Many college football analysts have noted that this year’s playoff lacks a standout team, unlike the dominant squads seen in 2019 with LSU or 2020 with Alabama, though Ohio State is starting to look more like those historic powerhouses.

Now what about the 2023 Michigan team? Is there another team out there that mirrors the Wolverines? A squad that went unbeaten last season but isn’t receiving the same accolades as recent SEC champions? (And let’s face it, some of the controversy surrounding Michigan might play into that.)

Look within the Big Ten for a potential copycat of the Michigan method.

Enter Penn State.

Let’s examine the Nittany Lions:

∎ A powerful defense filled with players who disrupt the opposition and invade the backfield.

∎ Two outstanding running backs, both exceptional in their own right.

∎ A passing game that showcases a tight end with NFL potential.

Does this sound familiar? Should I go on? Alright, here we go.

∎ An experienced quarterback enjoying his most successful season.

∎ A reliable offensive line.

∎ Effectiveness in the red zone.

Does this ring any bells? It’s reminiscent of the characteristics of 2023 Michigan.

Penn State Could Emulate Michigan If James Franklin Overcomes Past Setbacks

One significant difference is that Michigan maintained an undefeated record, whereas Penn State suffered defeats against Ohio State and Oregon.

Another distinction? Penn State isn’t employing anyone underhanded to steal signals from opponents.

However, the lack of a Connor Stalions doesn’t affect Penn State as much as the presence of James Franklin, whose history of underperforming in crucial games casts doubt on the Nittany Lions’ chances.

Why do sportsbooks view Penn State as having the least chance of winning the national title? Franklin’s dismal track record in high-stakes games, such as the upcoming Orange Bowl against Notre Dame, likely plays a role.

Ohio State fans often complain about Ryan Day’s struggles, but Day’s issues mainly revolve around one opponent. He struggles against Michigan, who won’t be appearing in this playoff.

Without their nemesis, Day and the Buckeyes look poised for success in the postseason. Although Day has yet to face Texas coach Steve Sarkisian, he boasts an 8-0 record against the other two coaches in the playoff bracket—Marcus Freeman of Notre Dame and Franklin.

In their last meeting, Day triumphed over Franklin for the sixth time in a row this past November, with the Buckeyes securing a 20-13 victory at Penn State. This match began with the Nittany Lions leading by ten but ended with Franklin arguing with a fan as he left the field.

Even though Penn State has performed well in its initial playoff games, those victories haven’t changed the narrative surrounding Franklin’s struggles in high-pressure situations. SMU isn’t on par with Notre Dame, nor does Boise State have the same pedigree.

Analysis of Penn State’s playoff wins suggests similarities to Michigan.

“It’s a highly skilled, disciplined, and tough football team,” said Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman about Penn State. “They have a very inventive offense that uses a variety of personnel and formations, which will demand meticulous discipline from the opposition.”

This isn’t just coach-speak; Freeman aptly characterized Penn State, and playing against Franklin’s lineup will be akin to facing a mirror for Notre Dame.

Notre Dame is the Kind of Opponent That Trougles James Franklin

Here’s the thing no opposing coach would openly admit: Franklin tends to struggle against teams with Notre Dame’s profile. Under pressure, he transforms from a fierce competitor into someone overly cautious. His performance against top-five teams and significant rivals is often disappointing.

Penn State supporters are likely all too familiar with this, but for others, consider Franklin’s overall record against formidable foes:

vs. Ohio State: 1-10

vs. Michigan: 3-7

vs. Michigan State: 5-5

vs. SEC opponents: 2-4

Franklin avoided humiliation by convincingly defeating SMU and Boise State. He would gain more respect by prevailing against Notre Dame.

Putting Trust in Penn State for the Orange Bowl Requires Trust in James Franklin

Jim Harbaugh had a reputation for failing in postseason play before finally securing a national championship. It’s a law of sports: until you win the big one, you don’t truly succeed. Harbaugh never clinched a College Football Playoff victory until he pulled off a stunning run last season, one that continued until he departed for the NFL.

Currently, Kirby Smart and Dabo Swinney are the only active coaches with national championships on their resumes, so regardless of who emerges victorious on January 20 in Atlanta, it will signal a coach capturing their first championship.

Could Franklin be that coach? The elements are there to suggest that he could. While the Nittany Lions may not be the strongest contender left in the tournament—looking at the Buckeyes—they certainly share similarities with the 2023 Michigan team, a team poised to compete fiercely in this playoff.

In the past, I described Penn State as the “light beer” equivalent of 2023 Michigan, but there have been numerous instances this season where the Nittany Lions have played at a high level.

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In a way similar to a rich brew, Penn State’s standout tight end Tyler Warren, along with defensive powerhouses Abdul Carter and Kobe King, are anything but mediocre.

To put it differently, with this Penn State squad, Harbaugh could clinch a national championship.

I have a strong appreciation for the team; however, my confidence in the coach is not fully there.