“It’s nice,” President-elect Donald Trump remarked in July while campaigning, “to have a good relationship with someone who possesses many nuclear weapons.”

He referred to Kim Jong Un, the leader of North Korea, who has maintained control through isolation, indoctrination, and oppression, leading to widespread famine as reported by the United Nations.

“He’d like me to come back, too,” Trump commented about Kim. “I think he misses me, to be honest.”

Younger males, often dubbed the bro vote, played a significant role in Trump’s rise to the presidency, as noted by pollsters and political researchers, largely due to their worries regarding immigration, job opportunities, multiculturalism, and perceived threats to traditional family structures and masculinity.

Trump also has “bros” internationally—older leaders who might expect him, say foreign affairs experts, to shift U.S. foreign policy from global partnerships to their populist, and sometimes authoritarian, agendas during his second term.

Trump’s return to the White House: What the world thinks and its implications

“The best word to describe what we might expect from Trump 2.0 is ‘transactional,'” stated Charles Kupchan, an international affairs professor at Georgetown University.

“Trump will likely try to resolve the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, necessitating tough dialogues with both democratic and non-democratic leaders.”

During his initial term, Trump relied on personal connections and flattery to promote his America-first policy. He often faced criticism for openly praising autocrats and dictators.

There was Kim, who Trump once claimed he had “fallen in love” with, but he also acknowledged other leaders.

Trump referred to Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose opposition figures often die under mysterious circumstances, as a “genius.” He called Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, blamed by the CIA for the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, a “great guy.” He even characterized Hungary’s authoritarian leader Viktor Orban as “one of the most respected men.”

In understanding Trump, it is crucial to separate his rhetorical policies from actual actions, according to Kupchan. Here’s a look at leaders to monitor for signs of potential new or revived Trump friendships, the likelihood of these relationships, and the potential consequences.

Kim Jong Un’s isolated regime in North Korea

Bromance potential: Medium-to-low.

What the U.S. desires: Denuclearization in North Korea. Approximately 28,500 American troops are currently stationed in South Korea. Experts believe that North Korea’s ballistic missiles could potentially reach the U.S. mainland.

Trump’s previous approach: The president-elect transitioned from threatening Kim with “fire and fury” regarding North Korea’s missile and nuclear developments to attending extravagant summits, even calling Kim his pen pal. Kim sought sanctions relief in exchange for denuclearization, but negotiations reached a deadlock.

Edward Howell, an expert on North Korea at the University of Oxford, indicated that new Trump-Kim discussions might be possible, but North Korea has changed since Trump’s last term.

“Kim’s nuclear and missile capabilities have significantly advanced,” he stated, “and Kim isn’t even feigning interest in discussions with the U.S. and South Korea.”

‘Make Argentina Great Again’ with Javier Milei

Bromance potential: Very high.

What the U.S. seeks: Traditional U.S. engagement in Argentina has revolved around trade, human rights, and fighting terrorism. With President Javier Milei, Trump might find a like-minded ally keen on drastically reducing government functions and potentially dismantling entire agencies.

Argentina is working on policies related to climate change, LGBTIQ+ rights, migrant support, and employee protections. The country is seeking assistance from the United States to secure a new financial aid package from the International Monetary Fund.

Trump’s Influence: When Javier Milei, a libertarian economist with a distrustful stance towards the government, met Donald Trump at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Washington, D.C., in February, the two embraced enthusiastically. In tribute to Trump, Milei ran with the campaign slogan “Make Argentina Great Again.”

Milei has mirrored Trump in his viewpoints on immigration and social aspects. Additionally, tech mogul Elon Musk, who Trump appointed to help lead the new Department of Government Efficiency, has found common ground with Milei regarding the necessity to “liberate markets.” This week, Milei is anticipated to attend a CPAC event at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach, Florida, where Musk may also show up.

“You are my favorite president,” Trump reportedly said to Milei during a phone conversation after Trump’s election win, according to an aide of Milei who shared this on social media. The alignment between Trump and Milei is evident.

Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia and a Consulate Controversy

Friendship Potential: Medium.

What the U.S. Seeks: Historically, the U.S. has maintained an oil-for-security relationship with Saudi Arabia. However, this informal agreement has weakened over time as American dependence on foreign energy supplies has decreased. The Biden administration is aiming to establish a new formal defense agreement with Saudi Arabia. This anticipated agreement is seen as a piece of a larger strategy to stabilize chaotic regional issues in the Middle East.

The proposal includes the U.S. offering security guarantees and support for a civilian nuclear program in exchange for Saudi Arabia normalizing relations with Israel, which could potentially pave the way for progress concerning a future Palestinian state.

Trump’s History: During Trump’s initial term, he had a warm relationship with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (often referred to as MBS). Trump’s first overseas trip in 2017 was to Saudi Arabia, featuring grand ceremonies and a multi-billion-dollar arms deal.

