In California, where there are typically over 7,500 wildfires annually, some homeowners are ready with helmets and fire hoses.

Recent fires in Los Angeles highlight a concerning trend: wildfires are not only expanding in size but also becoming more destructive, often encroaching into suburban and urban areas, experts told YSL News.

“We are truly facing a new wildfire paradigm,” stated Faith Kearns, an expert in water and wildfires with the Global Futures Laboratory at Arizona State University.

Traditionally, people have separated structural fires from wildfires in remote areas, but this distinction is fading. Intense wildfires now reach neighborhoods, where flames can quickly leap from vehicles and buildings, Kearns noted. “This leads to a fire that is particularly challenging to combat.”

Since 2014, the annual average of land burned by wildfires in California has approximately doubled, as reported by the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection.

Excluding the most recent blazes, the department notes that since 2017:

• Six fires are among the top 10 for the number of structures destroyed
• Three hold spots in the top five deadliest fires since 1933
• All nine of the state’s largest fires have occurred

The rapid occurrence and extent of these fires have even surprised seasoned fire experts, Kearns commented. “It’s difficult to assign blame or expect people to have been better prepared.”

In Los Angeles County, the largest fires—the Palisades and Eaton fires—have consumed over 37,000 acres as of January 16.

At least 27 fatalities have been reported by the LA County Medical Examiner’s office. The fires have devastated more than 10,600 buildings and damaged over 1,400, which includes homes, businesses, and storage sheds, according to Cal Fire. The Eaton Fire has now become the fifth deadliest and the second most destructive in the state’s history, while the Palisades blaze ranks fourth in destruction.

While the focus is on Southern California this time, other extreme weather events, such as droughts and hurricanes, are intensifying throughout the U.S., driven by a mix of climate change and human activity.

“It’s important to understand that worsening wildfires are not natural disasters,” emphasized Jennifer Marlon, a senior research scientist at the Yale School of the Environment. “Earthquakes are natural disasters.”

“These wildfires occur in the context of hotter and drier conditions exacerbated by greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels,” she elaborated. “Many contributing factors exist, but we can no longer ignore the major role of climate change.”

The scale of these disasters has expanded due to more people living in areas that were once rural, raising both risks and potential losses, explained Stephen Strader, a hazards geographer and meteorologist at Villanova University.

This rise in disasters has increased insurance premiums and led some insurers to withdraw from markets in California and Florida.

‘A perfect fire storm’

On January 7, conditions in Los Angeles were nothing short of catastrophic.

It was “the worst possible scenario in terms of climatic factors,” said Char Miller, an environmental analysis and history professor at Pomona College in California and author of Burn Scars, released in September.

An exceptionally intense episode of Santa Ana winds, coupled with prolonged droughts, low humidity, and temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal, created the conditions for disaster, Miller detailed.

Typically, high-speed Santa Ana winds are confined to mountainous regions, but this time, those powerful winds spread throughout the area, explained Kristan Lund, a meteorologist from the National Weather Service in Los Angeles. Winds exceeding 80-100 mph were recorded in areas usually minimally affected by these winds, such as the foothills of Altadena and the San Gabriel Valley.

Moreover, the drought and heat followed two wet years that allowed abundant plant growth in the nearby chaparral and coastal sage scrub, noted Glen MacDonald, a geography professor at UCLA. That extra vegetation dried out, making it highly flammable.

When the fierce winds hit, all it took was a spark in a vulnerable spot, MacDonald remarked, resulting in “a perfect fire storm” that propelled the fire into the Palisades. The flames surged westward until reaching the Pacific Ocean.

Combatting wildfires in urban areas

Residents of suburban neighborhoods often believe they are safe from wildfires due to their landscaped yards, sidewalks, and gardens, MacDonald explained. However, homes and lawns can ignite, leading to the spread of embers.

Palm trees lining streets can act as “fire starters,” he stated. “Once fire enters those areas, it becomes exceedingly difficult to manage.”

During a critical moment in the firefighting efforts in LA, strong winds halted aerial support, which is typically essential for combating wildland fires using large buckets of water and retardants.

