Penn State’s Prime Position in the CFP Bracket: A Strategic Move Against Ohio State
Penn State has made a calculated strategic move in their playoff journey.
The Nittany Lions are effectively outmaneuvering others in the race for the playoffs while their competition gets caught up in simpler strategies.
After defeating Purdue decisively last Saturday, Penn State is now closer to securing a home first-round playoff game without having to compete in the Big Ten championship.
Should Ohio State win against Indiana next weekend, they will likely face Oregon again in the conference championship, raising the possibility of a third encounter in the College Football Playoff (CFP).
If Indiana pulls off an upset against the Buckeyes, they would advance to play Oregon for the conference title.
No matter the outcome, Penn State has the luxury of resting on championship weekend, analyzing game footage, and preparing to host a first-round playoff seed, all without having defeated a single team that finishes in the top 25 rankings.
It sounds quite favorable, right?
The Nittany Lions (9-1) were recently positioned as the No. 6 seed in the bracket according to the playoff committee, and they have a strong chance to remain there, a highly coveted position.
The No. 6 seed is set to host the No. 11 seed in the opening round, followed by a matchup against the No. 3 seed in the quarterfinals. This third seed will likely come from the ACC, Big 12, or Group of Five, as the Big Ten and SEC teams appear to vie for the top two seeding slots.
Conversely, if Ohio State defeats Indiana but falters against Oregon in the Big Ten championship, they could be assigned the fifth seed and potentially face the Ducks again in the CFP semifinals.
Imagine that: Ohio State’s reward for defeating Penn State in Happy Valley on November 2 isn’t quite what they hoped for.
Penn State’s opponents have managed a collective record of 48-53.
The selection committee tends to favor visual impressions, and they see the Nittany Lions performing at a high level—regardless of Purdue’s (1-9) poor performance.
“This was our most complete game as a team,” stated Penn State coach James Franklin after the commanding 49-10 victory over Purdue, “showing excellence in offense, defense, special teams, and overall team play.”
Some fans expressed frustration after Franklin’s recent loss to Ohio State, marking his 10th defeat in 11 matchups against them.
Consider that loss a mere sacrifice in the grand scheme, while the Nittany Lions strategically set themselves up for a strong spot in the playoff bracket.
Here’s a brief rundown of my top thoughts on the current state of college football:
Brian Kelly Faces Growing Pressure in Year 4 at LSU
The notion of LSU being a serious playoff contender has finally, and thankfully, been put to rest following their 27-16 defeat to Florida.
The Tigers’ comeback win against Ole Miss now seems like an outlier rather than a trend. LSU has suffered losses to Southern Cal and Florida, both of which have a combined 10-10 record, in addition to a humiliating defeat to Alabama at home and a second-half failure against Texas A&M. They nearly faced a fifth loss, requiring a comeback against a backup quarterback to win against South Carolina.
This season is shaping up to be a disaster for LSU. Brian Kelly’s third year with the program has turned into the worst thus far, especially with Jayden Daniels no longer available to mask ongoing issues.
LSU is struggling to establish a reliable run game, and their defense remains unreliable.
If I were to sum up the Tigers in one word? Soft.
Okay, how about two words? Really soft.
You catch my drift.
“It’s simply a matter of whether you want to put up a fight or not,” Kelly remarked after LSU’s third consecutive defeat.
It seems we have our response.
Kelly has been vocal on the sidelines and has hinted at taking a more hands-on approach in offensive play calling (a bit late for that strategy). The LSU fan base is certainly displeased, too.
A lucrative 10-year deal for Kelly was expected to bring more success to LSU than what we’re currently seeing. They’re not going to fire Kelly this year; he’s too costly to let go, and the need for a top-tier recruiting class, which includes a five-star quarterback prospect, remains crucial. The significance of this recruiting class cannot be overstated, especially with high-profile commitments coming in.
That class can’t arrive soon enough, as the pressure mounts for Kelly heading into Year 4.
Is Boise State on Track for a CFP Bye?
Despite Brigham Young’s disappointing 17-13 defeat to Kansas, the Cougars are still in contention to face (for now) Colorado in the Big 12 championship.
As Colorado (8-2) gains momentum, BYU’s recent loss has been building over the past weeks. Keep an eye on both BYU (9-1) and Colorado as they are ranked in the upcoming CFP update on Tuesday.
While it’s generally believed that the champions of the SEC, Big Ten, ACC, and Big 12 will earn automatic byes into the playoff quarterfinals, a spot is not guaranteed.
For example, if Boise State (9-1) is ranked above BYU and Colorado on Tuesday, it still has a chance for a first-round bye.
The selection committee could still place the Big 12 champion ahead of Boise State on selection day, regardless of Tuesday’s rankings. However, since Boise State lost to Oregon by only three points in Week 2, it deserves to be considered for a bye if it wins the Mountain West and ends the season at 12-1.
Notable Quote of the Week
Travis Hunter, Colorado’s two-way star, is among the leaders for the Heisman Trophy, and his performance in a 49-24 victory over Utah bolstered his candidacy. He recorded an interception and five receptions for 55 yards.
After making the interception, Hunter even posed like a Heisman contender.
If the voters remain undecided, Colorado coach Deion Sanders feels there’s little more he can do.
“I’m not going to lobby Heisman voters who are uncertain,” Sanders stated. “If they can’t recognize talent, that’s their issue. … The award should go to the best player in college football. I think that has been evident since Week 2.
“Therefore, we’re not advocating for anyone.”
By answering this way, Sanders skillfully communicated to Heisman voters while claiming not to do so.
Quick Thoughts
1. Tennessee fans, it’s okay to cheer for the Gators.
After a 31-17 defeat at Georgia, the Vols (8-2) will likely need some help to make the playoffs.
They have several ways to regain the committee’s favor. A strong win by Ohio State against Indiana would help, or if Notre Dame loses to either Army or USC, that could also boost Tennessee’s chances.
Another scenario that hasn’t received much attention: Mississippi will face Florida this Saturday. The Rebels (8-2) cannot afford to lose.
Imagine if Tennessee secures a playoff spot because Florida defeats Lane Kiffin, the Vols’ former coach who abandoned them for USC 17 years ago.
Tennessee’s fans usually despise Florida, but they may need to set that aside—if just temporarily—to get a boost into the playoffs.
2. Predicting the top 13 in Tuesday’s CFP rankings: 1. Oregon, 2. Ohio State, 3. Texas, 4. Penn State, 5. Indiana, 6. Notre Dame, 7. Miami, 8. Alabama, 9. Mississippi, 10. Georgia, 11. BYU, 12. Tennessee, 13. Boise State
3. My latest “Topp Rope” playoff forecast: Oregon (Big Ten), Alabama (SEC), Miami (ACC), Colorado (Big 12), Boise State (Group of Five), along with at-large selections Ole Miss, Texas, Georgia, Ohio State, Penn State, Indiana, and Notre Dame. The next in line are Tennessee, SMU, BYU, Texas A&M, Army, and Tulane.
