A recent study predicts that hospital admissions due to diarrheal illnesses in Dhaka, Bangladesh, will rise by the year 2100 as a result of climate change, even if global temperature increases are kept below 2 degrees Celsius. This research, conducted by Farhana Haque and her team from University College London, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, and icddr,b, was published on September 26 in the open-access journal PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases.
As one of the most crowded cities in the world, Dhaka faces a significant challenge with diarrheal diseases. Although some research has explored the impact of weather on diarrhea rates in Bangladesh, there has been limited analysis on the future effects of climate change. Rising temperatures are expected to intensify this health concern by increasing heat and worsening water quality issues.
In their study, the researchers assessed the risks associated with diarrheal diseases across different global warming scenarios. They investigated how daily rainfall, humidity, and temperature in Dhaka influenced hospitalization rates for diarrhea, using data from approximately 3 million diarrhea cases treated at a major hospital in the city from 1981 to 2010. Their statistical analysis indicated that elevated daily temperatures significantly heightened the risk of diarrhea across all ages. If global temperatures rise by an average of 1.5 °C to 2 °C, hospitalizations from diarrheal diseases are projected to rise by 4.5% to 7.4% for all age groups by the century’s end. Children under the age of five could be particularly affected, with hospitalization rates expected to increase by 5.7% to 9.4%.
As part of the Paris Agreement—an international climate change treaty—nations have committed to limiting global warming to below 2°C. However, this new study shows that even if these goals are achieved, Dhaka will still see a significant rise in diarrhea-related hospitalizations. These findings highlight the critical need for enhanced preparedness in the city to prevent and manage diarrheal diseases.
The authors further emphasize: “Diarrhea hospitalizations will significantly rise in Dhaka, by 4.5% to 7.4% across all age groups by the 2100s, even with adherence to the global warming targets established by the Paris Agreement. This highlights the urgent need for effective management and prevention strategies for diarrheal diseases in the city.”
