A recent study examined the heat wave that affected Texas and Louisiana in 2023 to develop a method for identifying whether specific weather events are linked to climate change.
Can we determine if extreme weather events are caused by climate change? A recent study utilized the 2023 heat wave in Texas and Louisiana to create a framework for assessing the relationship between specific weather events and climate change.
According to Carl Schreck, a senior research scientist at North Carolina State University’s North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies (NCICS), “Our primary aim with this project is to inform communities impacted by extreme weather about the likelihood of experiencing similar events in the future. Providing them with timely information will enable better decisions regarding infrastructure resilience or reconstruction following a weather event.”
Schreck, along with a group of researchers from NC State, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the University of Colorado, Boulder, and Princeton University, aimed to establish a systematic approach for assessing extreme weather occurrences.
The focus of this study was the extreme heat wave that struck Texas and Louisiana in 2023, notable for its extended duration that spanned nearly the entire summer, contrasting with typical heat waves that usually last three to seven days.
“Another intriguing aspect of this event is that it transpired within what’s known as the daytime warming hole,” Schreck explains. “This ‘warming hole’ is an area in the central U.S. where temperature increases have not matched the rates observed elsewhere, due in part to higher rainfall preventing afternoon temperatures from rising significantly.”
To assess whether the heat wave was an outlier or indicative of a new trend, the scientists employed a two-step methodology. Initially, they analyzed century-long historical data from U.S. heat monitoring stations to evaluate how 2023 compared in terms of unusualness. They then cross-referenced this information with the frequency of heat waves generated from both past and current predictive computer models.
By comparing these predictive models, the researchers can ascertain if climate change is influencing the event.
“A similar drought would not have reached such high temperatures 50 years ago,” Schreck points out. “This indicates that the heat wave is directly associated with climate change, and we can anticipate even hotter heat waves in the future.”
With these methods now in place, the researchers intend to apply them to analyze the impact of climate change on forthcoming heat waves.
This research is published in Environmental Research: Climate and received support from NOAA’s Climate Program Office and the U.S. Department of Commerce. Co-authors include David Coates and John Uehling, research associates at NCICS, along with NC State research professors Xiangdong Zhang and Kenneth Kunkel. Additional co-authors are David R. Easterling and Russell S. Vose from NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information, Joseph J. Barsugli from the University of Colorado Boulder, Andrew Hoell from NOAA/Physical Science Laboratory, Nathaniel C. Johnson from NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, and Zachary M. Labe from Princeton University.
