On Tuesday afternoon, a CEO from a Virginia-based market research firm stated that if undecided voters in Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Georgia continued to favor Trump, he would win the 2024 presidential election by a slim margin.

That’s exactly what happened. Many other voters, including those who weren’t registered Republicans, also leaned towards Trump, as noted by Resonate, a firm specializing in predictive consumer and voter insights.

Resonate claims it successfully predicted the winners of the 2016 and 2020 elections using advanced AI-driven modeling techniques. The company’s CEO, Byran Gernert, mentioned in a video on Tuesday that Trump would likely win this time by just two electoral votes.

The prediction for 2024 aligned more closely with trends than in 2016 and possibly exaggerated the impact of abortion rights on the election outcome for Democrats. Polls in competitive states had Trump slightly ahead recently, and even gambling odds indicated a high chance of his victory.

“Despite widespread claims to the contrary, our model accurately foretold the outcome for the third consecutive time,” remarked Ericka McCoy, Resonate’s chief marketing officer.

In the months leading up to the election, the company identified five significant trends:

1. Financial concerns lingered among Americans

Resonate tracked U.S. consumer sentiments bi-weekly from the pandemic’s onset through September 2024. They discovered that although extreme financial anxieties decreased, around two-thirds of Americans remained somewhat worried about the economy. Additionally, two out of five Americans were merely managing or facing financial struggles.

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“This concern has been evident throughout the Biden administration,” noted Daniel Scantlebury, Resonate’s chief data scientist. Many Americans appear to attribute blame for their economic situation to Biden and his team, a perception that likely influenced late-deciding voters at the polls.”

2. Immigration concerns remained a dominant issue for Republicans

Undecided voters began to favor Trump more on immigration when Vice President Kamala Harris entered the race in July. Harris and the Democrats struggled to change that trend among undecided voters in key states leading up to the election. According to Resonate, immigration was the primary concern for 67% of voters intending to support Trump in 2024.

3. Increased support for Trump among Latino voters

Unlike traditional polling methods that rely on a limited number of responses, Resonate employs AI-based models to analyze data from approximately 250 million individuals. Their extensive data set comprises over 4 trillion data points, resulting in comprehensive, anonymous profiles that support their predictions.

From their analysis, Resonate found that Latino voters were more inclined to support Trump in 2024 compared to 2020. Mexican Americans constituted the largest group among Latino voters, while Puerto Ricans showed the most significant increase in support for Trump.

A CNN exit poll surveying nearly 23,000 Americans revealed that 46% of Latino voters backed Trump, in contrast to just 13% of Black voters.

4. A smaller proportion of Republicans supported Trump’s victory

Resonate has not yet finalized its assessment of the 2024 election, but the financial hardships facing Americans seem to play a crucial role in Trump’s wider appeal. Just over half of Trump supporters in 2024 identified with the Republican party, as per Resonate’s findings.

“This data consistently suggests that people are yearning for change, particularly as they face increasing financial pressures,” McCoy observed.

5. The issue of abortion may have had less national impact

Resonate found that while abortion was a significant concern for many voters on Election Day, their data indicated that voters in states with total abortion bans were shifting leftward compared to 2020. Nevertheless, the abortion issue did not seem to significantly influence the overall election towards the Democrats.

“We observed that many people were worried about abortion access,” Scantlebury mentioned. “However, they managed to compartmentalize this issue through local initiatives and still supported Trump at the top of the ticket.”