With high winds, dry conditions, and challenging geography, there is “very little anyone can do in those circumstances, especially when aerial support is initially removed,” MacDonald said. “The firefighters did an incredible job, but under these conditions, I’m not sure additional resources could have made much difference.”

Urban firefighting departments and infrastructure with water tanks and hydrants “are not built to handle this scale of wildfire,” particularly when trying to pump water uphill, Kearns pointed out. They are designed for a single house fire, or fires in just a few buildings, not for hundreds of homes under severe wind conditions.

In a standard house fire, a fire department may deploy five trucks, Miller noted. “For a single house, that’s efficient. But if there are 100 homes involved, you need 500 trucks. In the case of the Palisades fire with 1,000 structures affected, California simply does not have enough fire engines available.”

‘This is trouble’

Climate change acts as a threat multiplier, but it’s not the only factor, Kearns emphasized. “Even without climate change, California would still face fire challenges.”

Heather Alexander, an associate professor of forest ecology at Auburn University in Alabama, drove through Southern California during the summer and was struck by the “scrubby, highly flammable” plant life surrounding her.

Given the homes, power lines, and dry, windy weather, she thought, “This is serious.”

The hazardous conditions foster “unprecedented opportunities for extreme fire behavior that is essentially uncontrollable and cannot be effectively fought,” commented Tamara Wall, a research professor at the Desert Research Institute. “The situation exceeds our current capabilities.”

Challenging topography, particularly in areas like the Palisades, often contributes to severe fire behavior, said Miller and others close friends, who lost their home, lived on a steep road that was so narrow and overgrown with flammable chaparral and invasive eucalyptus that it was challenging to navigate a car, let alone a fire truck, he noted.

The breathtaking views from the hillsides help explain why people choose to build in certain locations. “Look at the scenery in their back yards. Nature surrounds them. I completely understand, but now we’re facing the consequences,” he stated.

Political ideologies that prioritize growth have led to the construction of more homes “in areas where wildfires are inevitable,” he explained. The reality of human expansion brings the risk of fire through electrical lines, vehicles, and barbecue grills.

‘Beneficial fires’ can help prevent larger wildfires

For centuries, fires ignited by Indigenous peoples and natural occurrences swept through landscapes every few years, which helped decrease the amount of combustible material, referred to as “fuel,” available for wildfires. These “beneficial fires” organized the growth of crops, plants, and wildlife.

A century of fire suppression has resulted in landscapes that are highly susceptible to severe wildfires, Alexander pointed out. She researches the advantages of “prescribed” fires, which are conducted under specific pre-planned circumstances, imitating those ancient fires. Conducting such burns to lessen the buildup of underbrush that could ignite wildfires can mitigate fire intensity and safeguard surrounding areas.

“There’s an ongoing effort to increase prescribed burning in California and other western states; however, it’s significantly more complex,” she remarked. As more homes emerge in rural locations, wildland managers encounter challenges, including complaints from local residents about the fear of fires and the irritating smoke from controlled burns.

However, reintegrating these original fire practices is essential for future planning, according to Alexander. It’s more advantageous to have controlled burns “under favorable wind and humidity conditions” rather than the uncontrolled fires seen in Los Angeles.

‘A complex challenge’

Since the fires in LA began, Wall and other experts have listened with exasperation as affected residents and government officials assign blame.

“People have lost their homes and all their belongings,” Wall remarked. “It’s a traumatic experience, and it’s natural to want to pinpoint blame … Unfortunately, I suspect some are exploiting this situation for political reasons.”

However, unraveling the intricate issues that have developed over the years requires new policies and political approaches, the experts explained to YSL News.

Going forward will be “extremely challenging” in addressing various difficult questions, such as determining who is responsible for ensuring adequate water pressure during the next fire, and how homeowners can rebuild in a way that is more resistant to fire, Kearns stated.

In the coming months, it will be essential to conduct a calm and objective analysis of what went wrong, what went well, and how improvements can be made for the future, Wall emphasized. “Because unfortunately, there will be a next time. This isn’t a one-off situation.”

Dinah Voyles Pulver reports on climate change and environmental issues. She has covered wildfires since the Florida firestorm of 1998. Connect with her @dinahvp on Bluesky or X.