A recent study reveals that over half of the heat-related fatalities during the summer of 2022—specifically 56%—were linked to climate change caused by human activities. This research indicates that 38,154 out of 68,593 heat-related deaths in that summer could potentially have been avoided without the influence of anthropogenic warming.
Record-breaking heat during the summer of 2022 led to more than 68,000 deaths across Europe, as reported by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), which is funded by the ‘la Caixa’ Foundation. This latest study shows that 56% of these heat-related fatalities are associated with climate change driven by human actions. It suggests that 38,154 deaths of the 68,593 heat-related deaths in the summer of 2022 would not have happened if not for human-induced global warming.
To conduct the study, researchers used data on temperature and mortality from 35 European nations, applying epidemiological models to estimate the effects of heat on mortality in the summer of 2022. They analyzed global temperature data from 1880 to 2022 to measure temperature increases due to human activity in various regions. By adjusting for these increases, they estimated the temperatures that would have occurred without human warming, and then applied the initial mortality model to predict deaths that could have resulted from these adjusted temperatures.
Published in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, the findings indicated that the number of heat-related deaths per million inhabitants attributed to human warming was notably higher in southern regions compared to the rest of Europe.
The researchers observed that women and older individuals were particularly susceptible to heat-related fatalities attributed to climate change. Among those affected, 22,501 out of 37,983 deaths were women, while 23,881 out of 38,978 deaths were individuals aged 80 and older. This contrasts with men, who accounted for 14,026 out of 25,385 deaths, and younger people under 64, who accounted for 2,702 out of 5,565 deaths.
“This study highlights how global warming affects public health. The increase in heat-related mortality is evident across almost all examined countries, but not all groups are equally affected, with women and older adults being especially at risk from rising temperatures,” explains Thessa Beck, a researcher at ISGlobal and the lead author of the study.
The urgent need for effective adaptation and mitigation strategies
Europe’s temperatures are rising at twice the global average rate, which leads to amplified health challenges. Furthermore, the repercussions of climate change are not limited to extremely hot summers like in 2022. The study found that between 44% and 54% of heat-related summer deaths from 2015 to 2021 can also be traced back to global warming. This translates to an annual toll ranging from 19,000 to 28,000 deaths. Comparatively, the 2022 figures show a disturbing 40% rise in heat-related deaths, along with a two-thirds increase in fatalities attributed to human-induced warming.
“Our study urges European governments and national authorities to enhance the ambition and effectiveness of monitoring and preventive strategies, develop new adaptation approaches, and bolster global mitigation efforts. If decisive action is not taken, we will continue to see record high temperatures and an increase in heat-related deaths in the years ahead,” comments Joan Ballester Claramunt, Principal Investigator of the European Research Council (ERC) Consolidator Grant EARLY-ADAPT.
