, Florida State), including the undefeated reigning national champion, made it into the final selection.

2016: After Penn State beat Ohio State and clinched the Big Ten title, Ohio State (yet another powerhouse) secured the CFP spot despite their two losses.

2017: Auburn took down Alabama by 12 to close the regular season. They faced Georgia again in the SEC Championship, lost, and dropped from No. 2 to No. 7 in the rankings. Guess who made it instead? Alabama.

2020: Amid the pandemic, the Big Ten altered its return-to-play rules so that unbeaten Ohio State could qualify for the playoff.

2023: Florida State became the first undefeated team from a Power Five conference to miss the CFP, while No. 1 Georgia lost by three to Alabama in the SEC championship and also failed to qualify (again, Alabama did).

There’s too much money involved with  new CFP contract worth $1.2 billion annually means more political maneuvering is likely to continue. However, if you believe that a two-loss Ohio State (with a defeat by Indiana and no chance of making it to the Big Ten championship) and a two-loss Alabama aren’t making the cut, I have a Big Ten invitation for FSU that might interest you.

4. Colorado: November Ascendancy

At the start of the season, many laughed at Colorado. The team struggled to protect quarterback Shedeur Sanders and couldn’t defend against their opponents.

Now, the Buffaloes are one of two one-loss teams in the Big 12, alongside Iowa State, trailing the undefeated Brigham Young. They’re on the brink of playing for a conference championship and a potential spot in the CFP.

The journey begins this Saturday against Texas Tech, which poses the biggest challenge in a November laden with games against Utah, Kansas, and Oklahoma State. From being one of the bottom teams in the Power Five at the end of 2023, they’re now vying for a CFP spot just a year later.

Although Colorado will likely need Iowa State to drop another game to surpass them in the tiebreaker for a Big 12 championship shot, it could be unnecessary. If the Buffaloes can finish the regular season with six consecutive wins, they could become a compelling choice for the CFP selection committee.

Imagine being present in that selection committee room, considering the impact of Deion Sanders and his influential personality, along with the standout skills of his elite son and quarterback, and potential Heisman candidate Travis Hunter, possibly being part of the first 12-team CFP lineup.

This scenario could create an unprecedented ratings spectacle in sports.

5. The Weekly Five: Heisman Race

Here are the top five candidates for the Heisman Trophy as we enter the final month of the season (ranked by likelihood of winning):

1. QB Dillon Gabriel, Oregon: He has impressive stats leading the top team in college football, a typical indication of a Heisman winner.

2. QB Cam Ward, Miami: He’ll likely post the best stats among all players, but will Miami’s weak schedule pose a dilemma?

3. WR/CB Travis Hunter, Colorado: Even though the award mainly goes to quarterbacks, it’s hard to ignore Hunter, who is arguably the best player in the nation.

4. RB Ashton Jeanty, Boise State: While Barry Sanders’ single-season rushing record may be out of reach, hitting 2,000 yards is still a possibility.

5. QB Kurtis Rourke, Indiana: If Rourke guides the Hoosiers to a victory against Ohio State, he could surge into the top three with a legitimate winning shot.

6. NFL Scout Insights: Maryland WR Tai Felton

Here’s an analysis from an NFL scout on a draft-eligible player, who requested anonymity to ensure their team’s draft strategies remain confidential.

“Before this season, Kaden Prather from Maryland was the focus. He fits the mold of a big receiver with speed, similar to DK Metcalf. But I’ve always had my eye on Felton. He’s explosive, quick, lengthy, and boasts an excellent catch radius. He’s a fierce competitor, aggressively pursuing the ball no matter where it lands. This season, he’s having a breakout. What stands out is his increased fluidity and smooth play without any hesitation.”

7. Power Play: Penn State Declining, SMU Advancing

Here’s this week’s College Football Playoff power rankings along with a notable observation:

1. Oregon: Since conceding 34 points in a narrow win over Boise State in Week 2, the Ducks have allowed an average of only 11.8 points per game.

2. Georgia: I have numerous reservations about QB Carson Beck and the overall team dynamics. It hasn’t looked quite right since mid-September, barring the Texas victory.

3. Miami: Outside of their win against Florida State (which has the worst offense in the Power Four conferences), Miami has allowed 34, 38, 45, and 31 points in four matchups versus unranked ACC teams.

