Researchers are advocating for the implementation of a ‘resilience index’ as a measure of policy effectiveness, rather than the current emphasis on GDP. They assert that GDP fails to consider the broader impacts of development and does not reflect our capacity to operate within the Earth’s safe environmental limits.
Researchers are advocating for the introduction of a ‘resilience index’ to serve as a measure of policy effectiveness instead of the ongoing emphasis on GDP.
According to them, GDP overlooks the broader effects of development and does not provide insight into our ability to thrive within the planet’s ‘safe operating space.’
In a paper released today [15 November] in the journal One Earth, researchers from the University of Southampton, UCL, and the University of East Anglia advocate for the use of a resilience index to guide policy choices, asserting it is a more suitable metric for contemporary challenges than GDP.
“Resilience refers to the capacity of a system to prepare for, withstand, recover from, and adapt to disruptions so it can operate effectively,” states Professor Ian Townend, the leading author from the University of Southampton.
“This encourages a comprehensive perspective that incorporates both human and natural elements of intricate systems that span environmental, social, and economic realms.”
GDP was established to gauge progress during the Great Depression of the 1930s when economic recovery became critical. Since that time, it has evolved into a key indicator for many policies.
However, there is growing concern regarding our utilization of resources on a planet with finite capabilities, as well as the escalating effects of pollution, loss of biodiversity, and climate change.
This has led scientists to contemplate a ‘safe operating space,’ which ensures that humanity maintains an adequate social foundation while adhering to sustainable ecological limitations (also referred to as planetary boundaries).
“As we approach planetary boundaries, the capacity of an ecosystem to support various organisms declines,” explains Prof Townend. “Likewise, neglecting inequality, engaging in conflicts, or experiencing significant disasters detracts from our social foundations.”
The researchers suggest that a resilience index could assist policymakers in navigating within this safe operating space.
Professor Jon French, a co-author from UCL, emphasizes: “What we can measure often dictates what actions are taken, making it vital to offer a quantitative measure of resilience at local, national, and global levels.”
“Understandably, such a measure will involve value judgments. Rather than viewing this as a limitation, it allows for the diversity of perspectives within a society to be represented.”
“It also aids decision-makers in evaluating the inherent trade-offs involved when managing systems that encompass social, environmental, and economic aspects.”
In the paper, the researchers provide two examples illustrating how a resilience index could be applied both nationally and globally.
The University of Southampton has created a model to gauge the resilience of England’s coastal communities. This model enables decision-makers to prioritize various factors, including human health, economic setbacks, or habitat preservation.
This flexibility permits stakeholders, such as local governments, businesses, or communities, to shape how resilience is measured based on their unique concerns, ensuring a well-rounded approach to decisions that balances competing priorities.
They employed a similar approach on a global scale, utilizing existing datasets to evaluate the resilience of 132 countries from 1992 to 2015.
In this example, the global index indicated that while social metrics improved, there was a decline in biophysical resilience measures.
The team believes these models could improve upon or even replace traditional metrics, although they recommend further refinement is necessary.
“We need to urgently consider how to foster a global shift in perspective,” asserts Professor Robert Nicholls, another co-author from the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at the University of East Anglia.
“This requires us to move beyond the GDP focus towards indicators that address the challenges we face in fulfilling societal needs, while acknowledging that these needs are deeply interconnected with the requirements of all life on Earth.”
The paper Framing resilience to manage complex environmental systems has been published in One Earth and is available online.
This research was funded by the UK Climate Resilience Programme through UK Research and Innovation (UKRI).
