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HomeLocalHarris Gains Traction Among Black Voters in Critical Swing States, Yet Challenges...

Harris Gains Traction Among Black Voters in Critical Swing States, Yet Challenges Persist

 

 

Harris Gains Support with Black Voters in Important Swing States, but Challenges Persist


After being unemployed for two years, Darryl Gatewood recently landed a job as a driver for a pharmaceutical delivery service in suburban Pennsylvania – a well-paying position that includes healthcare benefits.

 

This job reflects an economy that is showing signs of improvement. However, Gatewood is still worried about his financial difficulties and his wife’s health challenges. He stated that the economy is his primary concern in this election year, and as a Black man and registered Democrat in a battleground state, he remains undecided about his presidential vote.

He is contemplating whether to support Democrat Kamala Harris, Republican Donald Trump, or potentially a third-party candidate.

“They say Trump supports the wealthy,” Gates said, 59, “but what will she do for everyone? How will she address the needs of the entire nation?”

 

Support for Harris among Black voters in critical swing states like Michigan and Pennsylvania is on the rise, yet the presumed Democratic nominee must address the concerns of young, low-income, and undecided Black voters who are anxious about escalating grocery prices and housing expenses, as shown in a recent exclusive poll by YSL News/Suffolk University.

This poll, which surveyed 500 Black voters in each state last weekend, found that they prefer Vice President Harris over former President Trump by a ratio of 7 to 1 in Michigan and a similarly strong margin in Pennsylvania.

 

However, the poll also highlighted significant worries among groups most affected by prolonged inflation. If voters like Gatewood decide on a third-party candidate, it could jeopardize Harris’s chances in a competitive national race.

 

As they head into next week’s Democratic National Convention, Harris and her running mate Minnesota Governor Tim Walz are aware that the campaign needs to appeal to uncommitted and third-party voters.

 

“With just 80 days until the election, Harris must continue to connect with young, low-income, and independent voters,” stated David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center.

 

Increasing Enthusiasm

Nonetheless, the poll indicates a growing excitement for Harris’s campaign. She took over the top position on the Democratic ticket in July after President Biden was urged to withdraw from the reelection race.

 

“It seems like a team that was down by 24 points is now even,” said Paleologos. “We’re in the fourth quarter, and no one wants to make a mistake.”

 

Harris has been active on the campaign trail, including her recent rally in Pennsylvania where she introduced Walz as her running mate. She intends to return there this weekend.

 

The Suffolk poll indicated a rise in favorability for Harris in Michigan and Pennsylvania compared to when Biden was in the spotlight.

In Michigan, her favorability increased to 72% against 16% unfavorable, compared to 60% favorable and 24% unfavorable when Biden led the charge in June. In Pennsylvania, her ratings rose to 68% to 19% in August from 55% to 30% in June.

Black voters in these vital swing states, who were disinterested in the presidential race in June, now express strong motivation to vote for Harris. The poll revealed that 77% of those surveyed are now “very motivated” to support Harris, compared to only 52% for Biden in prior responses. In Pennsylvania, motivation for Harris stands at 78%, while 61% felt the same for Biden in June.

“There’s a remarkably high level of enthusiasm now,” Paleologos noted. “The question remains: Is the margin sufficient? Currently, it is not.”

 

However, Harris hasn’t secured the 13 to 1 ratio that Biden enjoyed in 2020, which she likely needs to win these states. “When you’re at 70%, you need to hit 92% based on exit polls,” he explained. “There’s still a distance to cover.”

Engaging Third-Party and Undecided Voters

Despite Harris’s growing support, failing to win over third-party voters may pose a challenge, according to Paleologos.

Nikia Mumin-Washington, 44, might be one of those undecided voters. A retired crossing guard for the Philadelphia Police Department, she mentioned that she is leaning toward voting for academic Cornel West, appreciating his message advocating for unity.

“Not that the others aren’t promoting unity,” she said,

Mumin-Washington shared, “I supported him because he was someone I was familiar with.”

 

A registered member of the Democratic Party, she intends to observe the election’s developments and vote in accordance with her beliefs.

“I prefer to vote according to my own convictions rather than simply following the popular choice,” she stated. “I’m not someone who buys into trends just because they are in vogue.”

