A recent study conducted by researchers at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health used statistical modeling to predict the number of infant deaths that would have occurred if Texas had not implemented its strict abortion law. The study found that there was a significant increase in infant deaths in Texas following the ban on early pregnancy abortions in 2021, particularly among babies with congenital anomalies.
The Texas law that banned abortions after a fetal heartbeat could be detected at around five to six weeks came into effect on September 1, 2021. This law, known as Senate Bill 8 or S.B. 8, was considered one of the strictest abortion laws in the country at the time and did not make exceptions for congenital anomalies.
Researchers examined monthly death certificate data and discovered that between 2021 and 2022, infant deaths in Texas increased from 1,985 to 2,240, which is a year-over-year rise of 255 deaths. This represents a 12.9 percent increase in infant deaths in Texas.
A recent study found that there was a 1.8 percent increase in infant deaths in Texas, compared to the rest of the United States. The study focused on infants under 12 months old and was published in JAMA Pediatrics on June 24. These findings are significant as more states in the U.S. are implementing stricter abortion laws in response to the 2022 Supreme Court decision on Dobbs, which overturned Roe v. Wade and gave states more power over abortion policies. The study aimed to determine the potential impact of S.B. 8 by analyzing changes in the expected number of infant deaths in Texas from March to December.
The period from March to December 2022 saw the first wave of pregnancies affected by S.B. 8. Researchers believe that there were 216 additional infant deaths in Texas during this time frame that likely would not have occurred if the state’s abortion law had not been in place. This represents a 12.7% increase from the expected 1,697 infant deaths. There were a total of 1,913 deaths observed in Texas during this time period. An analysis of neonatal deaths within the first 28 days also showed similar patterns, with an estimated 145 excess deaths after the policy was implemented. These findings were not seen in other areas.
The latest research is believed to be the first of its kind to explore the potential impact of the Texas abortion ban on infant mortality rates in the state. It is also one of the first studies to provide evidence on the effects of recent abortion bans and restrictions on pre-viability. Previous studies have indicated that states with stricter abortion laws tend to have higher rates of infant deaths compared to those with more lenient laws. However, the authors emphasize that these earlier studies focused on less severe abortion restrictions and mainly established correlations. The significance of this study is underscored by the recent Supreme Court decision in June 2022 known as the “Dobbs” case.According to Alison Gemmill, PhD, a professor at the Bloomberg School, the study found a link between restrictive abortion laws and negative impacts on infant health, as well as the emotional and financial burden on families. The researchers used data from infant death certificates in Texas and 28 other states between 2018 and 2022 to conduct their analysis. They excluded the District of Columbia. The study also noted the reversal of abortion laws to the states and the subsequent limitations on reproductive rights in many states.
Some states had very few infant deaths from 2018 to 2022, but the exact numbers are not available in the current public data. The researchers chose March 2022 as the first group of babies affected by the Texas abortion policy, as these babies would have been around 10 to 14 weeks old when the law was implemented in September 2021. Before S.B. 8 was passed, people could have terminated a pregnancy if a fetal issue was detected before 20 weeks of pregnancy. The researchers analyzed the cause of death using death certificates from 2021 and 2022.
According to the data, researchers discovered that Texas experienced unusual rises in infant deaths caused by congenital anomalies, which is the most common cause of infant mortality. Between 2021 and 2022, the number of infant deaths related to congenital anomalies increased by 22.9 percent in Texas, while there was a 3.1 percent decrease in the rest of the United States during the same time period. Additionally, Texas also saw a significant increase in infant deaths from accidents, with a 21 percent rise compared to a one percent increase in the rest of the country.
The findings indicate that restrictive abortion policies in Texas may be impacting the ability of pregnant individuals to terminate pregnancies, potentially contributing to these alarming trends.”According to Suzanne Bell, PhD, MPH, assistant professor in the Department of Population, Family and Reproductive Health at the Bloomberg School, banning abortion for those with fetal abnormalities diagnosed later in pregnancy could result in higher infant mortality rates. This study highlights the significant impact that abortion bans can have on pregnant individuals and families who are unable to access this crucial reproductive health service,” said Bell, one of the lead authors of the study.
The researchers acknowledged that the data did not contain information on maternal and clinical characteristics of infant deaths, which limited their ability to investigate potential mechanisms.The researchers are currently investigating the effects of abortion bans on live births and infant mortality in Texas and other states that have banned abortion following the Dobbs ruling. This study is being supported by the Hopkins Population Center from the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (P2CHD042854). The focus is on understanding the impact of these bans across different socioeconomic groups.
