Researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research have observed a growing number of regions worldwide that are successfully balancing economic expansion with reduced carbon emissions. Their latest study emphasizes the essential role of national climate initiatives in separating economic growth from CO2 emissions. An analysis spanning 30 years and including data from 1,500 regions revealed that 30 percent have achieved a decrease in carbon emissions while still enjoying economic prosperity. Although this upward trend signifies notable progress towards the objectives set by the Paris Climate Agreement, the authors warn that the current rate of decoupling is not quick enough to reach the global aim of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.
“Our research indicates that 30 percent of the regions with available data have succeeded in completely decoupling carbon emissions from their economic growth. Regions with higher incomes, a background of carbon-heavy industries, and a strong presence of the service and manufacturing sectors have seen particular success in cutting carbon emissions while maintaining economic growth,” states Anders Levermann, co-author and head of the “Complexity Science” department at PIK. “To stabilize global temperatures, achieving net-zero carbon emissions is essential. This means economies must separate their growth from CO2 emissions,” he adds.
Subnational climate initiatives also play a significant role in achieving decoupling: “For instance, European cities that have adopted climate mitigation strategies and regions that received more financial support for climate actions are typically showing higher decoupling rates,” remarks Maria Zioga, a scientist at PIK and the lead author of the study. “Europe notably outshines other regions globally, with many of its areas showing a consistent decoupling trend over the last two decades. Conversely, North America and Asia have experienced more inconsistent decoupling trends over the years, although there has been a positive trend in the last decade,” she continues.
Fewer than half of the regions are on track to reach net-zero by 2050
Unlike earlier studies that mainly focused on countries or specific cities, PIK researchers opted for a more detailed examination while keeping a global perspective. They analyzed the economic outputs of 1,500 subnational regions where the per capita gross regional product (GRP) was rising, which accounts for 85% of global emissions. By merging this with data on production-based carbon emission intensities over the past three decades, they identified significant global decoupling trends. Although the lack of global data on consumption-based emissions at a subnational level means the influence of international trade is not captured, the study still offers valuable insights into decoupling realities worldwide.
The researchers also projected the years when net-zero emissions could be reached in each region by examining historical decoupling trends and their effects on emissions. “Developed nations seem likely to meet these targets sooner than others, but overall trends indicate that most regions are falling short of the mid-century net-zero goal,” concludes co-author Max Kotz, a guest researcher at PIK during the study. “If the current decoupling rates persist, fewer than half of the subnational regions will reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. Consequently, all levels of government must enhance their efforts, and particularly, developed countries should increase their investments and support for the energy transition in global south nations to meet universal net-zero targets,” he emphasizes.
