Hurricane Rafael, which battered Cuba this week with winds up to 115 mph and heavy rain, is not expected to hit the U.S. directly. However, the storm will still affect U.S. coastlines until Monday, causing high surf and hazardous rip currents.

As reported by the National Hurricane Center, Rafael regained its major hurricane status on Friday, with winds reaching a peak of 120 mph, creating swells and rough seas throughout the Gulf of Mexico.

The hurricane’s effect will pose a significant risk of deadly rip currents and high surf along Gulf Coast beaches from Corpus Christi to the Florida peninsula throughout the Veterans Day weekend, according to warnings from National Weather Service offices issued on Friday.

“Swells caused by Rafael are anticipated to cover most of the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days, leading to potentially life-threatening surf conditions and rip currents,” the National Hurricane Center mentioned in its forecast on Friday.

In Corpus Christi, wave heights were projected to reach up to 8 feet on Friday, rising to about 10 feet over the weekend, as reported by the weather service. Similarly, beaches in Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle could see waves as high as seven feet.

In an advisory released early Friday, the hurricane center indicated that Rafael, currently moving westward as a Category 3 hurricane, is expected to weaken and transform into a tropical storm by Saturday.

Rafael’s impact on Cuba

Rafael drenched western Cuba and knocked out the entire electrical grid when it hit the island as a Category 3 storm. The resulting blackout exacerbated an ongoing crisis that had already left many Cubans without power for over two weeks due to prior grid failures.

Ahead of the storm, tens of thousands were evacuated, while approximately 10 million Cubans were still without electricity on Thursday as efforts to restore power continued. State media in the country reported that power was restored in some sectors, but Havana, the capital, remained largely dark.

Forecasts indicated additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches on Friday, resulting in total storm accumulations of up to 12 inches in parts of western Cuba, with risks of flash flooding and landslides, particularly in elevated regions.

Is Hurricane Rafael heading to the US?

The forecast suggests that Florida and the rest of the United States will avoid a direct hit, as recent insights from AccuWeather predict that Rafael will bypass the central Gulf region.

Rafael’s trajectory appears to be shifting westward, steering it away from the U.S., according to meteorologists at AccuWeather. This would mark Rafael as the first hurricane of 2024 entering the Gulf of Mexico without making landfall in the United States.

“The effects of Rafael on the U.S. will primarily be indirect, manifested as rough seas in the Gulf and choppy surf along Gulf beaches throughout the weekend,” AccuWeather noted. “There might also be some rain in South Texas next week, depending on the moisture content of the system.”

Current situation of Rafael in the Gulf of Mexico

As predicted by at least one forecasting model earlier in the week, the hurricane center’s latest prediction indicates that Rafael will make a slight loop in the Gulf as it navigates until Monday.

Since 1963, several storms have created loops of various sizes as they were influenced by broader weather patterns. Rafael is currently being redirected by a ridge extending from the Atlantic into the Gulf, paired with a trough over the U.S. mainland, preventing earlier predictions of a landfall along the northern Gulf Coast.

In 1985, Hurricane Elena traveled through Cuba before appearing to head towards Florida; however, steering currents led it to loop back, ultimately making landfall between New Orleans and Mobile, Alabama.

Tracking the path of Hurricane Rafael

This forecast depicts the likely route of the storm’s center. It does not represent the storm’s full width or effects, and the storm’s center may deviate from the cone up to 33% of the time.