Last Time a Republican Won the Popular Vote
President-elect Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris by nearly 5 million votes but has never secured a popular vote win.
Republican Donald Trump is set to reclaim the presidency, though votes are still being counted nationwide.
As of late Wednesday morning, Trump holds a substantial lead of nearly 5 million votes over Vice President Kamala Harris. If he secures the national popular vote – which won’t affect the overall election decision – it would mark the first time a Republican presidential candidate has won it in 20 years.
Here’s what you need to know about the popular vote and Trump’s potential to win it for the first time in his three presidential runs.
What is the National Popular Vote?
The national popular vote is determined by the total number of votes each candidate receives from individual voters across the nation.
However, it’s the Electoral College that ultimately decides the winners of U.S. presidential elections. The statewide popular votes are tallied to assign each candidate the respective electoral votes, with Nebraska and Maine being exceptions where electors can be split based on the vote distribution.
Though the popular vote doesn’t always determine the final outcome, it reflects the preferences of individual voters and can symbolize a candidate’s support.
Could Trump Win the Popular Vote?
As of late Wednesday morning, Trump received 71.7 million votes, leading Harris, who had 66.8 million.
If Trump wins the popular vote this time, it would be a first in his three attempts for the presidency.
Even though he secured enough electoral votes to win in 2016, he lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton by nearly 2.9 million votes, joining a group of five presidents who won the presidency while losing the popular vote.
In 2020, President Joe Biden emerged victorious in the popular vote by a margin of 4 points over Trump, which helped him unseat the incumbent.
Biden garnered over 81 million votes in the 2020 election, which accounted for over 51% of the popular vote, setting a record for the highest number of votes received by a U.S. presidential candidate.
When Did a Republican Last Win the Popular Vote?
George W. Bush was the last Republican to win the popular vote while running for reelection in 2004.
That year, Bush defeated Democratic candidate John Kerry, achieving 50.7% of the popular vote alongside 286 electoral votes, according to the American Presidency Project.
Interestingly, Bush lost the popular vote in 2000 to Al Gore, who received 48.4%. Votes for third-party candidates contributed to neither major party attaining a majority in the popular vote.
Before Biden and Clinton captured significant portions of the popular vote against Trump, Barack Obama achieved popular vote wins during both his 2008 and 2012 elections against John McCain and Mitt Romney, respectively, according to data from the American Presidency Project.