A recent study anticipates a significant increase in deaths caused by temperature extremes and pollution, predicting that the dangers from temperature will exceed those from pollution for one-fifth of the global population.
The threat posed by mortality linked to air pollution and extreme temperatures is considerable and is expected to worsen over the coming years. A study led by the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry revealed that, based on likely scenarios, deaths associated with air pollution and extreme weather could soar to 30 million annually by the century’s end. The research, utilizing sophisticated numerical simulations, uncovers a troubling pattern: fatalities from pollution are projected to grow five-fold, while those due to temperature extremes could surge seven-fold, posing a greater health risk than pollution for at least 20% of the global population.
The researchers conducted their analyses by examining projections spanning from 2000 to 2090, broken down into decade intervals. “In 2000, roughly 1.6 million individuals died each year because of severe temperatures, both hot and cold. By the century’s conclusion, this number is expected to escalate to 10.8 million, marking an increase of about seven times. For air pollution, the death toll in 2000 was around 4.1 million, set to rise to 19.5 million by the end of the century, a five-fold rise,” notes Dr. Andrea Pozzer, the group leader at the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry in Mainz and an adjunct associate professor at The Cyprus Institute in Nicosia, Cyprus.
The study also highlights significant regional variations in future mortality rates. South and East Asia are projected to see the most considerable increases, primarily due to an aging population, with air pollution remaining a critical factor. In contrast, developed areas, such as Western Europe, North America, Australasia, and the Asia Pacific region, are projected to witness higher deaths from extreme temperatures compared to those caused by pollution. This shift is already happening in certain countries within these regions, including the United States, England, France, Japan, and New Zealand. The gap is expected to widen, with temperature-related health risks surpassing those linked to pollution in countries of Central and Eastern Europe (such as Poland and Romania) as well as parts of South America (like Argentina and Chile).
By the century’s end, health threats from temperature extremes are anticipated to eclipse those from air pollution for one out of every five people worldwide, highlighting an urgent need for comprehensive strategies to address this escalating public health concern.
“Climate change transcends environmental issues; it poses a direct risk to public health,” remarks Andrea Pozzer. “These results emphasize the urgent need for swift and effective mitigation strategies to avert future fatalities,” adds Jean Sciare, director of the Climate and Atmosphere Research Center (CARE-C) at The Cyprus Institute and a key contributor to the study.
