A recent study has revealed significant decreases in the populations of African elephants, marking the first extensive analysis of population survey data across the continent. Over the course of 53 years, forest elephant numbers dropped by an average of 90%, while savanna elephant populations declined by roughly 70%.
Dramatic reductions in African elephant populations are primarily due to habitat destruction and poaching. However, accurately tracking their numbers and monitoring changes continent-wide is a complex challenge. This new study analyzes 53 years of survey data, illustrating widespread declines in both species of African elephants.
Between 1964 and 2016, the average population of forest elephants decreased by 90%, while savanna elephants experienced an average reduction of 70%. Overall, the populations declined by an average of 77%. This research brought together survey data from 475 locations across 37 countries and represents the most thorough evaluation of African elephants to date.
The declines were not consistent throughout the continent; some populations vanished entirely, while others showed rapid growth. Professor George Wittemyer from Colorado State University, who played a key role in the study and chairs the scientific board of Save the Elephants, noted that finding instances where elephant populations remain stable or are even growing could greatly assist conservation efforts.
“The context and solutions vary at different sites, but there are examples of successful management and protection of these populations,” Wittemyer explained. “Having contextually relevant models for elephant conservation is crucial, and we have many effective examples in various locations.”
This study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, focused on modeling elephant density at specific sites instead of total numbers, since the surveyed areas varied over time in many locations. A distinct trend showing shrinking populations was identified.
“This paper highlights the extent and prevalence of the declines across the continent,” Wittemyer said. “It underscores the alarming reality that even such large and noticeable creatures as elephants can quickly vanish.”
Complex Calculations
Although elephants are large and easily visible, counting them is a complicated and resource-demanding task. Surveys of savanna elephants are conducted from planes with spotters, while forest elephants are counted on foot. Drones, which could potentially assist, are not yet able to conduct long flights over remote areas required for effective surveying, and the processing of drone images remains resource intensive.
African countries vary widely in size – more than three times that of the United States – and each nation has its own wildlife management practices and political systems. Some regions conduct surveys regularly, while others do not at all. The existing surveys were completed with meticulous logistical planning and investment of resources.
“We were pleased to consolidate all of this data and make the most of the hard work and dedication that went into its collection,” Wittemyer said.
As elephant populations diminished, some protected areas became smaller and the boundaries for surveys changed. To overcome these challenges associated with shrinking survey areas and missing data, the authors of the study had to use locations with reliable information to estimate population changes in nearby regions with less data. They assessed site-specific trends to get an overall picture of trends across locations.
“The strength of our method lies in our ability to deduce these trends, even in regions with very limited data, which allows for comparison across each survey site,” remarked co-author Charles Edwards, a research scientist with CEscape consultancy services. “Understanding the variations in trends across a species’ range is arguably more crucial for their conservation than just knowing the overall change in population numbers, which may only reflect changes in the largest groups.”
“This isn’t merely a count of the remaining elephants across the continent,” Wittemyer added. “It’s an assessment of the status of each population, and unfortunately, most of them are not faring well.”
Changing Distribution
The research explored how African elephants are faring by species and region. In the conflict-stricken Sahel area of northern Africa, elephant numbers have been severely reduced. Eastern and central Africa have experienced declines largely due to ivory poaching, alongside growing human populations and the conversion of wild areas into urban settings that crowd out elephants.
Conversely, elephant populations are prospering in certain regions of southern Africa, especially in Botswana, where protection and sustainable management practices have been implemented.
The authors indicated that the exhaustive assessment of the status of African elephants is critical for making management decisions regarding where to best allocate limited resources for their protection.
“The overall narrative is one of decline, but we emphasize the importance of long-term species stability,” Wittemyer concluded. “I believe we can achieve this in several areas, but not universally.”
