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HomeEnvironmentRevolutionizing Weather Forecasting: The Role of Hailstone Libraries in Predicting Extreme Events

Revolutionizing Weather Forecasting: The Role of Hailstone Libraries in Predicting Extreme Events

Researchers are currently examining and scanning samples to create a worldwide ‘hailstone library’. Through storm simulations that utilize 3-D models of actual hailstones—featuring various unusual shapes such as oblong, flat discs, or even spiky forms—they have discovered that these types of hail behave differently than traditional spherical shapes. The information gathered from this hail library could improve the accuracy of storm predictions.

A unique library at the University of Queensland, filled with hailstones instead of books, is aiding scientists in enhancing their understanding and forecasting of severe storms.

Dr. Joshua Soderholm, an Honorary Senior Research Fellow from UQ’s School of the Environment, along with lead researcher and PhD candidate Yuzhu Lin from Penn State in the United States, have observed that storm modeling results vary considerably when realistic hailstones are utilized.

Here are some key points:

  • Researchers are compiling and scanning samples for a global ‘hailstone library’.
  • Storm simulations that employ 3-D models of actual hailstones reveal differing behaviors compared to spherical hail.
  • Insights from the hail library could enhance storm forecasting accuracy.

“Most people picture hailstones as perfect spheres, similar to golf or cricket balls,” Dr. Soderholm noted.

“However, hail can take on an array of bizarre forms, from oblong shapes to flat discs or even spiked versions—no two hailstones are identical.

“Traditional scientific models of hail assume they are spherical, and we aimed to determine whether outcomes change when using non-spherical, naturally occurring hail shapes.”

Ms. Lin observed that the differences were substantial.

“Modeling more naturally shaped hail showed that they followed different paths through the storm, experienced varied growth patterns, and landed in distinct locations,” Ms. Lin explained.

“It also influenced the speed and the impact of the hail when it hit the ground.

“This approach to modeling is unprecedented, making it an exciting development in science.”

Dr. Soderholm emphasized that creating a ‘hailstone library’ is essential for further perfecting hailstorm simulations.

“Essentially, this serves as a dataset representing the diverse shapes of hailstones, which will help enhance the accuracy of weather modeling,” he stated.

“Our research analyzed data from 217 hail samples that were 3-D scanned and then sliced in half to better understand their formation process.

“This information is now part of an international library, as we aim to depict the shape and structure of hailstones more clearly.”

Dr. Soderholm highlighted the significant potential of the research.

“Currently, this modeling is aimed specifically at scientists studying storms, but our ultimate goal is to predict in real-time the size of hailstones and their landing locations,” he explained.

“More precise forecasts will, of course, help inform the public, allowing them to stay safe during hailstorms and reduce potential damage.

“Additionally, it could greatly benefit sectors such as insurance, agriculture, and solar energy, all of which are vulnerable to hail damage.”

The findings of this research were published in the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences.

Dr. Soderholm is also a Research Scientist with the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

Several hail samples for the UQ dataset were supplied by Higgins Storm Chasing.