In Pennsylvania, 8% of survey participants indicated they might choose from one of four third-party options, including independents such as West and Robert F. Kennedy, alongside the Green Party’s Jill Stein or Libertarian Chase Oliver. In Michigan, 11% of those surveyed expressed a preference for a third-party candidate.

It remains uncertain how many of these candidates will appear on ballots and in which states. RFK has claimed he will appear on ballots in all 50 states, but Democratic efforts to disqualify him have intensified. Recently, he was prevented from being listed on the New York ballot due to incorrectly using a friend’s address in his nomination paperwork.

 

West was recently removed from the Michigan ballot due to technicalities.

 

Tre Pearson, 23, from Mount Clemens, Michigan, mentioned he is still uncertain about his presidential choice. Four years ago, he voted for Trump but backed Biden during the Michigan state primary last February.

“Honestly, it felt like a situation where both candidates were the ‘lesser of two evils,’” Pearson remarked.

Now, with Harris stepping in for Biden, Pearson is reassessing his choices.

“I’m not leaning towards any candidate,” said Pearson, who works in construction and serves in the National Guard, having completed a tour in Syria last year. “I want to support someone who will prioritize the community.”

He highlighted that not only are rising food prices a concern, but affordable housing is also difficult to find. Additionally, job opportunities, particularly in Michigan’s renowned auto sector, have dwindled.

 

Pearson expressed that while he understands Trump’s position, he feels he needs more information before supporting Harris.

“She really needs to connect with her agenda; she should come across as more genuine and relatable,” Pearson advised. “Ultimately, it’s about authenticity because people care more about how you engage than your background.”

 

According to John Cluverius, a political science professor at the University of Massachusetts Lowell, Harris might have more chances to make a connection with these “mixed-bag voters” than Trump, as she is less familiar to them.

“Harris can potentially resonate more with these voters’ sentiments,” Cluverius commented. “Her message of not returning to the past appeals to those frustrated with inflation, abortion rights, and healthcare issues.”

 

If the election is close and her vote could be pivotal, Mumin-Washington indicated she might reconsider her stance on Harris. Trump is not a viable option for her. “At some point, you may prefer to align with the side of good,” she remarked.

 

Economy Top of Mind for Many Black Voters

The economy and rising expenses are key concerns for Black voters in Michigan and Pennsylvania.

This is particularly true for individuals earning below $50,000 a year, as indicated by recent surveys.

For instance, in Pennsylvania during June, 34% of low-income respondents reported a worsening of their financial situation over the past four years, and a similar portion felt it had improved. By August, the figures shifted, with 42% stating they were worse off and only 22% seeing improvement.

“If an economic recovery is occurring nationally, it is not being experienced by low-income Black households,” stated Paleologos. “In fact, the situation has worsened over the last couple of months, presenting a significant challenge for Kamala Harris and the Democrats that they need to address through policy.”

 

Nevertheless, he noted that support for Harris among Black voters remains strong.

“This indicates that despite facing severe economic hardships, many are still committed to voting, perhaps believing that under a Harris administration, conditions will improve,” he concluded.

Other polling organizations echo similar conclusions. According to Terrance Woodbury, co-founder of HIT Strategies, a research firm focused on public opinion, Black voters share similar concerns as others, particularly regarding the rising prices of groceries and housing.

Recognizing this issue, the Harris-Walz campaign unveiled a new agenda aimed at helping financially struggling voters. This plan includes banning unfair price hikes on groceries, setting limits on prescription drug prices, and offering tax credits and benefits to support families and first-time homebuyers.

 

Linnea Faller, a 36-year-old dog walker from Pittsburgh, expressed a desire to learn more before finalizing her voting choice for November.

 

Faller, who is a registered Democrat and voted for Biden in 2020, admitted that she hasn’t been closely following the candidates yet, but she plans to explore their stances on various important issues including education funding for urban schools, affordable housing, homelessness, poverty, crime, and underemployment.

“While I would typically lean towards the Democratic nominee, I don’t feel completely confident about it. I want to make an informed decision,” she stated.

“I’m definitely not voting for Trump. Character matters to me too.”

Though Faller is not well-acquainted with independent candidates, she hasn’t entirely dismissed them either.

Like many Black voters, she feels a sense of pride in having a Black candidate on the ballot.

“I feel a strong urge to support Harris simply because she is a Black, biracial woman,” Faller remarked, noting her less enthusiasm towards Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign. “Despite Harris being somewhat low-profile, I recognize this moment as significant for my community.”