A recent study reveals that, contrary to what many believed, the differences in homicide rates across various regions in the US have diminished over the last few decades. Richard Boylan from Rice University in Houston, Texas, shares these insights in the open-access journal PLOS ONE on August 28, 2024.
A recent study reveals that, contrary to what many believed, the differences in homicide rates across various regions in the US have diminished over the last few decades. Richard Boylan from Rice University in Houston, Texas, shares these insights in the open-access journal PLOS ONE on August 28, 2024.
Since the 1970s, the divide in economic and social conditions among Americans in different areas has widened. Some researchers believe that regions facing economic and social hardships may experience increased levels of violent crime. For example, low-income neighborhoods, which often have smaller tax revenues, may not receive adequate police support, or a lack of job opportunities might push individuals toward criminal activities, where violence could play a significant role.
Nevertheless, there are few studies that have thoroughly explored the connections between geographic economic disparities and differing rates of violent crime. To fill this gap, Boylan evaluated data from the National Center for Health Statistics, comparing homicide rates across 741 commuting zones in the US, which include both urban and rural areas. These zones are defined as the regions where most residents live and work, with minimal commuting to other zones.
Boylan’s research indicates that, since the 1970s, the differences in homicide rates among US commuting zones have steadily lessened, even as economic and social inequalities have grown.
One possible explanation for these results, as noted by Boylan, is the reduction of disparities in policing, incarceration rates, and the representation of African Americans in populations across the US since the 1970s. He proposes that future studies could investigate whether these factors have influenced the decline in homicide rate disparities.
Alternatively, Boylan suggests that the negative impact of deteriorating social and economic situations on violence might have been countered by interventions from state, county, and federal law enforcement agencies, which ensured ongoing prosecution of violent crimes, particularly in instances where local police forces were dismantled in struggling cities.
In contrast to the findings regarding homicides, Boylan observes that geographic differences in life expectancies in the US have actually increased since the 1960s, likely due to state policies such as tobacco taxes and Medicaid expansions.
Dr. Boylan comments: “There is a perception that job losses in the Rust Belt have resulted in higher crime inequality. However, I provide empirical evidence showing that crime disparities among different regions have consistently decreased since the 1960s, which aligns with reductions in policing, incarceration disparities, and the composition of the African American population.”
