Fossil Fuels: A Surge in CO2 Emissions in 2024

The projections for the 2024 Global Carbon Budget estimate that fossil carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions will amount to 37.4 billion tonnes, marking a 0.8% increase from 2023.

Although there is an urgent need to reduce these emissions to mitigate climate change, researchers report that there are “no signs” indicating that fossil CO₂ emissions have peaked.

When including emissions from land-use changes, such as deforestation, total CO₂ emissions for 2024 are expected to reach 41.6 billion tonnes, an increase from 40.6 billion tonnes the previous year.

Over the last decade, while fossil CO₂ emissions have grown, those from land-use changes have generally decreased, resulting in stable overall emissions during that time.

This year, emissions from both fossil fuels and land-use changes are predicted to rise, driven in part by drought conditions that are intensifying emissions from deforestation and forest fires during the 2023-2024 El Niño event.

With over 40 billion tonnes of CO₂ released annually, atmospheric CO₂ levels continue to climb, contributing to increasingly severe global warming.

The research involved collaboration among institutions including the University of Exeter, the University of East Anglia (UEA), CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Ludwig-Maximilian-University Munich, Alfred-Wegener-Institut, and over 80 other organizations globally.

“The effects of climate change are becoming more evident and severe, yet we still have no indication that the burning of fossil fuels has peaked,” stated Professor Pierre Friedlingstein from Exeter’s Global Systems Institute, who led the study.

“We are running out of time to achieve the Paris Agreement targets. World leaders gathering at COP29 must implement substantial and swift reductions in fossil fuel emissions to have a chance of keeping the temperature rise below 2°C above pre-industrial levels.”

Professor Corinne Le Quéré, Royal Society Research Professor at UEA’s School of Environmental Sciences, noted that “even with another rise in global emissions this year, the latest figures indicate significant climate action is underway, as renewable energy sources and electric vehicles are replacing fossil fuels, and decreased deforestation emissions over the last few decades have been validated for the first time.”

Dr. Glen Peters from the CICERO Center for International Climate Research in Oslo remarked, “There are noticeable signs of progress at the national level, suggesting that the peak in global fossil CO₂ emissions may be near, but reaching that peak remains challenging.”

“Climate action is a shared global challenge; while some nations are gradually reducing emissions, others continue to increase them.

“We need to expedite progress in all nations to ensure global emissions trend downward towards net zero.”

Professor Friedlingstein concluded: “Until we achieve net zero CO₂ emissions worldwide, global temperatures will keep rising, leading to more serious consequences.”

Other notable findings from the 2024 Global Carbon Budget include:

• Worldwide emissions from various fossil fuels in 2024 are expected to rise: coal (0.2%), oil (0.9%), gas (2.4%). These account for 41%, 32%, and 21% of global fossil CO₂ emissions, respectively. However, there is uncertainty in these projections, and coal emissions might decrease in 2024.
• China’s emissions, representing 32% of the global total, are projected to see a slight increase of 0.2%, though there is a chance for a decrease in emissions.
• The US, accounting for 13% of global emissions, is expected to see a decline of 0.6%.
• India’s emissions, which constitute 8% of the global total, are projected to climb by 4.6%.
• The European Union’s emissions (7% of the global total) are set to decrease by 3.8%.
• Emissions from the rest of the world (38% of the global total) are projected to rise by 1.1%.
• International shipping and aviation (3% of the global total, counted separately from national/regional totals) are expected to increase by 7.8% in 2024, although they will remain 3.5% below their pre-pandemic levels from 2019.
• Globally, emissions from land-use changes, like deforestation, have declined by 20% over the past decade but are anticipated to rise again in 2024.
• Permanent CO₂ removal initiatives, such as reforestation and afforestation, are offsetting about half of the emissions caused by permanent deforestation.
• Current technology-based methods for removing CO₂ (excluding nature-based solutions like reforestation) account for only about one-millionth of the CO₂ produced by fossil fuels.
• Global atmospheric CO₂ levels are projected to reach 422.5 parts per million in 2024, an increase of 2.8 parts per million from 2023, and 52% higher than pre-industrial numbers.
• The temporary El Niño climate phenomenon also contributed to a decrease in the carbon absorption capacity of terrestrial ecosystems in 2023, but this is expected to recover as El Niño dissipates by the second quarter of 2024.
• Emissions from fires in 2024 are reported to be above the average since the inception of satellite monitoring in 2003, primarily due to the extreme wildfires in Canada during 2023 (continuing into 2024) and severe drought in Brazil.
• Combined, land and ocean CO₂ sinks continue to absorb approximately half of total CO₂ emissions, despite being adversely affected by climate change.

How soon will we cross the 1.5°C warming threshold?

This analysis estimates the remaining “carbon budget” until the 1.5°C limit is consistently exceeded over multiple years, not just one year. At the current emission rates, the Global Carbon Budget team predicts a 50% likelihood that global warming will surpass the 1.5°C mark consistently within about six years. This projection carries significant uncertainties, mainly concerning additional warming caused by non-CO₂ emissions (such as CH₄, N₂O, aerosols). However, it is evident that the remaining carbon budget—and the time left to meet the 1.5°C goal and avert severe climate change impacts—is rapidly diminishing.

The Global Carbon Budget report, prepared by an international collaboration of over 120 scientists, offers an annual peer-reviewed update, following well-established methodologies in a transparent manner. The 2024 edition (the 19th annual report) will be published in the journal Earth System Science Data on November 13 as a pre-print, followed by a peer-reviewed version.