In 2018, following the brutal murder and dismemberment of journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, Trump appeared to downplay the incident, according to some critics. Yet, MBS might approach Trump with more caution this time due to Trump’s hints at allowing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu considerable freedom in dealing with offensives against Hamas and Hezbollah in light of the events following the October 7, 2023, attacks on Israel. “Do what you have to do,” Trump allegedly advised Netanyahu during a call in October.

MBS has condemned Israeli actions in Gaza, calling them “collective genocide.” Nevertheless, Ali al-Ahmed, a Saudi academic and dissident residing in the U.S., suggests that Trump and MBS still have strong personal rapport, both having a penchant for “massive” deals, and they could potentially navigate their disagreements. “Moreover, Saudis traditionally prefer a Republican president,” he added.

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin: A Complicated Relationship with Disinformation

Friendship Potential: It’s complicated.

What the U.S. Wants: Trump emphasizes the need for dialogue between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to find a resolution to Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, which has lasted nearly three years. Trump claims he could achieve this in “a day,” although he has not provided details on how this would happen. Both Ukraine and many in the international community remain doubtful, especially regarding the idea of trusting Putin.

In the past twenty years, Putin has tightened his control over Russia by reshaping its judiciary, media, and other institutions to uphold his singular authority. He has invested heavily in military capabilities and has had numerous opposition politicians and journalists imprisoned, exiled, or even assassinated. Additionally, he amended the Russian constitution to allow him to remain in power until 2036, or possibly beyond.

Putin has witnessed five U.S. presidents come and go—Trump 2.0 would be his sixth, while Biden marks the fifth. Over these years, the U.S.-Russia relationship has seen both collaboration and significant tension.

Regarding areas like trade, nuclear arms, missile treaties, combating terrorism, and more, there have been ongoing discussions. However, significant differences exist concerning human rights issues, the conflicts in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria, adherence to the rule of law, and Russia’s apparent, if not outright, support for cybercriminals, including meddling in U.S. elections. Furthermore, there’s contention over the liberties pertaining to countries such as Ukraine and Georgia, which emerged following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, as they strive to shape their own cultural and ideological paths.

Trump’s previous encounters: How much time do we have? The precise nature of the relationship between Trump and Putin remains ambiguous. Both leaders claim to have met in person for the first time during a 2017 international summit in Germany. Nevertheless, Trump also stated that he interacted with Putin during a 2013 trip to Moscow for the Miss Universe pageant.

Several Russian officials and members of Trump’s campaign and administration engaged in multiple informal meetings. Over the years, President Joe Biden has labeled Putin a “killer” and accused him of attempting to influence U.S. elections to favor Trump. In contrast, Trump has often expressed admiration and praise for Putin. This sentiment is reciprocated by Putin, who has a history as a former KGB agent known for spreading misinformation and propaganda regarding Trump.

What implications does this have for the future peace in Ukraine, and more broadly, what can we anticipate regarding the Trump-Putin geopolitical dynamics on social media, during summits, and at other platforms? Stay tuned.

Hungary’s nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orban

Potential closer ties: High.

U.S. objectives: The Biden administration has criticized Hungary’s Nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orban for his government’s actions perceived as undermining judicial independence and freedom of the press. Orban faces worldwide rebuke for his democratic principles, stance on minority rights, and accusations of being overly sympathetic to Russia in a sensitive region. He has attempted to obstruct or dilute European Union support and military aid for Ukraine, despite Hungary being an EU member. Orban is known as Europe’s most aggressive opponent of immigration, a view that may align with Trump’s position.

Trump’s prior engagements: Orban was among the few leaders in the EU to enthusiastically endorse both of Trump’s presidential bids. Leading up to the election, he stated he would celebrate Trump’s victory with “bottles of champagne.” While in Kyrgyzstan when Trump won, local reports indicate he switched to vodka, cheerfully acknowledging Trump’s win. Trump has praised Orban, calling him the exemplary leader the world needs: “fantastic,” “respected,” and strong. Their views on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine align closely, suggesting they are kindred spirits.

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, an emerging global force

Potential for closer relations: “Howdy Modi.”

What the U.S. is looking to achieve: India is the largest democracy and the most populous nation globally. Over the years, cooperation between the U.S. and India has strengthened, particularly in defense, trade, and technology sectors. Many foreign policy analysts and Washington officials believe that India could serve as a strategic partner for the U.S. in curbing China’s growing economic and military influence. However, PM Modi has faced accusations of human rights violations and of promoting a brand of Hindu nationalism that discriminates against marginalized communities, particularly Muslims. In 2005, Modi, then serving as Gujarat’s Chief Minister, was denied a visa to the U.S. due to his record on religious freedom.

Trump’s previous interactions: Despite the controversies, Trump has shown no signs of concern. In 2019, he participated in a “Howdy, Modi” event at Houston’s NRG Stadium that hosted thousands of Indian-Americans. Trump referred to Modi as “my friend, a friend of India” and noted the significant positive impact he has made. During Trump’s visit to India a year later, Modi organized a grand event at the largest cricket stadium in the world.