4. BYU: They’re set to clash in the Holy War, taking place in Salt Lake City at 8:15 p.m. local time. Things are expected to get wild in Utah.

5. Ohio State: The focus for the upcoming two weeks is: stay healthy during what should be straightforward victories over Purdue and Northwestern, leading into their game against Indiana.

6. Tennessee: Although he’s still finding his footing in the SEC as a redshirt freshman, QB Nico Iamaleava must improve his deep passing to allow the team to fully realize its potential.

7. Texas: The Longhorns are facing a Florida team that seemed to be gaining momentum, arriving in Austin with a walk-on freshman quarterback taking the place of two starters (Graham Mertz, DJ Lagway).

8. Indiana: Michigan may have four losses, but it’s time for the Hoosiers to step up against a Big Ten powerhouse.

9. Notre Dame: If the Fighting Irish fail to win all their remaining games to secure a CFP spot, it would be a more significant upset (and a devastating setback for coach Marcus Freeman) than losing to Northern Illinois.

10. Alabama: A victory against LSU in Baton Rouge could secure Alabama’s CFP berth with the upcoming schedule including Mercer, a trip to Oklahoma, and the Iron Bowl against Auburn.

11. Ole Miss: A victory over Georgia this week would significantly boost their ranking in the CFP.

12. Boise State: The Broncos are just two special teams errors away from being unbeaten and among the top four ranked teams nationally.

13. Penn State: There’s no turning back from the disappointing narrative following the loss to Ohio State, with upcoming games against Washington, and away matches at Purdue, Minnesota, and Maryland.

14. LSU: This is undoubtedly coach Brian Kelly’s weakest LSU team yet, yet a victory over Alabama paired with favorable outcomes elsewhere could still earn a CFP invitation.

15. SMU: This team poses a dual threat: capable of defeating Miami in the ACC championship and pressuring the committee to make a tricky call about the Hurricanes.

16. Colorado: The Buffaloes have improved each week, demonstrating strong coaching and a team dedicated to the winning process.

8. Bonding Over Mail: Lincoln Riley’s Challenge at USC

Matt: Please, tell me I won’t have to keep watching Lincoln Riley struggle at USC. — Tony Bishop, Manhattan Beach, Calif.

Tony:

Unless wealthy donors at USC are ready to spend what could be the highest buyout in college football history, it looks like we’ll see Riley trying to make things work for several more seasons.

As a private institution, USC isn’t obligated to disclose contract specifics. However, the rumored contract is about $110 million for 10 years, although many suspect this figure is understated. That places Riley three years into his tenure, meaning he would still be guaranteed $77 million for the remaining seven years of that deal.

Texas A&M recently settled with Jimbo Fisher for a record-breaking $77.5 million to not coach, and if Riley’s initial contract is indeed lower than expected, he might end up with a larger payout than Fisher. Despite Riley’s team losing 10 out of the last 16 games, the main concern is that former players are starting to voice their doubts about the team’s direction — highlighted by LenDale White’s explicit outburst on X after USC’s fifth loss in the Big Ten during their inaugural season in the conference.

While former players expressing frustration online is one thing, finding donors to cover a $70 million-plus buyout is quite another. That’s still a significant amount, even with the new funds from Big Ten media rights.

9. The Stats: Gators in Trouble

19.5. Virginia Tech’s Antwaun Powell-Ryland tops the nation in sacks (12), while Ole Miss’s Princely Umanmielen ranks 11th with 7.5 sacks.

The common thread? Both players were originally signed during Dan Mullen’s coaching period at Florida, yet they played under current coach Billy Napier before transferring. Together, they’ve racked up 19.5 sacks this season, which is more than the entire Florida team, which has managed only 19 sacks.

In their four defeats this season, Florida recorded just six sacks, compared to 15 in their victories.

10. Concluding Thoughts: Nebraska’s Decline

Nebraska has not made a bowl game since 2016. After starting this season with five wins out of six, the only question remaining was where the devoted Huskers fans would go in December.

However, following three straight losses, they now have just three chances left to secure a bowl bid: against USC, Wisconsin, and Iowa. Things are looking bleak.

With freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola’s recent performance (1 touchdown, 6 interceptions over the last four games), Nebraska will need a surprise win in the final month to avoid extending their drought of six consecutive seasons without a bowl game.