In a congratulatory message to Trump on social media, Modi shared pictures of them hugging, smiling, and holding hands. India’s External Affairs Minister, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, mentioned shortly after that many countries are now anxious about the U.S., admitting, “Let’s be honest about that.” India has not been one of them.” he stated.

The Trump-Modi greetings have dual meanings.

Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel: ‘The comeback of history’

Potential for a close relationship: Considerable. Look at Trump Heights.

What the U.S. desires: The return of the remaining hostages taken by Hamas, a group backed by Iran, during its assault on Israel on October 7, and a de-escalation of the ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon that followed.

The U.S. has warned of potential sanctions against Israel, including withholding military supplies, unless it takes significant steps to ease the humanitarian crisis affecting around 1.9 million displaced Palestinians in Gaza, which makes up about 90% of its total population, as reported by the United Nations. Local authorities in Gaza, governed by Hamas, estimate that over 43,000 Palestinians have died. Israel faces allegations of committing war crimes in its actions in Gaza.

Trump’s previous actions on Israel: Every recent U.S. president has been solidly pro-Israel, emphasizing shared history and values, alongside a firm commitment to Israel’s security. Trump particularly took bold steps during his first term that challenged long-held beliefs of U.S. foreign policy regarding Israel.

He moved the U.S. Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, a city Palestinians wish to be part of their future capital. He also withdrew from a nuclear agreement between Iran and world powers. Even though many Western nations consider Iran’s nuclear activities a major threat, for Israel, Iran represents an existential threat due to its geographical closeness and its leaders’ threats against Israel.

Israel had been firmly against this nuclear agreement.

Trump further disregarded the expansion of Jewish settlements in Palestinian-claimed territories and indicated the U.S. would alter its longstanding position, established in 1978, regarding Israeli settlements in the West Bank— no longer viewing them as contrary to international law.

He also shut down the Palestinian Liberation Organization’s representative office in Washington and halted U.S. funding for groups engaged in Palestinian matters. Furthermore, he facilitated the normalization of relations between Israel and several Arab nations through the Abraham Accords, effectively sidelining the Palestinian issue.

After the news of Trump’s recent electoral win, Netanyahu hailed it as “history’s greatest comeback.” In a discussion with Trump, Netanyahu remarked, “We align on the Iranian threat in all aspects, as well as the potential opportunities for peace and beyond for Israel.”

In a significant move that may indicate Trump’s stance towards Netanyahu and Israel in general, he nominated two diplomats for the region who have minimal experience regarding its policies. Mike Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor known for his comment that “there’s really no such thing as a Palestinian,” has been chosen as the next U.S. ambassador to Israel. Additionally, Steven Witkoff, a real estate developer and occasional golf partner of Trump, will serve as the Middle East envoy for the incoming administration.

‘Don’t ask me. Ask China’s Xi Jinping’

Potential for a close relationship: Who ignited COVID?

What the U.S. desires: The relationship between the U.S. and China is intricate, touching on trade, climate issues, and the critical matter of Taiwan. Taiwan is a self-governing territory that Beijing insists is part of its country and aims to unify politically with the mainland. The U.S. has pledged military support should China attempt to annex Taiwan by force. Trump seems primarily focused on imposing tariffs concerning China. “If you go into Taiwan, I’m sorry to say, but I’m going to levy a 150% to 200% tax,” Trump stated during his campaign.

Trump’s past interactions with China: Trump has claimed to have a good rapport with Xi Jinping, stating, “I had a very strong relationship with him,” in an interview with The Wall Street Journal’s Editorial Board in October. “He was quite good, I don’t want to label him as a friend, but we got along very well.” Trump characterized Xi as a “very formidable individual.” However, during the COVID-19 crisis, Trump frequently sought to assign blame to China for the outbreak and insisted that China should face consequences for its management of the pandemic.

“Don’t ask me. Ask China,” Trump replied during a press conference when questioned by a reporter about why he often claimed the U.S. was outperforming other nations in COVID testing.

During his first term, Trump implemented tariffs on a range of Chinese goods, with rates varying from 10% to 25%.

He pointed to concerns like China’s supposed intellectual property theft and unfair trade practices as motivations for his actions. He has suggested imposing new tariffs on Chinese imports that could be as high as 60% on all products coming into the U.S. from China.

“The future of the relationship between the U.S. and China is uncertain, possibly even for Donald Trump himself. Trump’s perspectives on China are extensive and often inconsistent,” remarked Evan Medeiros, a former member of the U.S. National Security Council from 2009-2015 and currently an adviser at The Asia Group consulting firm, in a recent piece.

“There’s a Trump who admires Xi Jinping and seeks substantial agreements with powerful leaders. Then there’s the Trump who sees China as a strategic adversary feeling betrayed over issues like Covid-19 and the trade deal. He understands that taking a hard line against China usually resonates well with voters. We could see both the dealmaker and the competitor sides of Trump emerging.”

Xi Jinping, on his part, mentioned in his message to Trump following the election that China and the U.S. need to “cooperate amicably.”